NBA Team Tiers 2013-2013: Tier IV

In a previous post, I outlined six NBA regular season Team Tiers ranging from title contenders to outright disasters. In this series, I will predict which teams fit into each tier for the 2013-2014 season, starting from the bottom up. As always, teams within this Tier are presented in no particular order.

Tier IV (30-40 wins): Not awful

Los Angeles Lakers

Pau, Kobe, and Nash. With those superstars healthy, the Lakers would be competitive most nights and would be a lock for the playoffs. Two big problems of course: the rest of the roster is a terrible mess, and it is unreasonable to expect a high level of fitness out of those core star players. Kobe suffered a ruptured Achilles, probably the most debilitating injury an athlete can have (excluding those involving the nervous system). He claims the rehab is going well, but I will believe it when I see it. Historically, basketball players with this injury have not ever returned to full strength, let alone in under a year. On top of that, Nash might be past the point of his career where he is an elite guy because of chronic back and leg problems. Pau is the healthiest of the bunch. He played 49 games last season. I predict a borderline disastrous season for the Lakers resulting in a trip to the lottery for the first time since 2005 (Andrew Bynum).

Boston Celtics

Danny Ainge sent a clear message to Celtic nation with the Garnett/Pierce trade: the past is great, the future isn't here yet. While rebuilding around Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, and head coach / savant Brad Stevens is a nice place to start, the talent level on this year's squad isn't nearly high enough to seriously compete for the playoffs. By putting them in Tier IV, I am assuming that Rondo plays (and plays well) for at least 50 games or so. He's good enough to drag a team out of the cellar by himself. If he doesn't come back to his old form, they will sink even lower.

Charlotte Bobcats

The Bobcats went out and signed Al Jefferson to a nice fat contract because they are tired of being a doormat. With solid, underrated young guards in Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson and some development from defensive ace Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, this team should be able to compete night in night out. Unless 4th overall pick Cody Zeller vastly outperforms expectations however, it's doubtful they can compete for a playoff spot in the East.

NBA Team Tiers 2013-2014: Tier V

In a previous post, I outlined six NBA regular season Team Tiers ranging from title contenders to outright disasters. In this series, I will predict which teams fit into each tier for the 2013-2014 season, starting from the bottom up. As always, teams within this Tier are presented in no particular order.

Tier V (20-29 wins): Lottery-bound

Sacramento Kings

The Kings recently had a change in ownership (finally!), and should be back on the road to respectability. But it's going to take some time. DeMarcus Cousins is so talented, they'll have a hard time losing as many games as the Tier VI teams, but it's hard to imagine this roster striking a good balance of offense and defense. Their guards are all essentially one-way players (Grievis Vasquez, Isaiah Thomas, Jimmer, Marcus Thornton), with the possible exception of Ben McLemore. But he's a rookie, so don't expect great shakes from him defensively. At the forward, they have the very limited players. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (8-clap!) is a terrific defender who can't score and Jason Thompsons is a decent rebounder and scorer around the bucket but can't generate his own offense or defend the paint. All told, I think they will perform reasonably well at home and beat some good teams now and then, but will struggle with consistency.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks surprisingly traded their best player, point guard Brandon Jennings, for Brandon Knight, best know for being dunked on. Knight will share the backcourt with free agent acquisition OJ Mayo and Luke Ridnour, an odd match to say the least. They don't have the personnel to defend guards and wings, and I'm guessing that might be a problem in a division with Derrick Rose, Paul George and Kyrie Irving. Luckily they have defensive ace Larry Sanders to clean up the blown coverages (and Zaza to back him up in case of foul trouble), but they've got no offensive pop in the front line. Unless Ilyasova somehow regains his 2011 form.

Utah Jazz

By letting Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson leave in free agency, the Jazz signaled pretty clearly that they are entering into a new phase for their franchise. But unlike the these other teams, they already have their young nucleus together. Their top 6 guys are Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, Gordon Heyward, Alec Burks, Trey Burke, and Brandon Rush. That's a very talented core that should at least be exciting to watch. However, those guys are all unproven youngsters so it's unlikely they win many games. Plus they have very little depth after taking on salary flotsam (Biedrinds and Richard Jefferson) to get above the salary floor. Expect the Jazz to go into half-time ahead or close on most nights, only go get blown open in the second half by more experienced, deeper teams.

NBA Team Tiers 2013-2014: Tier VI

In a previous post, I outlined six NBA regular season Team Tiers ranging from title contenders to outright disasters. In this series, I will predict which teams fit into each tier for the 2013-2014 season, starting from the bottom up.

Tier VI (fewer than 20 wins): Definitely tanking

Philadelphia 76ers

All the Sixers have done this offseason is watch Andrew Bynum walk (hobble?) away for nothing and trade their most promising young player Jrue Holiday for an injured draft pick. Clearly, this team is hitting the reset button and intends to have a bottom-three record this season. Trading Holiday for Nerlens Noel and a potential late lottery 2014 pick was the right move for the team's future considering the epic strength of the 2014 draft. Plus they've got a valuable veteran in Thad Young as a trade chip. Philly is playing the long game about as well as possible, but I do have a couple nagging problems. First, they really need Evan Turner to be at least an above average starter, something he's not shown he can do for long stretches. Second, they will be starting a rookie point guard who can't shoot in Michael Carter-Williams. I'm worried about these two co-existing and not detracting from each others' development.

Orlando Magic

After pulling a surprisingly good haul out of the Dwightmare fiasco, the Magic are ready to stink again in a very competitive Eastern conference. Similar to the Sixers, this appears to be part of a larger plan to build through young players and the draft. If they can move the contracts of serviceable veterans Jameer Nelson and Aron Afflalo for more young players, draft picks, and cap room, their rebuilding future looks quite bright. Oladipo, Vucevic, Tobias Harris and a top 5 pick in next year's draft is an exciting young core with plenty of room to grow.

Phoenix Suns

I'm not sure the Suns have their future mapped out as well as the teams above. In theory they have a young point guard and center combo to build around, but it's unclear if Bledsoe is good enough at either end in the half court or if Alex Len can play at the NBA level at all (the stress fracture in his foot is a gigantic red flag, mythical training staff be damned). Whereas any top 5 pick in the draft will serve the above teams quite well, the Suns really need a top 2 pick next year to turn things around. Though they'll certainly do their best, no amount of losing can guarantee a top 2 pick.

NBA Regular Season 2013/14 Preview: Defining Team Tiers

As we've seen with the draft, the process of defining tiers and binning prospects into them has become a valuable tool in setting expectations and making predictions. A similar approach can be taken to bin entire teams ahead of the season. While exact final win totals can easily be pushed a few games in one direction or another by common chance events (minor injuries, shaky refereeing, unlikely buzzer-beaters, missed foul shots etc.), the over quality of a team is relatively more predictable. Before we start binning teams ahead of the high-drama 2013/2014 NBA season, let's take a post to set up meaningful groups.

