This is a particularly odd draft. While it is highly unlikely that any individual player from this draft will shift the balance of power in the league, there are many teams who seem only one or two moves away from being dangerous. Not contender dangerous, but 'tough first round opponent' dangerous. With this year's playoffs appear to be signaling a transition phase in the league (Hello Bulls, Griz, & Thunder; goodbye Lakers, Spurs and Celts), lottery teams this year have to feel that the bottom four playoff spots in the East and the bottom two in the West are in play for next year. Weak or not, the draft is an important step in those teams' plans. While 2012 will likely be a landmark draft, this year is intriguing because of all the uncertainty. Here's a break-down of the top 10 picks, and what these teams might be thinking.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Clippers)
First they hire Vinny del Negro over Duane Casey and other more qualified coaches, then they trade Blake's "dunk muse" (and Baron's outrageously huge contract) and this #1 overall pick to Cleveland (unprotected) to get Mo Williams. I say this as a Los Angelino who loves having him in town for many reasons: Blake should leave after his four year sentence in Clipperland. This series of decisions is proof positive that the Clippers organization is incapable of contending at a championship level.
But on to the Cavs, who have to feel pretty savvy right about now, scoring the #1 and #4 pick in this draft, effectively kicking off the post-LeBron rebuilding era. The bad news is that their roster is probably the least talented in the U.S. (sorry Raptors fans, too soon?). And Andy Varejao, their best building block, suffered a fairly unusual/nasty foot injury. And this year's draft has no clear cut #1. And most scouts agree picks 3-12 are about equal (at best). And the depth of this draft is at power forward, the only position for which they have two rotation guys already signed (JJ Hickson and AntawnJamison).
However, this series of unfortunate facts doesn't mean Cleveland fans have nothing to get excited about. There are some very interesting options, and almost no matter who they pick, they will be adding two guys who will get lots of minutes ahead of poor performers from last year. This draft will be a seminal moment in second-year GM Chris Grant's career, with a number of directions he could go with the first pick:
- Option 1 (play it safe): Kyrie Irving, PG Duke. This is what amounts to a safe top pick in this draft, though Irving only played 11 games for Coach K due to injury. By all accounts he's a great kid with a solid attitude and the basketball IQ you'd want in an NBA point guard. He also shoots the ball quite well. He lacks elite size, speed, or athleticism, but is no slouch in those categories either. In a conference with D-Rose, Rondo, Deron Williams, John Wall, and Brandon Jennings, getting a high quality point is probably near the top of the Cavs offseason wishlist. Irving gives them the best chance to get one.
- Option 2 (take a risk): Enes Canter, F/C Turkey. Before the 2008 draft, this guy would probably be a lock for #1 overall. Since then guys like Rose, Westbrook, Wall, etc. have taken the league by storm, and point guards have become the it position in the draft (see Irving above). Both big men and internationals are on the down-slope right now, which is bad for Canter but possibly good for the Cavs (see pick #4). Canter is by far the most promising big man in the draft, combining a real on-court toughness with soft shooting touch. He should be able to rebound and score from day one, and when a player can provide both of those teams usually snap them up. The big asterisk is that no one really knows if this prospect sketch is accurate or just an idealization. The truth is that he didn't play in college or ever play meaningful minutes in Europe. Much like Brandon Jennings a couple years ago, Canter is essentially a high school prospect only a year older. That didn't stop Dwight Howard, Garnet, Kobe, etc., so someone will take the risk at select the Turk this year, almost certainly in the top 5. For the Cavs, he could form a great 1-2 punch in the frontcourt with Varejao. They should be very good on the boards, and their strengths appear to complement well, sort of like of lite version of Noah and Boozer in Chicago. One note though, they may think they can get him at #4, so why pick him #1?
- Option 3 (take a big risk): Derrick Williams, F Arizona. This seems very unlikely, as he is a similar player in many ways to Antawn Jamison. His contract expires after the 2011-12 season however, so if they feel Williams is the best talent they should take him and use Jamison as a trade chip or simply let him walk. Unlike Canter, Williams produced in a big way in college and is very unlikely to be around at #4.
- Option 4 (get out!): Trade pick. There are some teams who would probably love to get their hands on Irving, including Sacramento, Houston, Utah, and Toronto just to name a few. All those teams are armed with assets and draft picks, and Cleveland needs upgrades at multiple roster spots. Just a hypothetical, Utah could send the #3 pick, Milsap, and Devin Harris to Cleveland for the #1, Jamison, and Gibson (http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=6l5ghx5). Utah would clear minutes for Derrick Favors and could start Jamison on the wing while picking up a potential star point guard. They would have another lottery pick (#12) to fill in one more hole. Cleveland gets starters in Harris and Milsap, and two top-4 picks. They could take Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker plus Canter or Williams. Win-win, right?
