Instant Re-draft 2012

In the months leading up to the draft, teams, fans, and media members spend countless hours pouring over scouting reports, college tape, and pretty much anything else they can get their hands on to evaluate draft prospects. Unfortunately, the honest truth is that until you see a player on the court in a real NBA game, you don't know anything. No player's career is writ in the first weeks of their rookie season, but the instant focus that profession competition at the highest level brings is incredible. With that in mind, I'm going to re-draft the top five picks of the 2012 lottery now, about two weeks into the season.

1. Hornets - Anthony Davis (1). Turns out he's leading the league in PER right now. So yeah, he looks like a #1.

2. Bobcats - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2). Not very interesting so far, sorry. MKG has been disruptive on the defensive end and has shown some impressive slashing ability in spurts. The Bobcats have already won  nearly half as many games as they did all last season, so they probably wouldn't change a thing.

3. Wizards -Andre Drummond (9). Here we go! Drummond has played limited minutes on a terrible team, but he looks like a man out there. He would have been absolute ideal fit with John Wall going forward.

4. Cavaliers - Bradley Beal (3). He hasn't looked great so far, but he's very young and his long term prospects as a scorer and floor spacer match up well with Irving.

5. Kings - Damien Lillard (6): I was down on Lillard going into the draft, and I'm pleased to admit that I was dead wrong. He looks fantastic, and would have gone third or fourth in this exercise if the teams picking there didn't already have #1 overall picks at point guard. It looks like the Kings scouting department dropped the ball on this one.

At this point, no other rookies drafted in 2012 have jumped off the page. I'll do the rest of the lottery at the All Star break when I've got more to go on.

2012 NBA Draft in Review: Recent History Comparison

Plenty of other people (here and here) do a great job handing out report-card style grades for each NBA team after a draft. I'm going to take a different approach and draw comparisons between the haul brought in by this year's lottery teams to previous drafts to try and gain some historical perspective on how the night unfolded. I'm not comparing careers mind you, as we only have one side of the equation available. I'll keep things to the last ten years or so, because that's how long I've personally followed the draft with real interest.

New Orleans Hornets 

Anthony Davis (#1) and Austin Rivers (#10)


For this draft, we only need to go back one year when the Cavs brought in Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson. Though the expectations were tempered in comparison, both Irving and Anthony Davis were widely considered worthy of a top overall pick. Thompson and Rivers both have top ten talent, but have obvious limitations in their game which may prevent them from achieving beyond starter-level success in pro basketball.

Charlotte Bobcats

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (#2)

This reminds me of Michael Beasley being selected second after Derrick Rose in 2008. Miami had little specific interest in the monstrously productive Kansas State forward, and tried to trade down repeatedly to get OJ Mayo and one more asset. The 'Cats had similar problems finding trading partners to get multiple assets for this pick, and like Miami drafted the consensus #2 overall player without much enthusiasm.

Washington Wizards

Bradley Beal (#3)

Similar to the Nuggets grabbing Carmelo Anthony third overall in 2003, the Wizards got the player they really wanted to fall to them. If Beal had gone #2, DC would have been forced to choose from a limited group of players who don't fit their real need: outside shooting.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Dion Waiters (#4) and Jared Cunningham (#24).

As others have noted, this pick is reminiscent of the Thunder picking Russel Westbrook #4 overall in 2008 (they also had the #24 pick that year, and got Serge Ibaka). Neither player was a primary offensive option in college, often playing the role of sixth man (Waiters never started last year at Syracuse), but both produced highlights, scoring at will with agressive drives to the rim. I'm sure Cavs fans would be delighted if this pick turned out to be half as successful as OKC's. Cunningham doesn't appear to have the upside that Ibaka had, so this comparison wears down a bit.

Sacramento Kings

Thomas Robinson (#5)

In 2003, Dwyane Wade was just sitting there for the Miami Heat to take. Nobody knew he would be a Finals MVP in a few short years, but Pat Riley loved the guard from Marquette and was crossing his fingers that things would play out the way they did. Sacramento really needs a guy like Robinson and had him in their sights the whole time. When available at five, they snapped him up greedily.

Portland Trailblazers

Damien Lillard (#6) and Myers Leonard (#11)

It's actually quite rare for teams to have two lottery picks, but it's happened five times in the last two drafts. Last year, the Bobcats took an older lead guard who might not be a point and an athletic big who had very little production to look at. Sound familiar? The Kemba Walker / Bismack Biyombo draft is quite similar to this one for the Blazers.