Tier I (54+ wins): Contenders

Overwhelmingly, teams that win the NBA Championship win at least 55 games. That's not to say every team that breaks 55 has a realistic shot in any given year, but the history doesn't lie.

Tier II (48-54 wins): Very good playoff teams

Some teams are, barring injury, practically assured to make the playoffs based on their talent level and past performance. As per usual, context is everything. For some franchises, like the Clippers or Bobcats, this is a great end to strive towards. For others, like the Lakers or Celtics, this is a brutal midpoint; the hardest stage in championship building is going from good to great.

Tier III (41-47 wins): Playoff bubble teams

These teams have a realistic shot at making the postseason, but would be heavily favored to lose in the first round. Often, this tier has a fair number more teams than playoff slots available, meaning that this type of analysis will not formally attempt to predict which teams will grab the 7 and 8 spots. Rather, it admits and accepts the fact that chance plays more of a role than team quality at this level.

Tier IV (30-40 wins): Not awful

Typically either propped up by a single excellent player or by talented young players who don't yet have their talents honed, some teams fight tough and win a bunch of home games but don't have true playoff aspirations.

Tier V (20-29 wins): Lottery-bound

Some teams are just not good.

Tier VI (fewer than 20 wins): Definitely tanking

This doesn't happen every year, as 2012/13 showed. The team with the worst record last season was the Magic with 20.

2013 NBA Draft Grades (Lottery)

"Judge the ball while it's in the air."

I love this coaching cliche because it jibes with my opinion that decision-makers should be judged on their ability to come to logical, evidence-based conclusions in the moment. On the court, this statement places shot selection above the result, be it swish or brick.

Applying this idea to roster management, I think the best time to hand out marks is when there's been just enough time to let the dust settle but before any serious outcomes can be measured. Nobody knows how these young men will develop or get injured or fizzle or bloom, so opinion and conjecture are actually appropriate.

With that in mind, here's my preseason draft grades for the top 13 picks in the draft:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers select Anthony Bennett:
B+
I can't very well hand out a poor grade after I pitched the idea of Bennett as a good idea for the #1 pick on this very blog, can I? I still like this pick because Bennett does multiple things well: shooting from mid-range, muscling his way into the paint, and rebounding. He's young and athletic and showed more basketball skill than nearly anyone else in this class. He doesn't look like a #1, but there simply wasn't one this year.

2. Orlando Magic select Victor Oladipo
B+
Oladipo has basketball nerds falling in love with him. Bill Simmons has repeatedly said that the worst case scenario for him is Tony Allen. That level of infatuation is borderline intoxication. Allen is a no-brainer first-team all defender, and there's really no evidence that Oladipo is world-class. Yet. I agree that he might get there and his offensive game has looked really good over the past year, so I'm excited to see how he turns out. This would have been an A if Noel weren't on the board.

3. Washington Wizards select Otto Porter
D+
This is where it gets ugly. Apparently, the Wiz had decided on Porter ahead of time and just ignored Nerlens Noel. The talent gap between Porter and Noel is huge, and the Wizards have no future bigmen in the pipeline. With Martel Webster already slotted in as a 3-and-D wing player, there was no positional need either. The only reason this isn't and F is because Porter will probably be a solid sixth man or starter for a playoff team next year and that's a clean score for a draft this top-light.

4. Charlotte Bobcats select Cody Zeller
D-
At least he isn't hurt. That's about the best praise I can lavish upon this shockingly poor selection. Zeller has very good skill and size for the PF position, but is a bad rebounder and projects as an average or below average defender at best. If Noel were off the board, I would have gone C+ here, but the Bobcats desperately need an inside game-changer and Zeller is not that type of player.

5. Phoenix Suns select Alex Len
F
Len has strong potential, but his stress fracture injury is potentially much worse long-term than Noel's likely-to-recover-completely knee ligament issue. Given the haul New Orleans raked in for Noel, this looks to be an absolute disaster for the Suns.

6. Philadelphia 76ers (via New Orleans) select Nerlens Noel
Sixers: A-
This is a clear tanking move by the 76ers. My only worry is that there's no guarantee that any of the 3 players they "get" from this trade (Noel, their own lottery pick, and a protected pick from New Orleans) will be as good as Holiday. The range of outcomes from this trade is extremely wide, but it definitely opens the door for a swift and effective re-build.

Pelicans: A
Somebody got an All-Star in the top 10! And they said it couldn't be done. Taking advantage of a team desperate to bottom out under a new regime, the Pellies snapped up a 23 year-old All-Star point guard who plays both ways, doesn't need tons of shots to be effective, and appears to be a model citizen. As much fun as the "block party" would have been, I love this draft/trade for them. The pick they traded away is top-5 protected next year, so worst case scenario they end up at 6 and miss out on a great prospect. But you can't rebuild forever, and they decided that the Holiday/Davis core is good enough to build a contender around.

7. Sacramento Kings select Ben McLemore
B+
This was an easy grab for the newly acquired Kings. While he doesn't appear to have a leader's mentality, McLemore can shoot, defend, and finish at a very high level. The only reason this grade isn't higher is because I have serious doubts as to whether the team situation is a proper fit for a player who needs real nurturing to find his potential. It was definitely the right move for the Kings, but unless the culture gets turned around he could have a fairly forgettable career.

8. Detroit Pistons select Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
B-
This is where the depth of the draft starts to wane a bit. Here they nab a solid shooter and all-around wing talent, but his upside is fairly low. I was surprised that they didn't go with the local kid (see next pick).

9. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota) select Trey Burke
Utah: A-
Utah wanted to come out of the draft with a point guard to pair with their promising young core, and ended up with their top choice. The price was very reasonable (#14 and #21), so it's hard to argue against this move. The fly in the ointment is Burke's small size and propensity to take ludicrous outside shots.

Minnesota: B-
Instead of drafting Shabazz Mohammed at 9, Minnesota traded down and got him and Gorgui Dieng for the price of one. Mohammed is a good luxury gamble for them because they project as a playoff team. If he turns out to be good, they will be dangerous. If he's awful, their development as a team will continue despite him. As an older guy on a rookie deal who can step in right away and defend the paint off the bench, Dieng is a shrewd addition to the roster.

10. Portland Trailblazers select CJ McCollum
B+
While his skill set overlaps somewhat with rookie of the year Damien Lillard, McCollum has a very high talent level for the tenth overall pick and represents good value. Whether he comes off the bench (a glaring weakness for this team last year) or plays alongside Lillard, the Blazers now have a very dangerous backcourt offensively.