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
This is an odd, imbalanced team with an odd, potentially mentally imbalanced GM. They do have some young talent, notably in rebounding machine Kevin Love and versatile scorer Michael Beasly. They also picked up Anthony Randolph for a song, who still looks like a dangerous prospect at both ends. The problem is the pieces don't fit well together and they don't seem to have a vision for the team on the court (as opposed to on paper). Ricky Rubio looms large as their potential point guard of the future, but who knows if he'll ever play a game for them? This draft pick is unlikely to push them into contention, but they have to do something.
- Option 1 (get lucky): Irving. If Kyrie doesn't go number one, he's the obvious pick here. They can move on from the Rubio debacle and have someone to pass the ball to Love and Beasly. They might actually be a dangerous team on offense with him.
- Option 2 (take a gamble): Canter. Their starting center last year was Darko. His PER was 12.3. Ugh. He might be a serviceable back-up, but he just doesn't play well enough to merit a starting job. Canter and Love could be a box-out nightmare for opposing teams and potentially fit well on offense. If Canter can be a starting center, this pick totally works. If not, they would be in trouble.
- Option 3 (exacerbate roster imbalance): Derrick Williams. He's probably the best talent available at #2, but he makes less than no sense for the Wolves. He and Beasly are very similar, so without a trade of some kind I don't see how they could be on the court together. Same goes for Randolph.
- Option 4 (be sensible): Trade(s). This pick doesn't have nearly the value that the #1 does, but packaging it with a good young player on a rookie contract (Love, Beasly, or Randolph) could really sweeten the pot. Example: Kings send Jason Thompson and the #7 pick to Minny for the #2 pick and Martel Webster's contract (http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=6dumo34). Thompson would be an upgrade at the 5 over Darko, they get rid of Websters semi-terrible contract, and can grab a rotation guy at #7. Not great, but a nice pickup. For Sacramento, they clear minutes for Cousins and could add Williams to play opposite him.
3. Utah Jazz (via Nets)
When they drafted Deron Williams, he had the unenviable task of filling John Stockton's shortshorts. Now Favors and this pick, the bounty of sending him to New Jersey, will have to make up for the loss of another All-Star point guard. Yikes. The Jazz reached a bit when they thought Milsap and Jefferson could coexist. It turns out they are far too similar (good on offense and rebounding, not so good on defense). Trading one of them could be the key to turning things around, as they both have value around the league. Devin Harris is a starter but not a star, so they won't be afraid to try and replace him. The huge need though is on the wing, but there just aren't any wing players who merit a #3 overall pick this year.
- Option 1, 1a (get lucky): Derrick Williams or Irving. If either are on the board, they are easy choices as described above.
- Option 2 (exacerbate roster imbalance): Canter. They already have Okur, Jefferson, Milsap , and Favors so it wouldn't make much sense to add another big. If Irving and Williams go 1-2, he might be the best talent on the board. Adding him would allow them to trade any of the first three guys on that list which would allow them to pick up a veteran wing player. Or two.
- Option 3 (reach): Brandon Knight, Kawhi Leonard, Euro F. After the first two or three guys, the talent really levels off. There are a number of players in the next tier who are all mixed bags. Brandon Knight has a high ceiling but probably wouldn't help them right now. He isn't ready to start as an NBA point guard, but he is a well-regarded prospect and could end up being the best player in the draft. Kawhi Leonard isn't a sexy pick, but he is a very solid defender and a tough guy. He has been compared favorably to Gerald Wallace, though he doesn't has as much size. He could fill in immediately as the starting small forward, assuming AK47 is gone. Beyond those two, if Utah falls in love with one of the 4 other European forwards expected to be lottery picks, they could go in that direction.
- Option 4 (be sensible): Trade(s). I really think the Cleveland trade (above) would make sense for them. In a normal draft, they could package their two picks and a contract or two to pick up a star player. But it's a weird year, and I doubt there will be much interest in their second pick.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
What they do at #1 will likely have a big impact on where they go with #4. Assuming they go with Irving #1, as most expect, picking up a wing or a big at #4 is the obvious move.
- Option 1, 1a (get lucky): Canter or Williams. If either player falls to them here, the choice is obvious. Williams would have the edge if somehow both are on the board.
