From what I've seen (mostly in this fantastic DraftExpress scouting video), Mirotic seems to have a ground-based offensive game based on clever shot-making and an accurate 3pt set shot. That's a nice combination offensively, and at 23 years old Mirotic should be valuable as a bench scorer in the NBA right away. He has played at an All-Star level for Real Madrid for the past 18 months or so, including earning something called the Copa del Rey MVP, which sounds like a nice piece of hardware.
It is becoming more and more apparent that one should not ignore steals when evaluating prospects, and in this category Mirotic appears to be average for forwards at about 1 steal per game. While he's rightfully not known for his defense, this does not appear to be a "red flag" indicator (as it has been for some recent college prospects) that he will be unable to handle the speed of the NBA game.
The Bulls used three assets (1st rounder, 2nd rounder, cash) to get his draft rights, and the 2014 off-season is the first year the Bulls are allowed (under the CBA) to negotiate with Mirotic and Real Madrid outside the limits of the rookie pay scale. Team management has said all along that they hope to bring Mirotic over to the NBA this year, and everything points that way.
But how much will it take to get Mirotic to come over? That's a difficult question, and one GM Gar Forman is probably losing sleep over these days. Determining his worth is tricky; player comparisons mostly don't make sense because he didn't play college ball and few players have come over from Europe at this point in their careers. In the last few years, Ricky Rubio is the highest profile European player to stay overseas before coming to the states. But he came in on the rookie scale which, as a top 5 pick, was generous enough.
Best Case Scenario
In a small sample size of 21 games, Mirotic is scoring about 20 points and 7 rebounds per 36 minutes in Europe. Translating European numbers directly makes some really bad assumptions, but we can use these metrics to set a reasonable ceiling on Mirotic's offensive production over the next couple years.
Here's a list of players with 19-22 points per 36 and 6.5-8.5 rebounds per 36 who played enough minutes to qualify for the scoring title: via basketball-reference.com. The average win shares for these 14 player seasons was 8.4
We can use that win share ballpark and some other information we know about Mirotic (he's a forward who shoots and makes lots of threes) to set some high water mark comparisons. Here are all the forwards in the past 10 years who were in the neighborhood of 8.4 win shares per season, and hit league average or above on 3pt shots: via basketball-reference.com. The names you see there are Paul Pierce, Danny Granger, Rashard Lewis, and Antawn Jamison.
Again, these are best case comparisons using some crude metrics and offense only. One of the biggest problems is that these players all logged heavy minutes, which Mirotic is unlikely to do with Taj Gibson the likely starter.
But I've tried a bunch of different comparisons, and Jamison keeps coming up. As an offensive-minded hybrid forward with range, their games seem to converge. While I don't think Mirotic will be as good on offense - or as bad on defense - as Jamison, it's one of the best comparisons I can find. Unfortunately, Jamison's salary history isn't very useful, as he was overpaid from 2002-2012 due to his big per game offensive numbers.
If Mirotic does play up to near Jamison's level, he's probably worth $8M-$10M per year as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate.
Worst Case Scenario
The true worst case scenario is that Mirotic is awful on defense and not quick enough to get his shot off on offense, and can't crack the rotation. In that case, any salary is a drain. But assuming he's minimally useful as a floor-spacing big off the bench, he would be of some value as a role player.
It turns out, bench forwards who hit 3 point shots are rare in today's NBA (via basketball-reference.com). Mirza Teletovic of the Nets is one such player, jacking a whopping 4.6 threes per game, but making them at a healthy 38% clip. Teletovic makes $3M per year and is probably a good bargain given his shooting prowess.
It's possible, albeit unlikely, that Mirotic will come over and immediately start putting up similar shooting, rebounding, and steals numbers to his Real Madrid days. If that happens, he'll be a borderline All-Star and worthy of a seven figure per year deal. But there has to be a serious discount because he hasn't yet proven that his Europeans stats will translate to the NBA. A fair compromise might be a three year deal at $4-6M per year. That way Chicago is protected in case he's not as good (or significantly better) than advertised and Nikola scores $12-18 million bucks to come play in the states for a couple years.