11. Philadelphia 76ers select Michael Carter-Williams
B+
Another good value pick, Carter-Williams will be handed the keys to a team with extremely low expectations in terms of win/loss record. He'll get a chance to have tons of reps in his first few years while being allowed to sink as he learns to swim.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder select Steven Adams
C
A "C" grade usually means "average" or "satisfactory." That describes this pick quite well. Adams has tantalizing potential, but right now is a very very young and unpolished player. Even if he does blossom into a productive player, it will probably be after Durant and Westbrook peak as a duo 4-5 years from now. Hard to see how this improves a team looking to win a title now.

13. Boston Celtics (via Dallas) select Kelly Olynyk
Boston: C
Another average selection, as Olynyk will likely always be a one-way player and it's unclear how effective he'll even be at that end of the court. Boston is bottoming out and starting over, but Olynyk is probably best suited as a role player on a good team. I would have swung for the fences instead of taking the safe route.

Dallas: B-
The Mavs drafted Lucas Nogueira and picked up 2 second rounders in this deal. I like Noguiera's potential, and they saved some cash and picked up cheap assets by trading down.

NBA Draft 2013: Final Pre-draft Predictions

Here are some quick predictions on the morning of the 2013 NBA Draft:

• Noel should go #1. Let's not over think this, he's far and away the best prospect.
• Oladipo should go #2. His defensive ability and character are worth the risk offensively.
• I think we'll look back and be surprised by whoever ends up the best PG out of this class. I think Burke and MCW both lack a true NBA skill ("willingness to take insane 30 footers" and "size" are not skills) and will wash out.
• Ben MacLemore has tremendous Darko potential. I have serious doubts about him succeeding as a professional basketball player.
• Anthony Bennet has become under-rated because of his shoulder injury. He may slide to 6-8 in the draft and end up being the second or third best pro.
• There won't be as many significant trades as you think (there almost never are).
• The Thunder will seem overloaded with talent after landing a "slider" at 12 and a high-upside pick at 29, but neither will contribute significantly to their inevitable deep playoff runs in the next couple seasons.
• Cody Zeller's subpar defensive rebounding in college is a major problem. He will struggle to stay on the floor at the NBA level.  
• All the excuses for Alex Len's poor production don't add up. Add in the foot problem (ankle stress fracture is a repetative stress injury, not a freak accident injury like Noel) and I have serious doubts about him as a top 10 prospect.
• 3DA guys (3 point shooting, wing defense, athleticism) who might be in the rotation for playoff teams next season: Reggie Bullock and Tim Hardaway Jr..
• Boston will do something strange with the #16 pick. Tony Mitchell? Greek Freak? Ricardo Ledo? I think they'll swing for the fences on this one.
• Dieng has become underrated because of his age and poor offense. He's a rotation player right away for defense and rebounding.
• Jeff Withey will have a better pro career than Kelly Olynyk despite being drafted 10-20 spots lower.
• That Caldwell-Pope rebounded and scored efficiently on a terrible team with defenses geared to stop him - at age 20 -  is a great sign. I'd consider taking him as high as 6 overall (ahead of Len), projecting as a future starter.

The Pelicans, in Brief

The New Orleans Pelicans are an up-and-coming team featuring a fresh new name, a budding star* in Anthony Davis, an elite** two-way guard in Eric Gordon, and one of the brightest young minds in basketball with head coach Monty Williams. They also own the sixth overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft, which happens to have about 7 players worth of a top 5 pick.

With their two core guys able to play multiple positions in today's NBA, the Pelicans are in an ideal spot to draft the best player available. Here's a look at some players who fit really well:

Alex Len is a skilled center with good size and athleticism. While Anthony Davis can play center, if his rookie season was any indication, Monty Williams would prefer to have him at power forward next to a true man-in-the-middle center. Robin Lopez played well last year, but Len has a much much higher ceiling.

Anthony Bennett can really score, and offensively he could be a real mismatch as a small forward. He reminds me of a stronger version of Michael Beasley, without the crazy. That's a pretty enticing package.

Trey Burke could be a nice solution at point guard. He is a strong enough shooter to rotate ball-handling duties with Eric Gordon.

Ben McLemore has talents which overlap Eric Gordon pretty strongly. Neither quite has the size to guard small forwards or the pure point abilities to run the team, so there's a bit of a problem with fit. However, I think a trade could be worked out with the Phoenix Suns to swap Eric Gordon for the #5 pick and some contracts. This would have to take place later in the summer, as Gordon signed an offer sheet with the Suns and cannot be traded there for one full calendar year.





* IF HE CAN STAY HEALTHY
** IF HE CAN GET AND STAY HEALTHY

NBA Draft 2013: Top 5 Comps

Comparing prospects to past or present players is a fun way for analysts and fans of many sports to put potential draftees into context. The problem of course is that no two players are alike. If you need proof, look no further than the several sets of identical twins in the history of the NBA (most recently the Morris and Collins twins): none of them seem to have the same game as their genetic clone.

For this article, I'm going to take a look at five of the top prospects in this draft and find an NBA All-Star who, as a rookie or prospect, shares significant similarities in physique, skills, and weaknesses with the likely top 6. The goal is to contextualize the players' ceilings. Let's roll:

Nerlens Noel <=> Tyson Chandler

Physique: Skinny seven footers, long and athletic
Skills: Shot-blocking
Weakness: Offense
Wildcard: The jersey number 3

Chandler came into the league as a confused high schooler who wanted to be the next Kevin Garnett. That never happened, but he eventually turned into the defensive anchor for the NBA champion Mavs and was named to his first All-Star game in 2013. Noel has that potential defensively, and if he can learn to set good screens and crash the hoop for lobs and offensive rebounds, he could be an All-Star too some day.

Ben McLemore <=> Ray Allen

Physique: Prototypical 2-guards

Skills: Shooting, finishing in transition

Weakness: Defense

Wildcard: Ray Allen, movie star. Ben McLemore, famous rapper (wait, is it the same Macklemore??)

This comparison gets thrown around often because Allen is a near idealization of his position. Superstars are rarely among the great shooters, but Allen and Reggie Miller (also pictured above) stand out. If McLemore plays on a team that gets him open jumpers and he attacks the basket relentlessly, he has great potential.

Anthony Bennett <=> Larry Johnson 

Physique: Strong and quick but undersized power forwards

Skills: Inside/outside power game with shooting range

Weakness: Size

Wildcard: Both are UNLV Runnin' Reb's!

Technically Grandmama never made an All-Star game, but it's an outright travesty that he wasn't on the 92-93 team (Kevin Willis and the immortal Michael Adams were selected as injury replacements for the Eastern Conference, with LJ at home in Charlotte averaging a 22/10... oops!). He enjoyed a long and memorable career because of his incredible knack for scoring and his willingness to bully opponents into the paint. Bennett can do those things and if he, like LJ, can overcome his relatively short stature he's got a bright future.

