Team Strengths
How fast can you say Kyrie Irving? When I think of #1 overall picks who overachieved in their rookie season, Magic Johnson will always come to mind first (Finals MVP as a rookie? That's just sick). LeBron was also fantastic right out of the gate, far exceeding even the loftiest of expectations. From now on, people will simply have to add Irving to this discussion.
After playing fewer than two dozen games as a collegiate due to injury, nobody thought he would be a franchise type guy. Everyone was wrong. Irving was tremendous in his first season, posting an All-Star caliber PER (21+) and absolutely killing it in several "bellwethers" of stardom: free throw shooting, 3pt shooting, and crunch time playmaking.
So point guard is covered. So is center, played alternately by Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson. Varejao is a well-rounded defensive anchor who can switch the pick and roll and lock down the paint. Thompson, last year's #4 overall, is a long lean leaper who rebounds at a good rate and essentially passes the eye test as an NBA big man. He is only 21 years old, so the development of his game over the next couple seasons will be key. Samardo Samuels, a third big, played surprisingly well last season and should be a solid contributor off the bench.
Byron Scott is a very strong coach. He knows the league well, and has the respect of his players because he has won championships as a player and taken teams to the Finals as a head coach. Chris Paul and Scott overachieved together with the Hornets, and a similar situation is brewing in Cleveland. While the X's and O's of basketball don't typically make the difference between winning and losing, team culture almost always does, and Scott seemed to build a solid foundation for this team moving forward in his first year with the team.
Team Weaknesses
The cupboard is pretty bare on the wings in Cleveland. The team's guards (after Irving) and small forwards include Boobie Gibson - best suited as a backup combo guard - and a smattering of role players. This is a gaping hole the team will have to fill through the draft and either trades or free agency.
The three aforementioned quality bigs all lack in the offense department. The only forward on the team who can score is Antawn Jamison, who could barely guard anyone during his prime. Now he is a straight up liability.
2012 NBA Draft Plan
This team is building around Kyrie Irving. Much like the Thunder used the draft to add Westbrook and Harden to complement Durant, the Cavs will only have a few shots at surrounding Irving with the right talent and this pick is clearly one of them. There are basically four guys in play with this pick, so let's break each one down in terms of fit:
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
MKG brought toughness, heart, defense, and an attacking offensive mentality to each minute of every game he played as a freshman on an NCAA title team. That's a pretty damned good resume. Unfortunately, he has the shooting stroke of 2009 Rajon Rondo. Can it get better? Yes. Does he seem like the type of guy who will work his ass off to reach his potential? Yes. Is he a perfect fit with this team? Maybe. If I were GM Chris Grant, I would take Byron Scott's desire to build his team on defensive principals to heart and strongly consider adding Kidd-Gilchrist if he is on the board.
Bradley Beal
On paper, his type of talent is a better fit next to Irving. He should be a very good off the ball shooter and scorer, which makes sense playing with a scoring point guard. He has good size and strength, if not the explosive athleticism of MKG, but given that he has a sterling reputation as a listener and student of the game, he would likely grow into a quality defender under coach Scott.
Thomas Robinson
Screw conventional wisdom, I think Robinson would be an excellent pick for the Cavs. He is far more polished than Tristan Thompson, with superior footwork and touch around the basket. He's also got a great motor, busting his butt at both ends for buckets blocks and rebounds. His addition would allow the team to move Varejao to pick up a veteran wing, typically the easiest to fill position.
Harrison Barnes
A tantalizing talent, Barnes possesses a prototypical physique for a wing player. He stands taller and reaches longer than a shooting guard, and he moves quicker and shoots better than a small forward. But how good does he want to be? Playing second fiddle to Irving and receiving the tutelage of Byron Scott might be just what he needs to flourish and become an elite scorer and defender. Or it might bruise his ego and prevent him from anything better than putting up numbers. He might end up mediocre, a fate the Cavs can ill afford.
The verdict? In all likelihood, two out of those four will be selected 2&3 and Barnes won't be one of them. Frankly, I'd take Barnes off the board. He's just too risky, and they already rolled the dice with a #4 pick in Thompson last year. That leaves only one player between MKG, Beal, and Robinson on the board when they select, any of whom the Cavs should happily snap up.
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