2013 NBA Draft Grades (Lottery)

"Judge the ball while it's in the air."

I love this coaching cliche because it jibes with my opinion that decision-makers should be judged on their ability to come to logical, evidence-based conclusions in the moment. On the court, this statement places shot selection above the result, be it swish or brick.

Applying this idea to roster management, I think the best time to hand out marks is when there's been just enough time to let the dust settle but before any serious outcomes can be measured. Nobody knows how these young men will develop or get injured or fizzle or bloom, so opinion and conjecture are actually appropriate.

With that in mind, here's my preseason draft grades for the top 13 picks in the draft:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers select Anthony Bennett:
B+
I can't very well hand out a poor grade after I pitched the idea of Bennett as a good idea for the #1 pick on this very blog, can I? I still like this pick because Bennett does multiple things well: shooting from mid-range, muscling his way into the paint, and rebounding. He's young and athletic and showed more basketball skill than nearly anyone else in this class. He doesn't look like a #1, but there simply wasn't one this year.

2. Orlando Magic select Victor Oladipo
B+
Oladipo has basketball nerds falling in love with him. Bill Simmons has repeatedly said that the worst case scenario for him is Tony Allen. That level of infatuation is borderline intoxication. Allen is a no-brainer first-team all defender, and there's really no evidence that Oladipo is world-class. Yet. I agree that he might get there and his offensive game has looked really good over the past year, so I'm excited to see how he turns out. This would have been an A if Noel weren't on the board.

3. Washington Wizards select Otto Porter
D+
This is where it gets ugly. Apparently, the Wiz had decided on Porter ahead of time and just ignored Nerlens Noel. The talent gap between Porter and Noel is huge, and the Wizards have no future bigmen in the pipeline. With Martel Webster already slotted in as a 3-and-D wing player, there was no positional need either. The only reason this isn't and F is because Porter will probably be a solid sixth man or starter for a playoff team next year and that's a clean score for a draft this top-light.

4. Charlotte Bobcats select Cody Zeller
D-
At least he isn't hurt. That's about the best praise I can lavish upon this shockingly poor selection. Zeller has very good skill and size for the PF position, but is a bad rebounder and projects as an average or below average defender at best. If Noel were off the board, I would have gone C+ here, but the Bobcats desperately need an inside game-changer and Zeller is not that type of player.

5. Phoenix Suns select Alex Len
F
Len has strong potential, but his stress fracture injury is potentially much worse long-term than Noel's likely-to-recover-completely knee ligament issue. Given the haul New Orleans raked in for Noel, this looks to be an absolute disaster for the Suns.

6. Philadelphia 76ers (via New Orleans) select Nerlens Noel
Sixers: A-
This is a clear tanking move by the 76ers. My only worry is that there's no guarantee that any of the 3 players they "get" from this trade (Noel, their own lottery pick, and a protected pick from New Orleans) will be as good as Holiday. The range of outcomes from this trade is extremely wide, but it definitely opens the door for a swift and effective re-build.

Pelicans: A
Somebody got an All-Star in the top 10! And they said it couldn't be done. Taking advantage of a team desperate to bottom out under a new regime, the Pellies snapped up a 23 year-old All-Star point guard who plays both ways, doesn't need tons of shots to be effective, and appears to be a model citizen. As much fun as the "block party" would have been, I love this draft/trade for them. The pick they traded away is top-5 protected next year, so worst case scenario they end up at 6 and miss out on a great prospect. But you can't rebuild forever, and they decided that the Holiday/Davis core is good enough to build a contender around.

7. Sacramento Kings select Ben McLemore
B+
This was an easy grab for the newly acquired Kings. While he doesn't appear to have a leader's mentality, McLemore can shoot, defend, and finish at a very high level. The only reason this grade isn't higher is because I have serious doubts as to whether the team situation is a proper fit for a player who needs real nurturing to find his potential. It was definitely the right move for the Kings, but unless the culture gets turned around he could have a fairly forgettable career.

8. Detroit Pistons select Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
B-
This is where the depth of the draft starts to wane a bit. Here they nab a solid shooter and all-around wing talent, but his upside is fairly low. I was surprised that they didn't go with the local kid (see next pick).

9. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota) select Trey Burke
Utah: A-
Utah wanted to come out of the draft with a point guard to pair with their promising young core, and ended up with their top choice. The price was very reasonable (#14 and #21), so it's hard to argue against this move. The fly in the ointment is Burke's small size and propensity to take ludicrous outside shots.

Minnesota: B-
Instead of drafting Shabazz Mohammed at 9, Minnesota traded down and got him and Gorgui Dieng for the price of one. Mohammed is a good luxury gamble for them because they project as a playoff team. If he turns out to be good, they will be dangerous. If he's awful, their development as a team will continue despite him. As an older guy on a rookie deal who can step in right away and defend the paint off the bench, Dieng is a shrewd addition to the roster.

10. Portland Trailblazers select CJ McCollum
B+
While his skill set overlaps somewhat with rookie of the year Damien Lillard, McCollum has a very high talent level for the tenth overall pick and represents good value. Whether he comes off the bench (a glaring weakness for this team last year) or plays alongside Lillard, the Blazers now have a very dangerous backcourt offensively.

11. Philadelphia 76ers select Michael Carter-Williams
B+
Another good value pick, Carter-Williams will be handed the keys to a team with extremely low expectations in terms of win/loss record. He'll get a chance to have tons of reps in his first few years while being allowed to sink as he learns to swim.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder select Steven Adams
C
A "C" grade usually means "average" or "satisfactory." That describes this pick quite well. Adams has tantalizing potential, but right now is a very very young and unpolished player. Even if he does blossom into a productive player, it will probably be after Durant and Westbrook peak as a duo 4-5 years from now. Hard to see how this improves a team looking to win a title now.

13. Boston Celtics (via Dallas) select Kelly Olynyk
Boston: C
Another average selection, as Olynyk will likely always be a one-way player and it's unclear how effective he'll even be at that end of the court. Boston is bottoming out and starting over, but Olynyk is probably best suited as a role player on a good team. I would have swung for the fences instead of taking the safe route.

Dallas: B-
The Mavs drafted Lucas Nogueira and picked up 2 second rounders in this deal. I like Noguiera's potential, and they saved some cash and picked up cheap assets by trading down.