Golden State Warriors 

Harrison Barnes (#7)

Rudy Gay was once a top tier prospect but fell in the draft because he didn't look like a top-five pick on the court at UConn. Memphis, sensing a good value as Gay slid behind seven other players, traded Shane Battier to Houston to get him. While no trade was involved, the Warriors were similarly surprised to find Barnes just sitting there.

The Toronto Raptors

Terrence Ross (#8)

As painful as this is, this pick harkens back to 2004 when these same Raptors took Rafael Araujo eighth overall. Nobody outside Toronto considered wither player a top ten pick, but the Raptors focused in on need over talent. Eerily, both years they passed on a dude named Andre (Iguodala and Drummond respectively) who went immediately afterwords...

Detroit Pistons

Andre Drummond (#9)

As I just said, this is almost an exact replication of the 2004 scenario. In this case the Pistons, befuddled that the sixth overall rated prospect in the draft was available at #9, picked first and will ask questions later.

Houston Rockets

Jeremy Lamb (#12), Royce White (#16), and Terrence Jones (#18)

Having three picks between 10-20 hasn't happened before that I can recall, so this is an odd situation. At least of of these players will probably be traded this offseason, so I'll flag this one as TBD. The 2004 Utah draft with #'s 14, 16, and 21 (Kris Humphires, Kirk Snyder, and Pavel Podkolzine) does not set a great precident.

Phoenix Suns

Kendall Marshall (#13)

With Chris Bosh on his way out in the 2010 offseason, the Raptors picked Ed Davis at thirteen. He couldn't score the way Bosh can, but he was predicted to have value as a rebounder. Similarly, Kendall Marshall is nowhere near Steve Nash as a shooter, but he does have great passing ability. In both cases, these teams knew they were going to have to try and patch a sinking ship with duct tape, and that it probably wouldn't do much to save them.

Final 2012 Mock Draft

NBA Draft 2012: Final Mock Draft

Like every year, news is coming in right down to the wire. A trade between Houston and Milwaukee may presage a big shift in the first round. New medical information about Perry Jones III's knee turned up this morning, and (spoiler alert!) it's not great. I avoided making a hundred changes in the 12-20 range despite this info, merely exchanging a few picks. Enjoy the draft everyone!

1. The New Orleans Hornets select Anthony Davis

Duh. Moving on...

2. The Charlotte Bobcats select Bradley Beal

I think this pick is more of an "asset collection" than anything else. Beal is the second most coveted player in this draft right now, and GM Rich Cho is smart enough to know that. They might not deal him right away, but value is value.

3. The Washington Wizards select Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

The idea that somehow the recent acquisition of Trevor Ariza would prevent Washinton from taking MKG is bizarre to me. Ariza is on the books for two more years, and isn't very good. Drafting MKG gives them six plus years of a better player with a better contract. You can argue up and down that they need a shooter more than a defender, but Kidd-Gilchrist is a significantly better prospect than Harrison Barnes, the top available shooter in this mock.

4. The Cleveland Cavaliers select Harrison Barnes

After battling back and forth over Beal, Barnes, and MKG, the Cavs end up with The Black Falcon landing in their laps. They've liked him since last year, this seems like an easy pick. 

5. The Sacramento Kings select Thomas Robinson

What an enviable position the Kings GM has this year. Five top prospects, fifth overall pick. All they have to do is take whoever remains. And in this mock, they find a great complement to Boogie Cousins, someone who will bang and compete and hopefully bring out the best in the capricious young center. 

6. The Portland Trailblazers select Damian Lillard

There will be temptation to go with Andre Drummond here, but I think the Blazers take a shot on a super athletic lead guard from the mid-major Weber State. Apparently he has been crushing the workout and combine scene, impressing with his leaping ability and smarts. Portland desperately wants to shake the images of last season's disaster of a backcourt, and D-Lil might be the answer. 

7. The Golden State Warriors select Andre Drummond

At some point, the risk outweighs the reward for the big fellah. In this scenario he'd be able to learn the ropes of the center position from Andrew Bogut, who has always played with superlative intellect but who's body has betrayed him.

