Anyone who knows me would probably think I've lost my mind, and maybe I have. I've been rooting for the Bulls nonstop for over twenty years at this point. They are far and away my favorite team in sports, and second place isn't particularly close. Each of their losses is tough, so why should I hope for a season filled with them? Just ask the Spurs.
In 1997, David Robinson went down with a foot injury and missed the majority of the season. San Antonio ended up winning the lottery and Tim Duncan, arguably the best #1 draft pick of all time. More recently, Peyton Manning's injury lead to the acquisition of Andrew Luck with a #1 overall. The jury is still out on that one, but there is some precedent for this year's Chicago Bulls team which will likely play the entire regular season without the 2010-11 MVP Derrick Rose.
Smartly, the current team was constructed to compete for a title from 2011-2013. Too bad that plan was ripped to shreds in an instant when Rose went down with a knee injury in the first game of the 2012 playoffs. Next year will be a lost year spent rehabbing and learning to trust the repairs. If history is any lesson, Rose won't be playing at his peak until the 2013-14 season. With OKC and LeBron hanging around, it will be nearly impossible for a hobbled Rose to carry the team to the Finals next season. If you ask me, it's time to rebuild around the young star and plan for the future.
Of course, there's no Tim Duncan type player in the 2013 draft and zero guarantee that going 0-82 would land the top pick. But Rose's remains extremely young - currently 23 - and will only be 25 when the 2013 season begins. The championship window for him as the centerpiece runs at least five or six more years, so it's silly to push the current group too far. Noah and Deng are the only two other players on the roster who stand out as keepers, and neither has the game to be the second offensive option on a championship team.
Luckily, the team is in a terrific position to take some gambles. They've got a late first round pick this year, the rights to a talented young foreign player, and a first rounder next year. There is no pressure on player management leaders Gar Forman and John Paxson to get production out of those players because the team is well constructed and losing next season is fine.
- Gamble #1: Use the #29 pick this year to select Quincy Miller, a talented wing player from Baylor University. Chad Ford at ESPN claims that "most GMs believe Miller would be a top-10 pick in the 2013 draft," but are staying away because of a torn ACL injury. Assuming the fear is that he will miss a year or two to rehab but make a full recovery, this is a great bargain.
- Gamble #2: In the summer of 2013 bring over high-scoring combo forward Nikola Mirotic, drafted last year. He has a contract with Real Madrid, but should be eligible for a buyout at that point. It might take another year, which would but a damper on things just a bit.
- Gamble #3: Lose enough to get a top 10 pick in the 2013 draft.
If any of those three assets turn into a star player, Chicago has a real chance to compete for a championship for a long time. They may be long shots, but in order to compete with Durant and company over the next half decade, they'll need luck to be on their side.
It isn't in Tom Thibodeau's make-up to pull his punches. In all likelihood, the 2012-13 squad will compete hard every night and again be among the top defenses in the NBA. The offense will be brutal unless some serious trades are made, but they'll still win enough games to get into the playoffs. But when they get knocked out in the first or second round because Rose couldn't get to the basket, don't say I didn't warn you.
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