- Option 2 (play it safe): Kawhi Leonard, F San Diego State. I think Leonard gives them something they really lack, a solid performer on the wing. He can start from day one and won't need the ball to add to the team. They may be better off with him in the end if Canter and Williams go 2/3.
- Option 3 (take a big swing): Jan Vesely F (JV1), Czech Republic; Bismack Biyombo F/C, Spain; Jonas Valanciunas F (JV2), Lithuania; Brandon Knight, PG Kansas. Knowing they are getting a starter at #1, the Cavs may choose to take a chance on an upside guy here. Vesely is an athletic forward who plays with high energy. Biyombo has a great NBA body and will likely be a defensive force in the league. Valanciunas (JV2? He needs a nickname stat) is skilled, tough, and tall but might be a few years away from coming to the US. If they don't select Irving at #1 (because of a trade or otherwise), Knight makes sense for them as a point guard to build around.
5. Toronto Raptors
Canada's basketball team is in turmoil. The have two solid but unspectacular young guys in DeMar Derozan and Ed Davis and the serviceable LeandroBarbosa. Beyond that, it's pretty ugly. Calderon is on the books for two more years at $9M, and while an efficient scorer and distributor he is not the long-term solution. Former top pick overall Bargnani is a good weapon offensively, but is probably suited best as a sixth man because of his atrocious defense. Their best move is probably to stink it up another year and try to score a star in the 2012 mega-draft.
- Option 1 (play it safe): Brandon Knight or Kawhi Leonard. While the teams ahead of him would consider it risky to take Knight, it would be a smart move for the Raptors. He could learn as a back-up and not make the team too much better next year. Leonard is another safe pick who would fill a need. His lower ceiling might scare off a team like Toronto however.
- Option 2 (be typical): Vesely or Biyombo. The perception around the league is that the Raptors are basically a quasi-glorified Euroleague team. Picking a Vesely to join Bargnani, Kleiza, Calderon, etc. would be all too typical. But Jan's athleticism and toughness would be a good fit, so it's not a bad option. While he doesn't fit the stereotype as well, Biyombo is another international player with a high ceiling Toronto might consider.
- Option 3 (reach): Kemba Walker, PG UConn; Marcus Morris, F Kansas; Chris Singleton F, Florida State. If they aren't convinced in any of the international prospects, the may have to reach a little on an American player. If he reaches his potential, any of these guys could provide a big lift. But can Toronto afford the risk?
6. Washington Wizards
Well they don't need a point guard. Last year's #1 overall John Wall is already a very good two-way player and will only improve. He would be the consensus #1 in this draft by a country mile. Beyond that, there isn't much to like in Washington. Javale McGee is a nice energy/rebounding/defense guy and they have some scorers on the wing (Jordan Crawford and Nick Young who is a free agent). Andray Blatche has become legendary for his poor shot selection but does have talent. The Zards have the luxury of taking the best player available and sitting back for another couple years. They won't get anywhere with Rashard Lewis' dead weight contract around their neck, so two more years of losing is all but guaranteed.
- Option 1 (play it safe safe): Best player available. This is really hard to peg. Other than Knight and Walker, any of the guys in this range are possible. Leonard, Biyombo, and Vesely are probably the leading candidates.
- Option 2 (plan for the long term): Jonas Valanciunus, F Lithuania. If the three forwards in option 1 are off the board, they might do well to pick Jonas here. He will likely spend the next year or two in Europe because of a buyout issue. Otherwise, he would likely be off the board by #6. Much like Toronto, Washington basically wants to continue to be terrible next year, so stashing a top prospect overseas shouldn't deter them too much. If they get another star in next year's draft to pair with Wall, then bring over Jonas the following year... hey at least it is a plan.
7. Sacramento Kings
Failing to nab a top pick has to be a disappointment for this franchise. People were honestly discussing this draft pick's effect of the team's future relocation prior to the lottery. I think that was an exaggeration, but Sacramento is possibly the team that needs a player like Irving the most.
- Option 1 (be smart): Kemba Walker. If he is available, he adds much of what the Kings are lacking. The general consensus is that Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton could play the wings together if they had a distributer point guard. Kemba is obviously a scorer first, but his love of the game and well-documented heart could change the whole mentality of the team.
- Option 2 (pull off a miracle): Trade up for Brandon Knight or Kemba walker. They could try to sell the Cavs on a trade like this: Jason Thompson, DonteGreen, and the #7 pick for the #4 pick and Daniel Gibson's bad contract (http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=6xw7yox). If both are gone at #7 the next best point guard (Jimmer!) makes no sense for them. If they could somehow pry a top pick and get either of those guys or Irving, they'd do it. Only Evans and Cousins are untrade-able, but I'm not sure they have the assets to pull it off.
