NBA Draft 2018 Lottery: Combo "Best Choice" and Mock

After a year hiatus (new job, new baby), I have returned to spending too much time thinking about the draft! This year, I've decided to do two parallel drafts. One, which I am calling "Best choice", is what I would do if I were the GM for each team. The Mock takes into account what teams seem likely to do based on expectations for how they might behave given the context (past decisions, off court considerations, etc.).

Enjoy!

Pick	Team	Pick (best choice)	Best choice comment	Pick (mock)	Mock comment
1	Phoenix Suns	Luka Doncic	What Doncic has accomplished at age 19 is amazing. His anticipation and speed reading the game are upper echelon, and if he gets his body into peak form with NBA diet/training/sleeping, he has the chance to be the engine behind a top 5 offense. To me, that's the highest ceiling in this draft.	DeAndre Ayton	On the Monday before Thursday's draft, all signs point to Phoenix taking Ayton. He's clearly an impressive run/jump athlete with good skill, motor, and feel. If he can value winning over stats, he could have an outstanding career.
2	Sacramento Kings	DeAndre Ayton	This is a farily easy choice for the Kings, who almost immediately get a replacement for DeMarcus Cousins as a dominant offensive cente.	Luka Doncic	There is plenty of smoke to suggest that the Kings won't pick Luka, possibly out of fears that he would stay in Madrid. However, with Vlade and Peja involved in the franchise, I am dubious that they would pass on his talent. They could also probably get a nice haul trading this pick if Luka is on the board.
3	Atlanta Hawks	Mohammed Bamba	The Hawks are nowhere, and need upside. I think Porter's injury concerns are just too much here, and Bagley is too limited defensively to ever be a true star.	Michael Porter Jr.	The allure of a 6'11" forward who can shoot on the move might prove too much for Atlanta to pass up.
4	Memphis Grizzlies	Jaren Jackson Jr.	This is a tough spot, as Porter has more upside but I have him in a Tier below due to concerns that he won't make his teammates better. Jackson is a versatile piece who can learn alongside Gasol and eventually take over.	Jaren Jackson Jr.	Ditto
5	Dallas Mavericks	Michael Porter Jr.	This feels like a good fit for Porter. With Barnes on the team, he won't have to be the go-to wing scorer from day 1, but with both guys alongside Dennis Smith Jr., they have a good amount of spacing and athleticism.	Mohammed Bamba	The Mavs don't have much at center, so this is a safe pick at this point.
6	Orlando Magic	Trae Young	Orlando desperately needs a point guard, playmaking, and shooting. Trae can be all three. Or he might be unplayably unathletic. But it will be interesting to watch.	Marvin Bagley III	Based on his college production and sheer athleticism, it might be a surprise to see Bagley slip this far. If he is on the board, he might be too hard for Orlando to pass on.
7	Chicago Bulls	Miles Bridges	A bit of a forgotten man in the lead up to the draft (none of the web sites or podcasts I follow seem to be talking about where he will get drafted), he has the size, athleticism, skill, and shooting to toggle between the forward positions. This type of versatility is something Chicago has repeatedly emphasized.	Kevin Knox	For some reason I have the feeling that the Bulls will jump on the Knox bandwagon. He is young and versatile, but may not have enough pop to his game to be more than a good role player.
8	Cleveland Cavaliers	Marvin Bagley III	This is a turning point into a large next tier. Bagley is a big name, and could be useful in a trade for a veteran to entice LeBron to stay. He's not a good fit next to Nance, as they are very similar players.	Trae Young	Another big name, in this scenario he falls and becomes a value pick. He may not be able to play in the Finals, but he'd get plenty of open looks next to LeBron or plenty of bad ones if the Cavs need to rebuild.
9	New York Knicks	Wendell Carter	With KP's knee injury and general lack of durability across the season, having another high quality center option is important for the future of this franchise.	Wendell Carter	Ditto
10	Philadelphia 76ers	Mikal Bridges	Everyone and his mother have this pick set already, with the Philly ties and fit alongside starts already in place.	Mikal Bridges	Ditto
11	Charlotte Hornets	Kevin Knox	This team has so many questions. Taking a high riser like Knox is an easy call.	Miles Bridges	In this scenario, Knox and Bridges are just swapped. The logic is similar
12	LA Clippers	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Lead ballhandler is up for grabs on this team, and the Clippers have two interesting options here with Gilgeous-Alexander. I like G-A's defensive upside and length over Sexton, but it's a tough call.	Colin Sexton	Giving myself two flips of the coin here, but Sexton reminds some of Eric Bledsoe in his relentless energy which fits the Doc Rivers team philosophy rather well.
13	LA Clippers	Robert Williams	The comparison to a young DeAndre Joran is uncanny, right down to the terrible free throw shooting. They could draft him and simply let DeAndre walk in free agency, rather than tying down a huge cap number for a team which is rebuilding on the fly.	Robert Williams	Ditto
14	Denver Nuggets	Josh Okogie	I love Okogie's combitation of length, youth, leaping ability, shooting, and creation potential. He was on a bad team and asked to do too much, so his efficiency wasn't great. But look at his highlights; I think he's the best dunker in the class, and his 3pt volume and FT% indicate he should be an adequate shooter. His lack of defensive IQ is troubling, but he has the physical tools to make up for it and maybe someday be very good on that end.	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	I love his fit next to Jamal Murray. He's got the length to cover both guard positions, and can free Murray up to be his better actualized self as a lethal secondary playmaker, rather than an average primary one.