8. The Toronto Raptors select Dion Waiters

And they breathe a sigh of relief. On paper, he plugs some key holes in Toronto's offense. With a potential rookie of the year candidate in Jonas Valanciunas and the greatly improved former #1 overall Andrea Bargnani up front (did you watch him last year? He drew fouls! He drove to the basket! He defended!), this team needs a dynamic offensive weapon on the wings who can get in the paint and create. 

9. The Detroit Pistons select Terrence Jones

I'm not sure why there is talk of moving Greg Monroe away from the center position. He happens to be a top five center in the league... It does make sense to put a rebounding, defense-first, shot-blocking athlete next to him. John Henson has about a 5% longer standing reach, but as a basketball player Terrence Jones has produced at both ends at a higher level. He took a backseat to Anthony Davis this year and played his role excellently on a championship team. 

10. The New Orleans Hornets select Austin Rivers

Assuming Eric Gordon comes back, he and Rivers could form an intriguing backcourt. While neither is a classic point guard, both can do damage with and without the ball.

11. The Portland Trailblazers select Meyers Leonard

After picking up a guard with the sixth pick, the Blazers go traditional and pick an strong, quick, and physical center. He's got the muscle to complement LaMarcus Aldridge, similar to Joel Przybilla before the injuries.

12. The Milwaukee Bucks The Houston Rockets select John Henson

The trade between the Bucks and Rockets makes little sense to me. The better pick AND the best player with the best contract, Jon Leuer, went to Houston. Do the Bucks think that highly of Sam Dalembert? I'm confused... I think if Henson is on the board here he gets picked, though this spot is likely to change hands again.

13. The Phoenix Suns select Terrence Ross

With the team in flux, specific needs won't come into play here. Ross, with a prototypical shooting guard build, should be able to the basket and finish in the NBA. He can shoot 3's and he can guard on the wings.

14. The Houston Rockets The Milwaukee Bucks select Tyler Zeller Jeremy Lamb

This pick was traded the day before the draft (see #12). I'll swap in Lamb for Zeller at 14/16 to keep things sane. The Bucks would have taken him at 12 I believe, so if they believe they got the better veteran player out of the deal they'll feel pretty smug.

15. The Philadelphia 76ers select Perry Jones III

Why not? No one doubts the physical tools or talent of Jones, but he never shined as brightly as expected at Baylor. By fighting off a pretty good Bulls squad (even without Rose that's a top-notch defense) and competing with the Celtics, the Sixers showed promise this season. They can afford to gamble here. New reports of knee trouble may scare them off. 

16. The Houston Rockets select Jeremy Lamb Tyler Zeller

Zeller can be a role player as a back-up center. Hey, you can't teach seven foot...

17. The Dallas Mavericks select Jared Sullinger

The fearsome red flag has been waved for poor Sully, who's stock was already plummeting due to perceived lack of NBA-caliber ups (and sideways's). Similar to the Spurs nabbing the ACL-less Dejuan Blair a few drafts back, the Mavs are in win now mode and can chance a balky back against the opportunity to get a real banger next to Dirk. He may not have a long career, but Marc Cuban might not care.

18. The Houston Rockets select Royce White

Again with the assumption that Houston will bundle their picks as part of a larger trade, I think the team picking here will likely have given up a high pick or a star player already. If true, this hypothetical team could target the marvelously talented power point from Iowa State. 

19. The Orlando Magic select Quincy Miller

ACL injuries are scary, and teams in the lottery will rightly avoid Muller due to his unfortunate genicular history. But at 19? With their team wracked by trade rumors and a disgruntled star? Why not give him a shot.

20. The Denver Nuggets select Kendall Marshall

With no obvious best player available, the Nuggets fill a glaring need at backup point guard with the pass-happy UNC product. Everyone likes to compare him to Andre Miller (who is a much better scorer but nevermind) who likely will leave as a free agent this summer.

21. The Boston Celtics select Draymond Green

Probably hoping White or Miller fall to them, the Celtics grab a highly productive collegiate player who can steal minutes at either wing position for Doc Rivers. He doesn't have quite as much star potential as they'd like, but Green is dynamic and has the personality to fit in with the though minded Garnett-era Celtics.

22. The Boston Celtics select Arnett Moultrie

It's a mortal lock that one of these two Boston picks will net them a big man to take the heat off of KG inside. Moultrie has the physique and young legs to fill that role nicely.