Otto Porter <=> Danny Granger

Physique: Tall and long small forwards

Skills: Shooting

Weakness: Average athleticism

Wildcard: Hermione Granger's best friend is Harry Porter. Or is it Potter? 

Granger fell to Indiana in the late lottery before making the 2009 All-Star team. His success is due in large part to his ability to get his very effective mid-range shot off over shorter defenders. Porter did exactly the same thing at Georgetown.

Victor Olidapo <=> Dwyane Wade

Physique: Compact, high-flying 2-guards

Skills: Attacking the basket, off-the-charts intangibles

Weakness: Outside shooting

Wildcard: Both probably won "Most likely to have their name misspelled" in their HS yearbook

Wade was more under the radar at Marquette than Olidapo was at Indiana, but exhibited similarly explosive leaping ability and a presence of character that made Pat Riley believe he could be a star. Olidapo has that buzz around him after an out-of-nowhere amazing year at IU. 

NOTE: All images found via Google Image search and are copyright of their respective owners.

2013 NBA Mock Draft v1

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

Anthony Bennett | PF | 6'8" | 240lbs | 20 years | University of Las Vegas Nevada

This is an unconventional pick, but bear with me; there's some logic behind it. First, though it seems Cleveland would love to trade down or out of this draft, the market for presumptive #1 overall prospect Nerlens Noel is luke-warm at best. Next, the Cavs want to start winning some games next season, not just a lottery slot. Also consider that in the past two drafts they have made very unusual picks in the top 5; few teams would have taken either Tristan Thompson or Dion Waiters as high as fourth overall. I think GM Chris Grant will find it difficult to tease apart the top five prospects and end up picking the one who has the best combination of star-potential and fit. I think Bennett's ability to stretch the floor and his elite athleticism will pair very well with Thompson in the front court.

2. Orlando Magic

Nerlens Noel | C | 7'0" | 206lbs | 19 years | University of Kentucky

Any scenario in which Noel falls to Orlando is a windfall for them. They will try to talk themselves into Trey Burke as the point guard of their future, but would be relived to find an ultra-athletic shot-blocker at pick two. They are much happier waiting another year (at least) to be competitive, so Noel's injury and weight issues are less problematic for them. 

3. Washington Wizards

Otto Porter | SF | 6'9" | 198lbs | 19 years | Georgetown University

With the dynamite backcourt of Wall and Beal, Porter appears to be a terrific fit in Washington. He will likely be able to guard multiple positions on the floor, and will benefit from plenty of open jumpers with all the attention on the guards. 

4. Charlotte Bobcats

Ben McLemore | SG | 6'5" | 189 lbs | 20 years | Kansas University

The Bobcats need some pop in their offense, and McLemore has the shooting ability and physique to be a very effective offensive player.

5. Phoenix Suns

Victor Oladipo | SG | 6'4" | 213lbs | 21 years | Indiana University

The Suns would probably be thrilled to find Oladipo available. Their team needs a major culture change, and Oladipo's contagious competitive fire is exactly what the doctor ordered.

6. New Orleans Pelicans

Trey Burke | PG | 6'1" | 187lbs | 20 years | University of Michigan

Austin Rivers was a disaster last year, and even if he improves dramatically his ceiling is probably as a back-up. Burke can learn the game behind the greatly improved Greivus Vasquez and grow along with last year's #1 overall Anthony Davis.

7. Sacramento Kings

Alex Len | C | 7'1" | 225lbs | 19 years | University of Maryland

With new ownership and an as yet unfilled GM seat, it's hard to peg where the Kings will go with this pick. Len is a good fit because he has the size, skill, and lack of selfishness to play along side mercurial big man DeMarcus Cousins. He is a good value at this point in the draft.

8. Detroit Pistons

Michael Carter-Williams | PG | 6'6" | 184lbs | 21 years | Syracuse University

With nearly $19M tied up in essentially useless players (Villanueva, Stuckey, Kravtsov), the Pistons aren't going anywhere in 2013/14. However, they've got two terrific young bigs in Monroe and Drummond. I think they will be deciding between Carter-Williams and CJ McCollum here, and GMs love to pick the guy who's taller and played for a better college team. Also, he's more of a true point guard, as opposed to McCollum who plays a similar game to other combo guards on the Pistons.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

CJ McCollum | PG/SG | 6'3" | 197lbs | 21 years | Lehigh University

Despite the lack of strong competition at mid-major Lehigh - or possibly because of it - McCollum has some serious Damien Lillard buzz around him. He projects as a dynamic scoring lead guard, and given Ricky Rubio's extraordinary defensive abilities and passing, the two could pair well.

10. Portland Trailblazers

Steven Adams | C | 7'0" | 255lbs | 19 years | University of Pittsburgh

Adams impressed greatly at the combine, displaying his obvious size and athletic prowess as well as sound jumpshot mechanics. He can already do most of what JJ Hickson did so well last season next to Lamarcus Aldridge, but is cheaper and younger.

11. Philadelphia 76ers

Cody Zeller | C/F | 7'0" | 230lbs | 20 years | Indiana University

Bynum or no, the 76ers lack size. Zeller is a skilled and tough inside player who should be able to contribute right away.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

Shabazz Muhammad | G/F | 6'6" | 222lbs | 20 years | University of California Los Angeles

This pick is a luxury for the already dangerous Thunder. They have the culture and talent in place to help Shabazz overcome his immaturity and begin to realize his potential. They've already had some success drafting guards from my employer, UCLA (Go Bruins!).

13. Dallas Mavericks

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | SG | 6'6" | 204lbs | 20 years | University of Georgia

The Mavs have a very clean sheet after Dirk and Shawn Marion, and are rumored to be shopping this pick in an attempt to get enough under the cap to sign a marquee free agent like Dwight Howard or Chris Paul. Although he played for a bad team in college, Caldwell-Pope has ideal size, athleticism, and scoring ability for a shooting guard and represents good value in the late lottery.

14. Utah Jazz

Dario Saric | SF | 6'10" | 223lbs | 19 years | Croatia

The Jazz continue to be imbalanced and uncertain going forward. They really need a point guard, but are better off collecting assets and trying to trade for one rather than reaching on a non-lottery talent here. Saric can play some point forward because of his high level basketball IQ and court vision, so the Jazz can use him as a secondary ball-handler.

15. Milwaukee Bucks

Kelly Olynyk | PF | 7'0" | 234lbs | 22 years | Gonzaga University

The only sure thing in then Bucks' future is LARRY SANDERS! anchoring the defense. Everything Sanders does well, Olynyk doesn't, and vice versa. Olynyk lead the NCAAs in player efficiency (via 2012-13 Hollinger ratings) mainly due to his insane field goal percentage (63% from the floor!) and ability to earn and make free throws (made 4/5 per game on average). 