- Option 3 (take a risk): Tristan Thompson, F/C Texas; other. Like Washington, they may be forced into a best-player-available scenario with slimpickings. This is the first team where Tristan Thompson makes sense. He is long and athletic and could potentially be a good on-court pairing with Cousins.
8. Detroit Pistons
This is the fourth team in a row in dire straits. Welcome to the NBA Lottery. Detroit is saddled by multiple bad contracts, most notably Richard Hamilton. Their cup over-runeth with combo guards (Stuckey, Gordon, Bynum) and their only solid big is last year's successful lottery pick Gregg Monroe.Tayshaun is probably leaving town in free agency leaving a hole on the wing. Can Charlie V or Austin Daye fill it? Unknown. The good news is that power forward is a need for them (Monroe is a center in the 2011 NBA, but Villanueva is a terrible fit with him), and that is the deepest position in this draft.
- Option 1 (fill a need): Biyombo, Tristan Thompson, Vesely. Any of these three could fit well with Monroe up front. Many have likened Biyombo to Ben Wallace, which would be perfect for them.
- Option 2 (reach): There are a couple interesting ways they could go if they decide to really take a risk. Either Morris twin could play right away for them. Kenneth Fareid, F Moorestown State is an intruiging option, maybe the best natural rebounder since Rodman. Jordan Hamilton, F Texas might make sense as a Tayshaun replacement.
9. Charlotte Bobcats
Yikes. Team five with too many holes to mention. Tyrus Thomas and Stephen Jackson are their only real talents, yet somehow they don't have any accumulated assets. They have some cap space, but don't seem interested in renting it for players or picks. It's almost eerie how bad they look on paper. And they are paying $16M for Boris Diaw and Desagana Diop next season. Woof. There aren't even any UNC players to reach for to generate interest this year.
The brain-trust of this team (owner/decider/G.O.A.T. MJ and head coach Paul Silas) are believers in good old American hoopsters because they are good old American hoopsters. Jordan's track record on drafting is pure disaster. Some believe he lost confidence in D.C., others believe he simply doesn't put in the work as a scout and player evaluator. Very few believe it's just bad luck, but take a look at his two biggest whiffs: the drafts in both 2001 (Kwame) and 2006 (Adam Morrison) played out against conventional wisdom and bit MJ squarely in the rear.
- Option 1 (get lucky): Kawhi Leonard. When I run some mock drafts, there are a number of totally reasonable scenarios where Leonard slips to #9. I think this would be a no-brainer for the Bobcats.
- Option 2 (find an under-rated collegian): This is a difficult team to predict because of the unconventional front office. MJ will pick a guy based on his gut, which I won't presume to understand. I think he'll be deciding between Tristan Thompson, Marcus Morris, Chris Singleton, and Jordan Hamilton.
- Option 3 (best Euro available): If Leonard is off the board, that means that on of the JV's or Biyombo is probably on it. I think most scouts would rank all three ahead of the U.S. prospects listed in Option 2, but recent history tells us the Bobcats are wary of international talent.
10. Milwaukee Bucks
This is the first lottery team that can expect to compete for a playoff spot this year even if this pick is a total bust. Last year was one of those "you've GOT to be kidding me!" seasons, with injuries piling up much faster than wins. Their core of Bogut and Jennings is very strong defensively, and free throw machine Corey Maggette gives them good ballhogging minutes on the wing. John Salmons was a big disappointment, crashing back to earth after three peak seasons. If they can find a scorer who can guard either forward position, it will allow them to play Mbah a Moute more which will really toughen up their defense.
- Option 1 (play it safe): Marcus Morris, Kenneth Fareid, Chris Singleton. These three guys are all pretty good fits with the Buck's system. Morris plays a bit like Drew Gooden, Fareid is a high motor (Skiles-friendly) type player, and Singleton is a weapon on defense. I think these guys could crack the rotation and maybe even start for them down the road.
- Option 2 (be bold): Donatas Motiejunas F, Lithuania. He's a twenty-year-old seven-foot skinny scorer from Europe. Thirteen years ago, the Bucks drafted a similar prospect and traded him to Dallas for the late Robert Traylor. While no one expects Motiejunas to become the "next Dirk" (there never will be another player like Nowitzki), drafting him now would be a high risk/reward pick. With the luxury of a solid roster and coaching staff, the Bucks might roll the dice here.