23. The Atlanta Hawks select Tony Wroten Jr.

This pick might come down to Wroten and Marquis Teague, and given that the later is the older brother of starting point guard Jeff Teague, it's probably wise to go with Wroten here. Despite an immaturity to his game, his statistics project well as a pro and brand new GM Danny Ferry will have to rely on advanced metrics to make this pick because he hasn't been on the job long enough to scout things out himself.

24. The Cleveland Cavaliers select Moe Harkless

The Cavs have a dramatic need for wing players. Even after selecting Harrison Barnes near the top of the first round, Harkless makes sense for them here. If he can defend either wing position and manage to not turn the ball over, he'll be a big asset for them

25. The Memphis Grizzlies select Marquis Teague

When best available meets best fit. The Grizz need a backup for Mike Conley Jr. after they traded Greivus Vasquez last season. Teague is a speedster who attacks the rim well. 

26.  The Indiana Pacers select Fab Melo

The Pacers are quite thin up front after Roy Hibbert. The Brazilian Melo certainly has size, and should be mobile and skilled enough to come off the bench for this up and coming team. 

27. The NBA Champion Miami Heat select Andrew Nicholson

The St. Bonnies forward is a do-it-all type big man. The Heat would rather not rely on Bosh and LeBron as their only real bigs, and some new blood could really help. 

28. The Western Conference Champion Oklahoma City Thunder select Evan Fournier

The first international player picked in this year's draft will likely be this 19-year-old guard. The Thunder need to keep payroll down and are plenty young, so an overseas player is a logical choice.

29. The Chicago Bulls select Tyshawn Taylor

With Derrick Rose out for about a season and backup CJ Watson a free agent, point guard is a surprising, sudden need for the Bulls. Taylor possesses explosive talent attacking the paint and has the trappings of an excellent defender which should please Coach Thibs.

30. The Golden State Warriors select Doron Lamb

The final of five University of Kentucky starters to be selected in the round, surely a first, Doron Lamb is a smooth scorer who can provide depth to the Warrior backcourt.

NBA Draft Pick #4: Cleveland Cavaliers

Team Strengths

How fast can you say Kyrie Irving? When I think of #1 overall picks who overachieved in their rookie season, Magic Johnson will always come to mind first (Finals MVP as a rookie? That's just sick). LeBron was also fantastic right out of the gate, far exceeding even the loftiest of expectations. From now on, people will simply have to add Irving to this discussion. 

After playing fewer than two dozen games as a collegiate due to injury, nobody thought he would be a franchise type guy. Everyone was wrong. Irving was tremendous in his first season, posting an All-Star caliber PER (21+) and absolutely killing it in several "bellwethers" of stardom: free throw shooting, 3pt shooting, and crunch time playmaking.

So point guard is covered. So is center, played alternately by Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson. Varejao is a well-rounded defensive anchor who can switch the pick and roll and lock down the paint. Thompson, last year's #4 overall, is a long lean leaper who rebounds at a good rate and essentially passes the eye test as an NBA big man. He is only 21 years old, so the development of his game over the next couple seasons will be key. Samardo Samuels, a third big, played surprisingly well last season and should be a solid contributor off the bench. 

Byron Scott is a very strong coach. He knows the league well, and has the respect of his players because he has won championships as a player and taken teams to the Finals as a  head coach. Chris Paul and Scott overachieved together with the Hornets, and a similar situation is brewing in Cleveland. While the X's and O's of basketball don't typically make the difference between winning and losing, team culture almost always does, and Scott seemed to build a solid foundation for this team moving forward in his first year with the team.

Team Weaknesses

The cupboard is pretty bare on the wings in Cleveland. The team's guards (after Irving) and small forwards include Boobie Gibson - best suited as a backup combo guard - and a smattering of role players. This is a gaping hole the team will have to fill through the draft and either trades or free agency.

The three aforementioned quality bigs all lack in the offense department. The only forward on the team who can score is Antawn Jamison, who could barely guard anyone during his prime. Now he is a straight up liability. 

2012 NBA Draft Plan

This team is building around Kyrie Irving. Much like the Thunder used the draft to add Westbrook and Harden to complement Durant, the Cavs will only have a few shots at surrounding Irving with the right talent and this pick is clearly one of them. There are basically four guys in play with this pick, so let's break each one down in terms of fit:

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

MKG brought toughness, heart, defense, and an attacking offensive mentality to each minute of every game he played as a freshman on an NCAA title team. That's a pretty damned good resume. Unfortunately, he has the shooting stroke of 2009 Rajon Rondo. Can it get better? Yes. Does he seem like the type of guy who will work his ass off to reach his potential? Yes. Is he a perfect fit with this team? Maybe. If I were GM Chris Grant, I would take Byron Scott's desire to build his team on defensive principals to heart and strongly consider adding Kidd-Gilchrist if he is on the board.

