Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Pre-Lottery Team Previews: Orlando Magic

2012-13 Season Review

The year after. The 2011-12 campaign was a horrible slog, marred by the incessant waffling of Dwight Howard and constant friction between coaching, management, and players. It was so bad that the downgrade from a playoff team last year to dead last in the NBA this year comes as a relief to beleaguered Magic fans.

There is definitely reason for optimism now though, beyond the high lottery pick they've "earned" this draft. First off, the team appears to be in excellent hands with young new GM Rob Hennigan. His extremely strong C.V. (4 years each with the Spurs and Thunder) and first-hand basketball IQ (crushed it at D3 Emerson College and was an academic All-American) inspire confidence, and his first year on the job seems to validate his credentials.

As for the on-court product, the Magic as a team were fairly terrible. Though near the bottom of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency, they weren't historically bad or anything. But reading between the lines, 2013 has been an exciting year for player development in Orlando. They brought in a number of young guys who pretty much all played well and showed signs of being useful players. Their development will play a key role going forward.

Team Strengths

Nikola Vucevic had some monster games this year. Who holds the Magic record for most rebounds in a game? It's not Shaq, it's not Dwight, it's the 22 year-old Montenegran from USC with 29 (and 20 points that night). He's a rebounding machine with good touch around the rim and out to 18 feet. At 7'0", he can play either big man position and really solidifies this team's front court moving forward.

Three young guys - Mo Harkless, Andrew Nicholson, and Tobias Harris - all took off under expanded roles as the season progressed. It will be a major test of coach Jaque Vaughn's abilities to develop these guys. None look like future All-Stars, but definitely rotation guys.

Aaron Afflalo was hurt for much of the year, but is a solid defender when he wants to be and does enough on offense to justify a starting position. He really needs to get back to being a lock-down guy and stop trying to be a primary offensive weapon.

Team Weaknesses

Youth and lack of star power. Many of their rotation guys are too young to win consistently, as evidenced by strong individual and poor team success this campaign. Nobody on this team looks like an All-Star, but the supporting cast is really strong if they actually had anyone to support. They also lack a lead guard of the future, as Jameer Nelson appears to be at the end of his prime.

If they win the lottery...

... they probably won't over-think things too much. Pair Nerlens Noel with Vucevic and you might have a dynamite front line. Similar to the Bobcats, the Magic are taking the long view and wouldn't mind being terrible again next year. 

If they don't win the lottery...

... Orlando will most likely have a pick between 2-4. They are likely disappointed that Marcus Smart went back to school, as he would have been a high priority prospect for them. Of the guys remaining, a few possibilities stand out:

Anthony Bennett (PF, University of Nevada Las Vegas) could be a #1 scoring option for this team. Similar to Nicholson but better across the board, he is an agressive scorer from all over the court.

Victor Olidapo (SG, Indiana University) has the leadership and other intangibles everyone is looking for these days. He and Afflalo have similar games, but he'd be a strong upgrade.

Trey Burke (PG, University of Michigan) showed the whole country what elite leadership looks like during the NCAAs this year. Unfortunately, his lack of size and propensity for taking crazy tough shots are a bit of a turn-off. The Magic really do crave a lead guard though, and may pull the trigger with a top pick.

Dark Horse Alert: Alex Len (C, University of Maryland) is a skilled big guy who played on a bad team in college. He had ups and downs, but it's hard to know whether that came from him or his teammates. I don't love the fit with any of the top-5 guys, so I wouldn't be shocked to see a reach here.





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