16. Boston Celtics

Mason Plumlee | C | 7'0" | 238lbs | 23 years | Duke University

By now, most sophisticated NBA fans know how rough it is for the Celtics when KG is on the bench; their lack of depth up front has really hurt them. Plumlee does many things well, and is a little older so he should be physically mature enough to handle the NBA game right away. Also, he spent 4 years learning from Coach K, so Doc can assume a pretty high level of maturity and professionalism. 

17 and 18. Atlanta Hawks

Jamaal Franklin | SG/SF | 6'5" | 191lbs | 21 years | San Diego State University
Rudy Gobert | 7'2" | 238lbs | 20 years | France

With a projected starters Jeff Teague and Lou Williams, Atlanta could use Franklin's defense, toughness, and rebounding at the third guard spot. He has the potential to become a starter if he can develop a three point shot. With their second pick, the Hawks can swing for the fences with Gobert, the player with the longest measured standing reach in NBA draft history. Whether or not he can actually play basketball is a story for another day.

19. Cleveland Cavaliers

Reggie Bullock | SF | 6'7" | 200lbs | 22 years | University of North Carolina

I've gone with another unconventional pick for the Cavs, but they are absolutely desperate for wing players. Bullock put up decent numbers against top competition in the ACC. He can shoot and rebound, and is big enough to guard NBA small forwards. Plus he's a Tarheel, just like one that got away (Danny Green).

20. Chicago Bulls

Jeff Withey | C | 7'0" | 222lbs | 23 years | Kansas University

Chicago needs shooters and improved frontcourt depth, and would prefer an older, more NBA-ready player. Withey was very efficient at Kansas, and while he doesn't wow with lottery-type potential, he could turn out to be a very solid fourth big for Chicago.

21. Utah Jazz

Dennis Schroeder | PG | 6'2" | 165lbs | 19 years | Germany

If they don't pick a PG with the 14th pick, it is likely they'll take one here. Schoroeder is a high risk/reward prospect, the kind of player worth gambling an "extra" first rounder on.

22. Brooklyn Nets

Tony Mitchell | SF | 6'8" | 220lbs | 21 years | University of North Texas

Gerald Wallace's steep decline really hurt the Nets this year, and was a major reason why they couldn't advance past a depleted Bulls team in round 1. Mitchell is a similar type of player, but has much younger legs.

23. Indiana Pacers

Shane Larkin | PG | 6'0" | 171lbs | 20 years | University of Miami 

The Pacers are currently having their most successful season since a run to the Finals against the Lakers over a decade ago. The one glaring weakness of this team is the weak bench, partly due to Danny Granger's injuries. Larkin projects as a terrific "microwave" guard, and could give them a Nate Robinson style punch in the second unit. I love this fit.

24. New York Knicks

Sergey Karasev | SG | 6'7" | 197lbs | 19 years | Russia

Karasev is a good fit for the "Carmelo plus four shooters" formula that lead to so much early-season success for the 2012-13 Knicks.

25. Los Angeles Clippers

Gorgui Dieng | C | 6'11" | 230lbs. | 23 years | University of Louisville

Dieng committed fewer than one foul per 10 minutes and hit about two thirds of his free throws while providing excellent interior defense for the NCAA champion Cardinals. If he can do all that for 18 minutes per night for the Clippers, this pick could really help round out their team.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves

Allen Crabbe | SG | 6'6" | 197lbs | 21 years | University of California Berkeley

Shooting. And some more shooting. The Wolves could use both, and Crabbe is lethal from distance. 

27. Denver Nuggets

Lucas Nogueira | C | 6'11" | 218lbs | 20 years | Brazil

The Nuggets are a deep team right now, and probably won't have space in their rotation for whomever they draft here. Nogueira is a great long-term asset for them.

28. San Antonio Spurs

Alex Abrines | SG | 6'5" | 195lbs | 20 years | Spain

Congrats to the champions of the Western Conference! You know the Spurs will pick someone off the radar here. The basics about Abrines (athletic slasher, good shooter) sound just like a young Manu...

29. Oklahoma City Thunder

Giannis Antetokounmpo | SF | 6'9" | 218lbs | 19 years | Greece

This pick has "Euro stash" written all over it, and Giannis is a likely suspect.

30. Phoenix Suns

Glenn Rice Jr. | SG | 6'6" | 211lbs | 22 years | NBDL

The Suns need talent all over the court, and Rice Jr. has plenty. He might have a chance to play some minutes next year for them.

Pre-Lottery Team Previews: Phoenix Suns

The final team with a >10% chance at winning the lottery (tomorrow, May 21st) is the Phoenix Suns.

2012-2013 Season Review

Record: 25-57

Scoring Margin: -6.48 (28th)

The Suns were a hot mess this past season. Based on points per 100 possessions  they were the second worst offense, "bested" by only the disastrous Wizards. At least DC was a top 10 defense, poor Phoenix was in the bottom third defensively as well. 

Team Strengths

Free agent point guard Goran Dragic was good (PER 17.5), but certainly not good enough to be a franchise player. He's a good scorer and distributor, but only shot 32% from distance.

Marcin Gortat is a decent rim protector and does a good job on the boards and scoring on putbacks. Louis Scola is a highly skilled big who struggles to guard his position. Jared Dudley is a terrific glue guy but fairly useless on a team this bad.

Looking ahead, they'll potentially have decent cap space in the summer of 2014.

Team Weaknesses

Direction. In this post-Nash era, nobody knows where they Suns are going. Certainly not their players and coaches. Establishing a winning culture and attitude is paramount here. Interim head coach Lindsay Hunter is a well respected veteran player, but his chops as a coach are as yet unknown. Can he turn this thing around? 

If they win the lottery...

If this section feels repetitive across teams, that's because it is. The Suns won't be good any time soon so Nerlens Noel is the type of long-term prospect they could start to build off.

If they don't win the lottery...

They will likely have a top 6 pick.

Ben McLemore will probably get a long look even at #1 for them. Michael Beasley failed terribly as a primary scoring option last season, and McLemore would be an instant upgrade.

Anthony Bennett could do a lot worse than learning the ins and outs of the power forward position from Louis Scola. If he can add a few tricks from the offensively crafty Argentinean to his athletic frame, he could be dangerous.

Victor Oladipo has the type of winning character, toughness, athleticism, and defensive willingness that coach Hunter is craving. He wouldn't provide the offensive punch they need right now, but Oladipo might be the best pick to help change the team culture.

Otto Porter has so much talent, if the guys above are off the board he's a no-brainer as an asset moving forward.

Alex Len is the seven-footer du jour and could be a nice long-term project.

Dark Horse Alert

If they decide that Dragic isn't the answer at PG, they might consider drafting Trey Burke and try to trade The Dragon. His contract is semi-palatable for an above-average starter (3 years $22.5M).

