2012 NBA Draft Tiers

Intro

The "Tier" theory of drafting has really taken off in the last few years. Chad Ford at ESPN has a nice intro to this way of thinking when he broke down the 2011 draft. I feature twelve players in the top 5 tiers, just shy of the 14 lottery teams. 

Here is how I see the 2012 Draft shaping up:

Tier 1: Likely Superstars

The Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis, big from the University of Kentucky

Mock the young man at your own risk. New Orleans fans will enjoy rooting for their new #1 overall pick because he makes great use of his all-world physical tools by playing hard.

Tier 2: Likely All-Stars

The Empty Set

This might be an unpopular opinion, but I think this draft lacks any players in this group. More on that coming up...

Tier 3: Potential All-Stars

The Hot Wings

Both of these players are being hyped up right now as the next crop of study wings in the Association. I'm not so sure.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist wing from the University of Kentucky

MKG is a relentless competitor and a winner who will do several things really really well (defense, transition game, etc.), but doesn't appear to have the offensive skills to be a real star. Because of his youth and motor, he has the rare distinction of being both exciting and safe.

Bradley Beal, wing from the University of Florida

Beal has the build of a prototypical NBA shooting guard and was a dominant offensive force in high school. In his one year at Florida, he didn't shine through so much. If everything goes perfectly, he could have an impact similar to Ray Allen or Mitch Richmond. More realistically, he'll be a solid starter, but not a star. 

Tier 4: Likely Starters

The Meat

This group represents the biggest source of depth for almost any draft. This year is no different, as it brims with top-flight, but flawed, talents. These flaws run the gammat, from younger players who play impassively to older collegiates whose skills may not translate to the professional game.

Thomas Robinson, big from Kansas University

Undersized power forwards like Robinson tend to have great production quickly, but then peak early and tail off sharply. Think Elton Brand. That's great for a team ready to start winning within the next 2-3 years, but a team drafting him to be part of a long-term re-building process may be disappointed.

Andre Drummond, big from the University of Connecticut

Say it with me: "Seven footers with elite athleticism don't come along very often." This excuse has been used dozens of times to justify picking a young man who hasn't produced at a high level in college but sure looks good in a basketball uniform. Drummond is next in line. My big problem with picking him is that guys like take time to develop, and often end up spending their primes with other teams (Tyson Chandler and Jermaine O'Neal come to mind). Any type of player can bust, but even if he ends up having a good career it probably won't be with the team who drafts him this June. Or maybe he's the next Amar'e and will destroy the league as a rookie. Who the heck knows? That's why he'll be a top 6 pick for sure.

Harrison Barnes, wing from the University of North Carolina

The Black Falcon! Barnes has been on draftniks' radar for years, and showed flashes of impressive scoring talent as a Tarheel. However, his seemingly unprofessional and egotistical approach to his career - on top of his uneven play - has scouts worried. With his silky mid-range game and craftiness thought, someone will take him in the high lottery.

Royce White, combo forward from Iowa State University

White is an unusual prospect for many reasons, but his game is excellent. In the right situation, he would likely blossom into a unique and versatile weapon at either forward spot. Players at his size with his vision, passing, and playmaking ability can have a huge impact in the pro game. LeBron and Lamar Odom are really the only two who fill that role these days, and if he ends up anywhere in between those two guys, any team would love to have him. The shocking thing to me is that most mock drafts have him falling to the end of the first round because of off the court issues. Read this article to get an idea of what this young man has to deal with and decide for yourself.

Tier 5: Potential Starters and Likely Solid Role Players

The Intrigue

Teams picking in the mid to late lottery always have to balance team needs with raw potential. Each player in this tier is a consensus NBA-level talent, but most likely none will play in an All-Star game.

Damian Lillard, combo guard from Weber State University

Likely to be a high draft choice because of the dearth of lead guards in this draft, Lillard showed excellent scoring ability while dominating the mid-major Big Sky conference. But can he be a full time poing guard? Much of that will be determined by player development, coaching, and Damian's willingness to learn. Given the consistently glowing reports about his professionalism, and that he should be able to contribute as a scorer off the bench early in his career, he is a fairly safe pick after #10 or so.

Perry Jones III, combo forward from Baylor University

He seems to have everything you'd want in a basketball player: great leaping and quickness, shooting, ball-handling, shot blocking... but in two years with the Bears he never took over consistently. He doesn't seem to have the mentality of a star, but if he's your third or fourth best player? Not bad at all.

Dion Waiters, combo guard from Syracuse University

He plays a lot like Tyreke Evans, a recent rookie of the year. So that's good, right? Well, neither player has the shooting range or length to be a full time wing player or the court vision skills to play the point. Dion's ability to get to the rim and finish (or earn fouls) will keep him in the league, but he is probably best suited as a scoring combo guard off the bench. Not really what teams picking in the top 10 want to get.

Jared Sullinger, power forward from Ohio State University

People are all over the map on Sullinger. He clearly has a polished offensive game and has good rebounding instincts. But scouts doubt if he can score against NBA length. I agree it is unlikely he dominates the pro game as effectively as he did the college ranks, but I do think he can model his game after guys like Paul Milsap and David West and be an effective starter.

Jeremy Lamb, wing from the University of Connecticut

A very smooth player who should ably defend most NBA wings (read: everyone except LeBron) right out of the gate, Lamb will need to improve his offensive consistency to be an NBA starter. He's got all the tools and is only 20 years old, so he'd be a great pick in the mid or late lottery.