Bradley Beal

On paper, his type of talent is a better fit next to Irving. He should be a very good off the ball shooter and scorer, which makes sense playing with a scoring point guard. He has good size and strength, if not  the explosive athleticism of MKG, but given that he has a sterling reputation as a listener and student of the game, he would likely grow into a quality defender under coach Scott. 

Thomas Robinson

Screw conventional wisdom, I think Robinson would be an excellent pick for the Cavs. He is far more polished than Tristan Thompson, with superior footwork and touch around the basket. He's also got a great motor, busting his butt at both ends for buckets blocks and rebounds. His addition would allow the team to move Varejao to pick up a veteran wing, typically the easiest to fill position.

Harrison Barnes

A tantalizing talent, Barnes possesses a prototypical physique for a wing player. He stands taller and reaches longer than a shooting guard, and he moves quicker and shoots better than a small forward. But how good does he want to be? Playing second fiddle to Irving and receiving the tutelage of Byron Scott might be just what he needs to flourish and become an elite scorer and defender. Or it might bruise his ego and prevent him from anything better than putting up numbers. He might end up mediocre, a fate the Cavs can ill afford. 

The verdict? In all likelihood, two out of those four will be selected 2&3 and Barnes won't be one of them.  Frankly, I'd take Barnes off the board. He's just too risky, and they already rolled the dice with a #4 pick in Thompson last year. That leaves only one player between MKG, Beal, and Robinson on the board when they select, any of whom the Cavs should happily snap up.

Let's us be losers

Unpopular opinion alert: the 2012-13 Chicago Bulls should attempt to win as few games as possible.

Anyone who knows me would probably think I've lost my mind, and maybe I have. I've been rooting for the Bulls nonstop for over twenty years at this point. They are far and away my favorite team in sports, and second place isn't particularly close. Each of their losses is tough, so why should I hope for a season filled with them? Just ask the Spurs.

In 1997, David Robinson went down with a foot injury and missed the majority of the season. San Antonio ended up winning the lottery and Tim Duncan, arguably the best #1 draft pick of all time. More recently, Peyton Manning's injury lead to the acquisition of Andrew Luck with a #1 overall. The jury is still out on that one, but there is some precedent for this year's Chicago Bulls team which will likely play the entire regular season without the 2010-11 MVP Derrick Rose. 


Smartly, the current team was constructed to compete for a title from 2011-2013. Too bad that plan was ripped to shreds in an instant when Rose went down with a knee injury in the first game of the 2012 playoffs. Next year will be a lost year spent rehabbing and learning to trust the repairs. If history is any lesson, Rose won't be playing at his peak until the 2013-14 season. With OKC and LeBron hanging around, it will be nearly impossible for a hobbled Rose to carry the team to the Finals next season. If you ask me, it's time to rebuild around the young star and plan for the future. 


Of course, there's no Tim Duncan type player in the 2013 draft and zero guarantee that going 0-82 would land the top pick. But Rose's remains extremely young - currently 23 - and will only be 25 when the 2013 season begins. The championship window for him as the centerpiece runs at least five or six more years, so it's silly to push the current group too far. Noah and Deng are the only two other players on the roster who stand out as keepers, and neither has the game to be the second offensive option on a championship team. 


Luckily, the team is in a terrific position to take some gambles. They've got a late first round pick this year, the rights to a talented young foreign player, and a first rounder next year. There is no pressure on player management leaders Gar Forman and John Paxson to get production out of those players because the team is well constructed and losing next season is fine. 

• Gamble #1: Use the #29 pick this year to select Quincy Miller, a talented wing player from Baylor University. Chad Ford at ESPN claims that "most GMs believe Miller would be a top-10 pick in the 2013 draft," but are staying away because of a torn ACL injury. Assuming the fear is that he will miss a year or two to rehab but make a full recovery, this is a great bargain.
• Gamble #2: In the summer of 2013 bring over high-scoring combo forward Nikola Mirotic, drafted last year. He has a contract with Real Madrid, but should be eligible for a buyout at that point. It might take another year, which would but a damper on things just a bit.
• Gamble #3: Lose enough to get a top 10 pick in the 2013 draft.