A New Big for the Bulls

The San Antonio Spurs plotted an amazing course to its 3 post-David Robinson championships. With late draft picks in Tony Parker (2001, 28th overall) and Manu Ginobili (1999, 57th overall), they landed Hall of Fame players to complement their franchise #1 overall Tim Duncan. They've also plucked out an amazing range of players in the late first or second round, including: Louis Scola, Leandro Barbosa, Benoh Udrih, George Hill, DeJuan Blair, Tiago Splitter, and others. That amazing knack for picking up assets has a lot to do with how they've been able to remain contenters for the entirety of Duncan's career.

The Chicago Bulls clearly want to follow this mold, and have had some success in the Thibodeau era. Recent picks Taj Gibson, Omer Asik, and Jimmy Butler have all turned out to be terrific pros. Two more in the pipeline, rookie Marquis Teague and Real Madrid's starting power forward Nikola Mirotic are young guys with great talent. 

This season the Bulls own the 20th overall pick and, due to the a managerial error of not matching Houston's offer for Asik, lack a young big man to develop. There are some interesting options for the Bulls to explore, as this is a draft deep in potential rotation players. One luxury of being a further along team like Chicago is that age isn't as big a factor. Some players might scare off lottery teams by being 22 or 23 years old, but the Bulls can afford to take lower-ceiling players who are ready now.

Probably won't be there:

There are three guys who will likely hear their name called early on draft night, but have enough uncertainty surrounding them to make a fall out of the top 20 a slim but real possibility.

Kelly Olynyk (22 years, 7'0", Gonzaga University) is a mobile, long-haired scoring big man with agility and range. Offensively, he was lights out for the Bulldogs, posting a massive PER (36.6). He isn't yet known as a rim protector, but has the athleticism and size to excel in that role. It would be a shock if he slipped too far into the teens, let alone #20.

Gorgui Dieng (?? years, 6'11", Louisville University) wowed the whole country with his strong defensive play in the NCAA tournament. He has amazing length and moves really well. His age is a question, (probably 23 years old) so his lack of skill on offense will scare away lottery teams. He might be a steal though in the mid-late teens.

Rudy Gobert (20 years, 7'1", France) is a long lean athlete who's range as a prospect is nearly as long as his arms. He might not be good enough to play professional basketball in the US, or he might develop into an All Star. A classic project, but someone will gamble on him.

More realistic:

These three players suffer from a Goldilocks problem: we've either seen too much of them, or too little. Each deserves to be a first round pick, and most scenarios have at least one of them available at 20 overall.

Mason Plumlee (23 years, 6'10", Duke University), younger brother of Indiana Pacer benchwarmer Miles, played four solid years for Coach K where he demonstrated good athleticism, a strong basketball IQ, and a reliable mid-range jumper. Not a terrifically exciting player on paper, but a very useful one.

Steven Adams (19 years, 7'0", University of Pittsburgh) has size and youth to spare. He plays hard and has a ton of potential. It is unclear if he will ever build up the skill to be more than an end of the bench guy.

Jeff Withey (23 years, 7'0", Kansas University) is another solid senior from a great program who isn't getting much hype. He figures to be a plus defender and is confident scoring near the basket, a nice combination for Coach Thibs and company to play with.

Dark Horse:

The dropoff is pretty significant after those first six young men. In all likelihood, if all six are off the board the Bulls will take the best player available rather than staunchly stick with picking a big. They may even be able to draft this player with their second round pick (#49 overall).

Lucas Nogueira (20 years, 6'11", Brazil) reminds many of his similarly coiffed countryman Anderson Varejao at this age. Bouncy, energetic, and long, Nogueira has been developing in Spain and could be a steal.

Pre-Lottery Team Previews: Cleveland Cavaliers

2012-13 Season Review

Record: 24-58

Scoring margin: -4.7 (26th overall)

It was a strange season for the Cavs. Injuries aplayed a big role, particularly an early season-ending medical scare for outstanding center Anderson Varejao (blood clot in the lung, nothing to be taken lightly) and some nagging issues with budding (budded?) superstar Kyrie Irving. Youth and lack of depth on the wings also submarined any chances at a playoff appearance, but generally the Cavs were a tough out. Head coach Byron Scott was ousted in favor of the man who had his job only three seasons ago, Mike Brown. This appears to signal a divorce from any plans to woo back LeBron, as his relationship with coach Brown is apparently strained (or worse).

Team Strengths

Kyrie Irving was spectacular offensively, albiet in only 59 games. It remains difficult to judge his playmaking ability due to the lack of talent around him, and his defense remains among the worst in the league. But there is no doubt that he is a franchise player. 

Last year's lottery pick at #4 overall, Dion Waiters had an up-and-down rookie year. He was pretty good at getting to the line and managed a decent overall scoring rate, but he was not efficient (41/31/74 shooting splits). Without a reliable outside shot, defenders can play off him and make it difficult to drive. 

Tristan Thompson, another #4 overall pick (2012) showed signs of at least being a rotation player. He proved to be durable, a good rebounder, and good at getting to the line. His FT% improved from 55% to 60%, which is still fairly terrible. If he can push that up into the 70s and continue getting better on defense, he's a pretty valuable player.

Team Weaknesses

It is unclear if Irving and Waiters are a good complement in the backcourt. Waiters may be better served as a career sixth man, but they need him to play big minutes on this team due to lack of wing depth. Varejao's future with the club is uncertain, and he would be difficult to trade because of his complicated health picture. 

If they win the lottery...

... the Cavs will likely take Nerlens Noel. This team is practicing patience and favors long-term growth over quick fixes, so Noel is a great project for them. They can then focus on him and Thompson and their front court of the future and try to build up Varejao's trade value while waiting for Noel to heal up. 

If they don't win the lottery...

... GM Chris Grant will be looking at a top 5 pick. Maybe the third year will be a charm for the fourth overall pick to Cleveland? This draft shakes out well for them, as most of the top prospects are not point guards, the one spot they have set in stone. For the most part, these young men project as complementary players rather than stars, which is not ideal but better for a team like the Cavs who are building up a new foundation.

Anthony Bennett just had shoulder surgery, but should be good to go to start the season. His inside scoring presence would be a welcome addition to this team.

Ben McLemore paired with Irving could be one of the top outside shooting backcourts outside of Golden State. He figures to be a much better complement to Irving than Waiters. His lack of star-level leadership, a negative for most lottery teams, is much less problematic on a team with a clear franchise player already in place.

Otto Porter is a jack-of-all-trades type wing player, and also projects as a complementary guy. The wing situation is so dire on this team, he could be of tremendous value just soaking up minutes and playing defense. Not a super sexy pick, but solid.

