As we've seen with the draft, the process of defining tiers and binning prospects into them has become a valuable tool in setting expectations and making predictions. A similar approach can be taken to bin entire teams ahead of the season. While exact final win totals can easily be pushed a few games in one direction or another by common chance events (minor injuries, shaky refereeing, unlikely buzzer-beaters, missed foul shots etc.), the over quality of a team is relatively more predictable. Before we start binning teams ahead of the high-drama 2013/2014 NBA season, let's take a post to set up meaningful groups.
Tier I (54+ wins): Contenders
Overwhelmingly, teams that win the NBA Championship win at least 55 games. That's not to say every team that breaks 55 has a realistic shot in any given year, but the history doesn't lie.
Tier II (48-54 wins): Very good playoff teams
Some teams are, barring injury, practically assured to make the playoffs based on their talent level and past performance. As per usual, context is everything. For some franchises, like the Clippers or Bobcats, this is a great end to strive towards. For others, like the Lakers or Celtics, this is a brutal midpoint; the hardest stage in championship building is going from good to great.
Tier III (41-47 wins): Playoff bubble teams
These teams have a realistic shot at making the postseason, but would be heavily favored to lose in the first round. Often, this tier has a fair number more teams than playoff slots available, meaning that this type of analysis will not formally attempt to predict which teams will grab the 7 and 8 spots. Rather, it admits and accepts the fact that chance plays more of a role than team quality at this level.
Tier IV (30-40 wins): Not awful
Typically either propped up by a single excellent player or by talented young players who don't yet have their talents honed, some teams fight tough and win a bunch of home games but don't have true playoff aspirations.
Tier V (20-29 wins): Lottery-bound
Some teams are just not good.
Tier VI (fewer than 20 wins): Definitely tanking
This doesn't happen every year, as 2012/13 showed. The team with the worst record last season was the Magic with 20.
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