If any of those three assets turn into a star player, Chicago has a real chance to compete for a championship for a long time. They may be long shots, but in order to compete with Durant and company over the next half decade, they'll need luck to be on their side. 

It isn't in Tom Thibodeau's make-up to pull his punches. In all likelihood, the 2012-13 squad will compete hard every night and again be among the top defenses in the NBA. The offense will be brutal unless some serious trades are made, but they'll still win enough games to get into the playoffs. But when they get knocked out in the first or second round because Rose couldn't get to the basket, don't say I didn't warn you.

Go small or go home

2012 NBA Finals (and beyond) Preview

Get ready folks, here comes the 6'10" and under NBA Finals. Scour the rosters of both the Miami Heat and the OKC Thunder, and you can count on no hands how many seven footers will take the court in the 2012 NBA Finals. Besides jumping it up for the first possession of the game, the center position will be almost completely unrepresented in this championship series. 

Miami's bigs all fall into the power forward category. Chris Bosh, a terrific outside shooter and improved rebounder, lacks the muscle and footwork to dominate the paint on either end. Ditto for Udonis Haslem. Joel Anthony, a starter on last year's conference champ squad, plays center as best he can with limited size but has been marginalized on this year's edition of the Heat.

The Thunder try to play a more traditional style with Kendrick Perkins at the pivot, but by nearly any estimate (statistical or otherwise) clearly shows a dramatic drop in production this season. Much of the team's success has come with him on the bench, particularly against the mighty 20-straight-wins Spurs. Coach Scotty Brooks instead turned to Serge Ibaka to patrol the paint, and all he did was lead the league in blocked shots.

Using defensive minded, undersized bigs as centers is nothing new in the NBA. Phil Jackson sometimes used Dennis Rodman as the center, and he stood at 6'6" or so. Heck, the Greatest Center of All Time Bill Russell was only around 6'10". How about Ben Wallace? In this light, it isn't so crazy that Ibaka and Bosh will be the big man on court for their respective teams. 

The vast majority of teams employ two bigs, two wings, and one point guard (2+2+1). This is coaching cannon. The positions of center and power forward have long been more or less interchangeable, as have small forward and shooting guard. These distinctions don't really matter and depend more on individual match-ups than any ideology, but again and again you'll see teams built around the 2+2+1 motif. 

Both teams of these teams peak with a 1+3+1 alignment incorporating a third wing player. During the regular season, it makes little sense to employ superstars LeBron James and Kevin Durant inside defensively. They would simply take too much punishment from opposing bigs. In the playoffs however, each coach came to undertand the 1+3+1 lineup gave their team the best chance to win. In the case of Eric Spoelstra, the loss of Chris Bosh for several key games forced his hand. For Brooks, Perkins was so ineffective against the Spurs he had to shake things up. 

So given that the two Finalists in 2012 play the same lineup format, is this the only way to win in today's NBA? Unequivocally, the answer is "NO!" Little doubt remains that the 1+3+1 is optimal for these two specific teams with their specific rosters. But oh, by the way, they also happen to be the two most talented teams in the league. Let's play a thought experiment: imagine that you swap Dwyane Wade for Andrew Bynum and James Harden for Dwight Howard. What would be the chance that they would still be playing for the championship this year? Right, about 99.99999%

Guess what the story line will be this offseason, particularly surrounding the draft and free agency? "You don't need a center to win in the modern NBA!" This happens all the time. You remember Detroit making consecutive Finals appearances, and winning one. And you remember how all sorts of teams started building their teams around the "no superstar needed" ideology. Too bad that didn't work out for any other teams. 

So enjoy the smallball finals, it's bound to be incredibly exciting. The talent level is so freaking high there's no way it won't be. But don't hop on the bandwagon just yet, I suspect Hakeem and Jabar would do just fine in today's NBA.

NBA Draft 2012: Pick #3 - Washington Wizards

Washington Wizards

As I've already posted on the Bobcats (here), and everyone paying attention knows who the Hornets will take at #1, let's skip to Los Zardos at #3.

Team Strengths

Starting PG John Wall is still a fantastic young talent, even if he did disappoint a bit in the first half of last year. It's hard to knock him for some stalled development in the face of the severe dysfunction plaguing the entire organization. His ability to defend and attack in the open court are both elite, and given his youth I really wouldn't count him out just yet.

