Washington Wizards
As I've already posted on the Bobcats (here), and everyone paying attention knows who the Hornets will take at #1, let's skip to Los Zardos at #3.
Team Strengths
Starting PG John Wall is still a fantastic young talent, even if he did disappoint a bit in the first half of last year. It's hard to knock him for some stalled development in the face of the severe dysfunction plaguing the entire organization. His ability to defend and attack in the open court are both elite, and given his youth I really wouldn't count him out just yet.Starting big Nene, who came over from Denver via trade last year, is an above average NBA big man. He can score a little, he rebounds, and he can defend the pick and roll well and brings toughness to the floor. When he's engaged, he's a nice piece.
Young wing players Chris Singleton, Kevin Seraphin, and Jan Vesely are recent first round picks who have shown some flashes. Singleton can be a stopped on defense if used correctly, and Vesely has the type of athleticism you'd want to see in a teammate of Wall. Neither is really ready to contribute to a good team as more than a role player.
Big man Trevor Booker was a pleasant surprise last year. His rookie campaign far exceeded expectations and it feels like he can stick as a backup forward.
Rashard Lewis has a $24M expiring contract accounting for almost half of the team's payroll. Teams are less desperate to shed contracts these days, so it's likely they will hold onto him and just let it expire next July. At that point they will have an enormous amount of cap space and a stable of young players and draft picks.
Team Weaknesses
Culture: This seems to be the first problem to address. Things looked better in the second half of the season after Randy Whittman took over. He's coming back for next season, despite a lackluster coaching history. Can he improve his team through player development this offseason? Can he properly evaluate his talent and utilize it in situations to excel? Only time will tell.
Knuckleheads: Head case Andray Blatche is really the only guy left out of the worst of the Arenas-era teams, but he's making $7-8M per year for three more seasons. He's big and he can shoot the ball, but his basketball IQ is poor and his attitude is worse. The team basically told him to stay away last season despite being healthy, so they may have to just amnesthetize him and move on. I doubt any team would want his contract at this point.
Starting big: The ideal player to pair with Nene is a dominant paint defender. The next best thing would be a "stretch 4" who can shoot from the perimeter and create space.
Guards: Wall, the only NBA-caliber guard on the team, needs some help offensively. His playmaking isn't good enough to turn non-star players into 18ppg scorers like Nash or Paul, and his scoring isn't good enough to dominate like Rose or even Kyrie Irving. Adding a dead-eye shooter with some ability to slash and drive would make Washington's backcourt extremely dangerous.
2012 Draft
Ideal scenario:
With the #3 pick, the Wizards may an opportunity to fill a major hole by selecting Bradley Beal from the University of Florida. If he's on the board, Beal makes the most sense for Washington because he is a pure shooting guard with a great shooting stroke and fantastic intangibles. He's big for a guard, and showed rebounding instincts and leadership ability as a Gator. There's no question he'd start at shooting guard from day one and be a significant upgrade over Jordan Crawford et al.
Backup plan:
If Beal is off the board, that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be available. This would be a minor conundrum for them because his lack of shooting range would make it difficult to construct an efficient offense with him and Wall teamed up in the backcourt. On other end of the floor though? Yikes. Wall and MKG would be a premier perimeter defensive combo, potentially on par Rondo & Bradley or James & Wade. They probably shouldn't over-think this one; any time you have a chance to assemble a historically talented defensive backcourt, you should probably just do it.
Wild card:
According to my analysis of draft tiers, the team selecting third in this draft should not look beyond the two previously mentioned players. Management in DC might very well disagree with me though, I'm just a random blogger. The one other player on the board I could see them talking themselves into is Andre Drummond. He's really really big and long, and impressively athletic. A player at his ceiling would be the perfect complement to both Wall and Nene, able to defend the paint, block shots, finish at the rim, and maybe even score of post-ups or pick-and-rolls. If the Wizards believe strongly in their player development program, or that Drummond was somehow held back at UMass, they might take the gamble.
Also, they shouldn't trade down even one spot, because that would put them into the next tier. It might seem sensible to trade with Cleveland to get the #4 and #24 picks, but the drop-off in talent is pretty big. If they have their hearts set on Dummond - or if they feel Harrison Barnes is an equivalent talent to Beal - this trade would be the prudent move. Clearly this team could use some more bodies, so the #24 pick has value for them.
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