Alex Len has size and skill, providing an inside weapon for Irving. Similar to Noel, having Len would allow them to shop Varejao for wing depth or draft picks.

Dark horse alert: Dario Saric (F, Croatia) and Shabazz Mohammed (F, UCLA) are the best wing players after Porter. If Otto is off the board, the Cavs may reach a little for one of these long, athletic scorers. Saric is younger, so he may have the edge.

The Case for Expansion

So it looks like the Sacramento Kings are staying put for the near future, much to the continued chagrin of Seattle's strong hoops community. Some have suggested a team like the Pacers, Bucks, Wolves, or Bobcats should move up to the Pacific Northwest, but there's no reason to think those cities would want to lose their team any more than Sac-town.

The only other way to resurrect the Sonics is expansion. There are some important considerations to think through, but I think the case for NBA expansion is stronger than most people realize.

Money

It's got to start here. NBA owners are notoriously penurious as a group, so any expansion would have to end up a financial plus for them. The common argument against expansion is that it "splits the pie" one more time. This is absolutely true, but it also assumes that the size of the pie is a constant. If the new team is a success, the pie will be bigger, period. A new Sonics team would be hugely popular, and draw in new customers to increase the dreaded BRI ("basketball related income"). 

With a local population of over 600,000, Seattle has a whole bunch of eyeballs and torsos to fill with broadcasts and jerseys. The short-term gains of a relocation might be nice (basically each owner gets a huge relocation fee check from the moving team), but the long-term win of one more successful team far outweighs the short-term pie-slicing problem. 

Talent 

The league is in a great place right now in terms of talent depth. Some of the worst teams in 2013 - Orlando, Minnesota, Portland, Cleveland, New Orleans and Washington all come to mind - have bright futures, suffering so many losses this season due to injuries and/or deliberate rebuilding. The only truly awful teams are the Bobcats and Suns, who have simply been mismanaged.

The kicker is the 2014 draft, which may be one of the greatest of all time, according to Chad Ford (Insider subscription required). In addition to a ridiculously loaded incoming freshman, a number of top prospects decided to go back to college this year. There could be as many is 6 players in the 2014 draft who would go no lower than #2 overall in the 2013 draft.

Another likely influx of talent comes from across the Pacific. Yao Ming was drafted #1 overall in 2002. Soon after, basketball started gaining in popularity in China. Now, basketball is a legitimate national passion and their basketball academy is growing into a real thing. Kids who grew up in the age of Yao will start to turn 19 (a.k.a. NBA draft eligible) within the next few years, and if you think that a country of 1.3 billion people can't start producing one or two high quality basketball players per year, you are coo-coo-bananas. In case you are worried about height amongst individuals of Asian heritage, I can tell that there are at least as many, if not more 6'2" and above dudes in China than America. Trust me, I'm a geneticist.

Add that to the handful of European and African prospects every year, as well as a growing US population, and you should see a trend towards more and more high quality players entering the league each year. 

Balance

Having an odd number of teams is potentially awkward, particularly for playoff seeding. There are a couple ways to combat this problem. The first is to dispense with conference distinctions and simply have the top 16 teams make the playoffs. This has become an increasingly difficult idea to argue against, particularly with situations like this year when Utah won 5 more games than Milwaukee but the Bucks got a playoff spot and the Jazz did not.

There are scheduling issues to consider for the regular season, but nothing so terrible it can't be resolved with a quick computer script. Also remember that Chicago is 200 miles closer to Portland than Memphis is, but Memphis is in the Western Conference. Geography just isn't a serious problem in the modern game.

The other solution is to expand with two teams. Kansas City has a beautiful arena ready to go. San Diego is the 8th most populous US city at 1.3 million, but hasn't had a team since the 80s. Heck, Virginia Beach and Anaheim made pretty strong runs at the Kings this year. Vancouver looms large as a false-start that should have worked. Or maybe it's time to toss a team across the pond. The London Knights playing long home-stands at the O2 arena? I think a few blokes might show up. Basically, I highly doubt the league would have any trouble sparking a bidding war for a second new franchise.

Conclusions

The NBA should expand to Seattle and probably one other city as soon as possible. The owners will make more money in the long term and basketball fans in two more cities will have colors to wear and great players to cheer for. Plus, 32 is a really nice round number: 16 playoff teams, 16 lottery teams.

Pre-Lottery Team Previews: Orlando Magic

2012-13 Season Review

The year after. The 2011-12 campaign was a horrible slog, marred by the incessant waffling of Dwight Howard and constant friction between coaching, management, and players. It was so bad that the downgrade from a playoff team last year to dead last in the NBA this year comes as a relief to beleaguered Magic fans.

There is definitely reason for optimism now though, beyond the high lottery pick they've "earned" this draft. First off, the team appears to be in excellent hands with young new GM Rob Hennigan. His extremely strong C.V. (4 years each with the Spurs and Thunder) and first-hand basketball IQ (crushed it at D3 Emerson College and was an academic All-American) inspire confidence, and his first year on the job seems to validate his credentials.

As for the on-court product, the Magic as a team were fairly terrible. Though near the bottom of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency, they weren't historically bad or anything. But reading between the lines, 2013 has been an exciting year for player development in Orlando. They brought in a number of young guys who pretty much all played well and showed signs of being useful players. Their development will play a key role going forward.

Team Strengths

Nikola Vucevic had some monster games this year. Who holds the Magic record for most rebounds in a game? It's not Shaq, it's not Dwight, it's the 22 year-old Montenegran from USC with 29 (and 20 points that night). He's a rebounding machine with good touch around the rim and out to 18 feet. At 7'0", he can play either big man position and really solidifies this team's front court moving forward.

Three young guys - Mo Harkless, Andrew Nicholson, and Tobias Harris - all took off under expanded roles as the season progressed. It will be a major test of coach Jaque Vaughn's abilities to develop these guys. None look like future All-Stars, but definitely rotation guys.

Aaron Afflalo was hurt for much of the year, but is a solid defender when he wants to be and does enough on offense to justify a starting position. He really needs to get back to being a lock-down guy and stop trying to be a primary offensive weapon.

Team Weaknesses

Youth and lack of star power. Many of their rotation guys are too young to win consistently, as evidenced by strong individual and poor team success this campaign. Nobody on this team looks like an All-Star, but the supporting cast is really strong if they actually had anyone to support. They also lack a lead guard of the future, as Jameer Nelson appears to be at the end of his prime.

If they win the lottery...

... they probably won't over-think things too much. Pair Nerlens Noel with Vucevic and you might have a dynamite front line. Similar to the Bobcats, the Magic are taking the long view and wouldn't mind being terrible again next year. 

If they don't win the lottery...

