Sunday, July 20, 2014

The east: It really isn't so bad any more

The balance of power has shifted again in the NBA. Some of the changes are more subtle than the conference's two best players coming back home (James from Miami and Rose from the surgeon's table). Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson switching teams, the return of Al Horford, and the growth of all those Canadians should have a serious impact. Overall, I think the conference is much stronger now that in was in 2013-14. There are clearly 8 playoff teams now, listed below. None of the top five teams would shock me if they were to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals in 2015.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
The best basketball player in the world plays for this team, if you haven't heard. LeBron with 7 average players has a chance to make the finals every year. With any luck, one or several of Irving, Waiters, Thompson, Wiggins, Varejao, and Bennett will prove above average. Also, Kevin Love.

2. Chicago Bulls
Even if Derrick Rose isn't a major factor, this is a dangerous team. Defense will always be a strength under Thibs, and they may have the best front court in the league. Adding a two-time champion in Gasol (who was awesome offensively last year), the best player in Europe, and the NCAA national college player of the year give this team incredible depth. This team looks like a title contender, at least on paper.

3. Washington Wizards
Stealing Paul Pierce is an underrated off-season move. In addition to adding gravitas and championship experience, he can play small-ball 4 with Gortat when Nene is out. Their soon-to-be-epic back court should only improve, and last year's lottery pick Otto Porter looks to have gained major confidence headed into this season as Ariza's replacement.

4. Toronto Raptors
Without making any serious changes to the rotation, the Raps are betting that another year together and more development from young studs DeRozan and Valanciunas will be enough to contend in the East. I tend to agree.

5. Charlotte Hornets
No longer the Bobcats, no longer a Joke. While power forward is a position of weakness, this team is suddenly loaded with talent. Getting Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson in consecutive summers is a major coup for this franchise. They now have two creative ball-handlers (Lance and Kemba), the league's best post-up center offensively, a terrific coach, and good role players. Nobody will want to play the Hornets. If lottery pick Noah Vonleh can step in and provide floor spacing and rim protection by season's end, this team could make a very deep run.

6. Indiana Pacers
The Pacers trajectory has tailed off dramatically, to the point where I don't think Frank Vogel is guaranteed to make it through the season with his job. They will likely sport a top 5 defense and get into the playoffs without any trouble. But there is no end in sight for the offensive woes of this team.

7. Atlanta Hawks
Similar to Chicago, the Hawks were without their best player last season and still looked like a real playoff team. Having Horford back will make the Hawks far more competitive at both ends. Their depth isn't great, especially on the wings, but they play an interchangeable style and have a good coach so I think they are on the fringe of truly competing for a spot in the East Finals.

8. Miami Heat
LeBron left, dropping the Heat out of Finals contention. But they rebounded nicely by signing Bosh and Deng. Wade is clearly on his last legs and can't carry the team for long stretches, but look for Eric Spoelstra to prove his worth as a coach this year; he really is one of the best. Their ceiling is probably a tough first-round battle, but we're talking about the 8th best team in the East here, so that's a dramatic improvement over previous sub-500 East playoff squads.

Fighting for that 8 spot:
Nets: despite Brook Lopez returning, the loss of Pierce is just too much for Brooklyn.
Knicks: sorry Melo, I just don't think there's enough talent around you in Manhattan. Love the Cleanthony Early pick though.
Pistons: I have no clue what Stan Van Gundy is up to, and neither do you. Maybe there's some voodoo magic out there and he can flip Josh Smith and Gregg Monroe into some better fitting pieces around the terrifying Andre Drummond.

The other teams in the East are all terrible. Terrible. You might see some inflated win totals among the teams listed above because of the competitive imbalance.