Starting big Nene, who came over from Denver via trade last year, is an above average NBA big man. He can score a little, he rebounds, and he can defend the pick and roll well and brings toughness to the floor. When he's engaged, he's a nice piece.

Young wing players Chris Singleton, Kevin Seraphin, and Jan Vesely are recent first round picks who have shown some flashes. Singleton can be a stopped on defense if used correctly, and Vesely has the type of athleticism you'd want to see in a teammate of Wall. Neither is really ready to contribute to a good team as more than a role player.

Big man Trevor Booker was a pleasant surprise last year. His rookie campaign far exceeded expectations and it feels like he can stick as a backup forward.

Rashard Lewis has a $24M expiring contract accounting for almost half of the team's payroll. Teams are less desperate to shed contracts these days, so it's likely they will hold onto him and just let it expire next July. At that point they will have an enormous amount of cap space and a stable of young players and draft picks. 

Team Weaknesses

Culture: This seems to be the first problem to address. Things looked better in the second half of the season after Randy Whittman took over. He's coming back for next season, despite a lackluster coaching history. Can he improve his team through player development this offseason? Can he properly evaluate his talent and utilize it in situations to excel? Only time will tell.

Knuckleheads: Head case Andray Blatche is really the only guy left out of the worst of the Arenas-era teams, but he's making $7-8M per year for three more seasons. He's big and he can shoot the ball, but his basketball IQ is poor and his attitude is worse. The team basically told him to stay away last season despite being healthy, so they may have to just amnesthetize him and move on. I doubt any team would want his contract at this point.

Starting big: The ideal player to pair with Nene is a dominant paint defender. The next best thing would be a "stretch 4" who can shoot from the perimeter and create space.

Guards: Wall, the only NBA-caliber guard on the team, needs some help offensively. His playmaking isn't good enough to turn non-star players into 18ppg scorers like Nash or Paul, and his scoring isn't good enough to dominate like Rose or even Kyrie Irving. Adding a dead-eye shooter with some ability to slash and drive would make Washington's backcourt extremely dangerous.

2012 Draft

Ideal scenario:

With the #3 pick, the Wizards may an opportunity to fill a major hole by selecting Bradley Beal from the University of Florida. If he's on the board, Beal makes the most sense for Washington because he is a pure shooting guard with a great shooting stroke and fantastic intangibles. He's big for a guard, and showed rebounding instincts and leadership ability as a Gator. There's no question he'd start at shooting guard from day one and be a significant upgrade over Jordan Crawford et al.

Backup plan:

If Beal is off the board, that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be available. This would be a minor conundrum for them because his lack of shooting range would make it difficult to construct an efficient offense with him and Wall teamed up in the backcourt. On other end of the floor though? Yikes. Wall and MKG would be a premier perimeter defensive combo, potentially on par Rondo & Bradley or James & Wade. They probably shouldn't over-think this one; any time you have a chance to assemble a historically talented defensive backcourt, you should probably just do it.

Wild card:

According to my analysis of draft tiers, the team selecting third in this draft should not look beyond the two previously mentioned players. Management in DC might very well disagree with me though, I'm just a random blogger. The one other player on the board I could see them talking themselves into is Andre Drummond. He's really really big and long, and impressively athletic. A player at his ceiling would be the perfect complement to both Wall and Nene, able to defend the paint, block shots, finish at the rim, and maybe even score of post-ups or pick-and-rolls. If the Wizards believe strongly in their player development program, or that Drummond was somehow held back at UMass, they might take the gamble. 

Also, they shouldn't trade down even one spot, because that would put them into the next tier. It might seem sensible to trade with Cleveland to get the #4 and #24 picks, but the drop-off in talent is pretty big. If they have their hearts set on Dummond - or if they feel Harrison Barnes is an equivalent talent to Beal - this trade would be the prudent move. Clearly this team could use some more bodies, so the #24 pick has value for them.

2012 NBA Draft Tiers

Intro

The "Tier" theory of drafting has really taken off in the last few years. Chad Ford at ESPN has a nice intro to this way of thinking when he broke down the 2011 draft. I feature twelve players in the top 5 tiers, just shy of the 14 lottery teams. 