... Orlando will most likely have a pick between 2-4. They are likely disappointed that Marcus Smart went back to school, as he would have been a high priority prospect for them. Of the guys remaining, a few possibilities stand out:

Anthony Bennett (PF, University of Nevada Las Vegas) could be a #1 scoring option for this team. Similar to Nicholson but better across the board, he is an agressive scorer from all over the court.

Victor Olidapo (SG, Indiana University) has the leadership and other intangibles everyone is looking for these days. He and Afflalo have similar games, but he'd be a strong upgrade.

Trey Burke (PG, University of Michigan) showed the whole country what elite leadership looks like during the NCAAs this year. Unfortunately, his lack of size and propensity for taking crazy tough shots are a bit of a turn-off. The Magic really do crave a lead guard though, and may pull the trigger with a top pick.

Dark Horse Alert: Alex Len (C, University of Maryland) is a skilled big guy who played on a bad team in college. He had ups and downs, but it's hard to know whether that came from him or his teammates. I don't love the fit with any of the top-5 guys, so I wouldn't be shocked to see a reach here.

Pre-Lottery Team Previews: Charlotte Bobcats

2012-13 Season Review

The Charlotte Bobcats were legendarily bad this year. Again. After starting a surprisingly competent 7-5, they swooned hard and will end up winning around 20 games for the whole season. According to ESPN's "Hollinger Team Statistics", they are going to finish dead last (or within the margin of error of dead last) in both offensive, defensive efficiency, and rebounding. 

Team Strengths

Kemba Walker's sophomore improvement got buried a bit by the team's overall terribleness. He is a tough lead guard who is active attacking the hoop. He doesn't draw enough fouls and he doesn't shoot well from outside, but he improved 5 points on his embarassing rookie year TS% (46.4 to a still barely acceptable  51.3). At 22, he should get better in these areas and is an above average defender by today's PG standards.

Michael Kidd Gilchrist, last year's #2 overall pick, still has great potential despite and up and down rookie year. His PER of 14 (slightly below average) is acceptable given that he is already an elite defensive player. 

Team Weaknesses

With no scoring presence inside nor anyone to protect the rim, the Bobcats constantly lose the battle for easy baskets. Also, they are a terrible 3-point shooting team. Also they give up more made threes than anyone else per game. In a typical Bobcats game, the opponent makes about 3 more threes than they do. It's an awful mess out there.

If they win the lottery...

...Charlotte would almost certainly select Nerlens Noel with the #1 overall pick should they land it. They don't mind if he has to sit out his rookie season while they stink it up for next year's loaded lottery.

If they don't win the lottery...

... they will still have a pick no worse than 4th overall. Assuming Noel is off the board, that means they'll have to narrow it down to three guys.

Ben McLemore would be a nice option for the Bobcats; he would instantly be the team's most dangerous perimeter shooting option. One gets the sense that Kemba isn't an unwilling passer, just that he's never had anyone to pass to (including at UConn). Offensively, these two could make a nice pair.

Anthony Bennett would be the team's best big man, especially offensively. A little two-man game with Walker and Bennett could be effective.

Victor Oladipo fits in with the culture the Bobcats are apparently trying to build: super hardworking, competitive, high character players with elite athleticism. He's not the shooter or scorer that McLemore is, but Oladipo and MKG defending on the wings would be terrifying for opponents. Without anyone to defend the paint, they'd still give up a ton of points, but they may be able to play a manic uptempo game keyed by excessive ball-pressure on defense.

2013 Draft Early Preview

Springtime is here, so as a hoops fan you know it's time for March Madness to rage on, and for NBA teams to jockey for position at both ends of the standings. There isn't much drama this year for playoff spots, so the 14 lottery teams already know who they are and looking towards the offseason. Cleveland and Toronto have already shut down or rested key players to "avoid injuries" and definitely not to "sort of tank, just a little." :-|

Every draft has its own flavor, and even if that flavor is "epic fail" (yuck) it's fun to go over. Here are some themes to give you a taste of what the 2013 NBA Draft has to offer:

Noel, Noel

What to do about the shot-blocker with the 9-foot standing reach and soul-shaking Kid-n-Play haircut? He wasn't exactly killing it at both ends with the Kentucky Wildcats this year, but hyped freshman Nerlens Noel clearly has length, mobility, and a knack for swatting weak stuff into the fifth row. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn ACL midseason and will likely be out of commission for the majority of his rookie season, assuming he declares for the draft at all. The team who picks him will need to be patient, but if he slips past the second pick overall he becomes an absolute no-brainer steal. For more information on how a good defensive big man can change the game, watch some tape involving the 2010-2011 Mavs and enjoy some vintage Tyson Chandler (HINT: they beat LeBron in 4/6 games, something presently unimaginable).

Wide, not deep

Spoiler alert for the inevitable "Lottery Tier" articles coming up later this year: tier 1 is empty. Like the 2011 draft (also known as, the "I swear, nobody knew how good Kyrie was before he played for the Cavs" draft), this isn't always a death-knell. Noel is the closest, and may end up being a first-team All-NBA defender real soon, but his injury is legitimately scary. Personally, I find this type of draft more exciting. As for those second-tier guys? There's plenty of them. Teams in the late lottery and beyond may be pleasantly surprised with their board this year.

Bracket Busts

So far, it has not been a particularly strong NCAA tournament for top draft prospects, and that is being very kind. Shabazz Muhammed (so bad UCLA fired their coach), Anthony Bennet (only 4-11 from the field in his final game), Marcus Smart (as many TOs as FGs in loss to Oregon), and Otto Porter (missed 12/17 shots against 15-seed Gulf Coast) got bounced before the Sweet 16 and Ben McLemore (0-9 against the Tarheels) has been mute. There are a few exceptions, but many more players have hurt their stock that helped with tourney play. Keep your eye on the Big 10 guys (two stars for Indiana and a pair of guards from the Great Lakes State), they may leapfrog some early exiters with a deep run.

Top Five right now (no particular order):

• Nerlens Noel, C, University of Kentucky
• 19 year-old Freshman
• Terrific defensive prospect, see above
• Anthony Bennet, PF, University of Nevada Las Vegas
• 20 year-old Freshman
• Bruising forward with good range who loves to get the ball and score
• Players with his physique (undersized, skilled and athletic power forwards) have an over-achieving tack record early in their careers (Millsap, pre-injury Elton Brand, etc.)
•  Victor Oladipo, wing, Indiana University
• 20 year-old Junior
• Prototypical athletic wing, though possibly a bit short (combine wingspan measurement will be key)
• Great defensive prospect, middling but improved offensive player
• Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas University
• 20 year-old Freshman
• Natural scorer and shooter, good athlete
• Not an assertive leader
• Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State University
• 19 year-old Freshman
• Tough lead guard with a knack for scoring, good defense
• With the wild success of Damien Lillard this year (in some ways a similar prospect though Smart isn't as good an athlete and is several years younger), someone will draft Smart very high