Thursday, June 27, 2013

NBA Draft 2013: Final Pre-draft Predictions

Here are some quick predictions on the morning of the 2013 NBA Draft:
  • Noel should go #1. Let's not over think this, he's far and away the best prospect.
  • Oladipo should go #2. His defensive ability and character are worth the risk offensively.
  • I think we'll look back and be surprised by whoever ends up the best PG out of this class. I think Burke and MCW both lack a true NBA skill ("willingness to take insane 30 footers" and "size" are not skills) and will wash out.
  • Ben MacLemore has tremendous Darko potential. I have serious doubts about him succeeding as a professional basketball player.
  • Anthony Bennet has become under-rated because of his shoulder injury. He may slide to 6-8 in the draft and end up being the second or third best pro.
  • There won't be as many significant trades as you think (there almost never are).
  • The Thunder will seem overloaded with talent after landing a "slider" at 12 and a high-upside pick at 29, but neither will contribute significantly to their inevitable deep playoff runs in the next couple seasons.
  • Cody Zeller's subpar defensive rebounding in college is a major problem. He will struggle to stay on the floor at the NBA level.  
  • All the excuses for Alex Len's poor production don't add up. Add in the foot problem (ankle stress fracture is a repetative stress injury, not a freak accident injury like Noel) and I have serious doubts about him as a top 10 prospect.
  • 3DA guys (3 point shooting, wing defense, athleticism) who might be in the rotation for playoff teams next season: Reggie Bullock and Tim Hardaway Jr..
  • Boston will do something strange with the #16 pick. Tony Mitchell? Greek Freak? Ricardo Ledo? I think they'll swing for the fences on this one.
  • Dieng has become underrated because of his age and poor offense. He's a rotation player right away for defense and rebounding.
  • Jeff Withey will have a better pro career than Kelly Olynyk despite being drafted 10-20 spots lower.
  • That Caldwell-Pope rebounded and scored efficiently on a terrible team with defenses geared to stop him - at age 20 -  is a great sign. I'd consider taking him as high as 6 overall (ahead of Len), projecting as a future starter.

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