Thursday, July 5, 2012

2012 NBA Draft in Review: Recent History Comparison

Plenty of other people (here and here) do a great job handing out report-card style grades for each NBA team after a draft. I'm going to take a different approach and draw comparisons between the haul brought in by this year's lottery teams to previous drafts to try and gain some historical perspective on how the night unfolded. I'm not comparing careers mind you, as we only have one side of the equation available. I'll keep things to the last ten years or so, because that's how long I've personally followed the draft with real interest.

New Orleans Hornets 

Anthony Davis (#1) and Austin Rivers (#10)


For this draft, we only need to go back one year when the Cavs brought in Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson. Though the expectations were tempered in comparison, both Irving and Anthony Davis were widely considered worthy of a top overall pick. Thompson and Rivers both have top ten talent, but have obvious limitations in their game which may prevent them from achieving beyond starter-level success in pro basketball.

Charlotte Bobcats

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (#2)

This reminds me of Michael Beasley being selected second after Derrick Rose in 2008. Miami had little specific interest in the monstrously productive Kansas State forward, and tried to trade down repeatedly to get OJ Mayo and one more asset. The 'Cats had similar problems finding trading partners to get multiple assets for this pick, and like Miami drafted the consensus #2 overall player without much enthusiasm.

Washington Wizards

Bradley Beal (#3)

Similar to the Nuggets grabbing Carmelo Anthony third overall in 2003, the Wizards got the player they really wanted to fall to them. If Beal had gone #2, DC would have been forced to choose from a limited group of players who don't fit their real need: outside shooting.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Dion Waiters (#4) and Jared Cunningham (#24).

As others have noted, this pick is reminiscent of the Thunder picking Russel Westbrook #4 overall in 2008 (they also had the #24 pick that year, and got Serge Ibaka). Neither player was a primary offensive option in college, often playing the role of sixth man (Waiters never started last year at Syracuse), but both produced highlights, scoring at will with agressive drives to the rim. I'm sure Cavs fans would be delighted if this pick turned out to be half as successful as OKC's. Cunningham doesn't appear to have the upside that Ibaka had, so this comparison wears down a bit.

Sacramento Kings

Thomas Robinson (#5)

In 2003, Dwyane Wade was just sitting there for the Miami Heat to take. Nobody knew he would be a Finals MVP in a few short years, but Pat Riley loved the guard from Marquette and was crossing his fingers that things would play out the way they did. Sacramento really needs a guy like Robinson and had him in their sights the whole time. When available at five, they snapped him up greedily.

Portland Trailblazers

Damien Lillard (#6) and Myers Leonard (#11)

It's actually quite rare for teams to have two lottery picks, but it's happened five times in the last two drafts. Last year, the Bobcats took an older lead guard who might not be a point and an athletic big who had very little production to look at. Sound familiar? The Kemba Walker / Bismack Biyombo draft is quite similar to this one for the Blazers.

Golden State Warriors 

Harrison Barnes (#7)

Rudy Gay was once a top tier prospect but fell in the draft because he didn't look like a top-five pick on the court at UConn. Memphis, sensing a good value as Gay slid behind seven other players, traded Shane Battier to Houston to get him. While no trade was involved, the Warriors were similarly surprised to find Barnes just sitting there.

The Toronto Raptors

Terrence Ross (#8)

As painful as this is, this pick harkens back to 2004 when these same Raptors took Rafael Araujo eighth overall. Nobody outside Toronto considered wither player a top ten pick, but the Raptors focused in on need over talent. Eerily, both years they passed on a dude named Andre (Iguodala and Drummond respectively) who went immediately afterwords...

Detroit Pistons

Andre Drummond (#9)

As I just said, this is almost an exact replication of the 2004 scenario. In this case the Pistons, befuddled that the sixth overall rated prospect in the draft was available at #9, picked first and will ask questions later.

Houston Rockets

Jeremy Lamb (#12), Royce White (#16), and Terrence Jones (#18)

Having three picks between 10-20 hasn't happened before that I can recall, so this is an odd situation. At least of of these players will probably be traded this offseason, so I'll flag this one as TBD. The 2004 Utah draft with #'s 14, 16, and 21 (Kris Humphires, Kirk Snyder, and Pavel Podkolzine) does not set a great precident.

Phoenix Suns

Kendall Marshall (#13)

With Chris Bosh on his way out in the 2010 offseason, the Raptors picked Ed Davis at thirteen. He couldn't score the way Bosh can, but he was predicted to have value as a rebounder. Similarly, Kendall Marshall is nowhere near Steve Nash as a shooter, but he does have great passing ability. In both cases, these teams knew they were going to have to try and patch a sinking ship with duct tape, and that it probably wouldn't do much to save them.