2011 NBA Draft Tiers

2011 NBA Draft Tiers

Tier systems have become increasingly popular in drafts of all kinds, from the NBA to fantasy football. The idea is that you sort players into bins, sort each bin based on team need/fit, then select the top player in the highest available tier. This protects teams from reaching for need positions and reduces the odds of picking someone who doesn't fit because of a slight difference in perceived talent. Of course, these tiers are all based on potential. No one pretends to know exactly who a player will become.

Tier 1: First/second team All-NBA players

• None

This draft has no tier one players. There are usually one or two, and each of the last three drafts has had exactly one (Rose, Blake, Wall). Next year may have as many as 3.

Tier 2: All-Stars

• Kyrie Irving
• Derrick Williams
• Enes Canter

This is being a bit generous to all three players, especially Canter. They all lack ideal size and athleticism, and only Williams has played in enough high-level games to properly scout. Despite these flaws, I think each is considered a potential future All-Star by most. The success (or lack thereof) of these guys will largely determine the retrospective reputation of the 2011 draft. Most people have Canter in the next tier, which is understandable given his lack of actual basketball experience over the last two years. I just think his combination of size, skill, and toughness is rare and that he will play with a chip on his shoulder because of the lack of perceived respect.

Tier 3: Solid Starters

• Brandon Knight
• Kawhi Leonard
• Kemba Walker
• Jan Vesely

Tier 1 aside, this is the real weakness of the draft. There are usually enough players in tier 3 to get through the lottery, but not in 2011. Knight has the highest ceiling but the least success against high level competition. The other three are more known quantities, but lack the upside of tier 2 players.

Tier 4a: High risk/reward

• Jonas Valanciunas
• Bismack Biyombo
• Marcus Morris
• Tristan Thompson
• Jimmer Fredette
• Jordan Hamilton
• Alec Burks
• Donatas Motiejunas

This tier is actually quite strong. Teams in the mid-late lottery will have a decent selection of higher risk players if they so choose. These players are all either internationals with limited experience or college players who had success that does not necessarily translate well to the pro game.

Tier 4b: Rotation players

• Chris Singleton
• Kenneth Faried
• Klay Thompson
• Marshon Brooks
• Marieff Morris
• Tyler Honeycutt
• Charles Jenkins
• Reggie Jackson

I've put this tier on a level with the previous group because it really depends on team needs. For some teams (like Utah at #12), a higher risk pick makes more sense, where for others (Milwuakee at #10) might want a safer choice. Again, this is a very strong tier. Each player in this group does at least one thing very well (defense, rebounding, shooting, etc.), but is not well-rounded enough to be a star.

There are 23 players in these tiers, not enough to get through the first round. There are a number of riskier prospects that will almost certainly get drafted (Josh Selby, Tobias Harris, Nikola Mirotic, Nikola Vucevic), but I don't believe they are on the level of the players listed above.