Here is how I see the 2012 Draft shaping up:

Tier 1: Likely Superstars

The Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis, big from the University of Kentucky

Mock the young man at your own risk. New Orleans fans will enjoy rooting for their new #1 overall pick because he makes great use of his all-world physical tools by playing hard.

Tier 2: Likely All-Stars

The Empty Set

This might be an unpopular opinion, but I think this draft lacks any players in this group. More on that coming up...

Tier 3: Potential All-Stars

The Hot Wings

Both of these players are being hyped up right now as the next crop of study wings in the Association. I'm not so sure.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist wing from the University of Kentucky

MKG is a relentless competitor and a winner who will do several things really really well (defense, transition game, etc.), but doesn't appear to have the offensive skills to be a real star. Because of his youth and motor, he has the rare distinction of being both exciting and safe.

Bradley Beal, wing from the University of Florida

Beal has the build of a prototypical NBA shooting guard and was a dominant offensive force in high school. In his one year at Florida, he didn't shine through so much. If everything goes perfectly, he could have an impact similar to Ray Allen or Mitch Richmond. More realistically, he'll be a solid starter, but not a star. 

Tier 4: Likely Starters

The Meat

This group represents the biggest source of depth for almost any draft. This year is no different, as it brims with top-flight, but flawed, talents. These flaws run the gammat, from younger players who play impassively to older collegiates whose skills may not translate to the professional game.

Thomas Robinson, big from Kansas University

Undersized power forwards like Robinson tend to have great production quickly, but then peak early and tail off sharply. Think Elton Brand. That's great for a team ready to start winning within the next 2-3 years, but a team drafting him to be part of a long-term re-building process may be disappointed.

Andre Drummond, big from the University of Connecticut

Say it with me: "Seven footers with elite athleticism don't come along very often." This excuse has been used dozens of times to justify picking a young man who hasn't produced at a high level in college but sure looks good in a basketball uniform. Drummond is next in line. My big problem with picking him is that guys like take time to develop, and often end up spending their primes with other teams (Tyson Chandler and Jermaine O'Neal come to mind). Any type of player can bust, but even if he ends up having a good career it probably won't be with the team who drafts him this June. Or maybe he's the next Amar'e and will destroy the league as a rookie. Who the heck knows? That's why he'll be a top 6 pick for sure.

Harrison Barnes, wing from the University of North Carolina

The Black Falcon! Barnes has been on draftniks' radar for years, and showed flashes of impressive scoring talent as a Tarheel. However, his seemingly unprofessional and egotistical approach to his career - on top of his uneven play - has scouts worried. With his silky mid-range game and craftiness thought, someone will take him in the high lottery.

Royce White, combo forward from Iowa State University

White is an unusual prospect for many reasons, but his game is excellent. In the right situation, he would likely blossom into a unique and versatile weapon at either forward spot. Players at his size with his vision, passing, and playmaking ability can have a huge impact in the pro game. LeBron and Lamar Odom are really the only two who fill that role these days, and if he ends up anywhere in between those two guys, any team would love to have him. The shocking thing to me is that most mock drafts have him falling to the end of the first round because of off the court issues. Read this article to get an idea of what this young man has to deal with and decide for yourself.

Tier 5: Potential Starters and Likely Solid Role Players

The Intrigue

Teams picking in the mid to late lottery always have to balance team needs with raw potential. Each player in this tier is a consensus NBA-level talent, but most likely none will play in an All-Star game.

Damian Lillard, combo guard from Weber State University

Likely to be a high draft choice because of the dearth of lead guards in this draft, Lillard showed excellent scoring ability while dominating the mid-major Big Sky conference. But can he be a full time poing guard? Much of that will be determined by player development, coaching, and Damian's willingness to learn. Given the consistently glowing reports about his professionalism, and that he should be able to contribute as a scorer off the bench early in his career, he is a fairly safe pick after #10 or so.

Perry Jones III, combo forward from Baylor University

He seems to have everything you'd want in a basketball player: great leaping and quickness, shooting, ball-handling, shot blocking... but in two years with the Bears he never took over consistently. He doesn't seem to have the mentality of a star, but if he's your third or fourth best player? Not bad at all.

Dion Waiters, combo guard from Syracuse University

He plays a lot like Tyreke Evans, a recent rookie of the year. So that's good, right? Well, neither player has the shooting range or length to be a full time wing player or the court vision skills to play the point. Dion's ability to get to the rim and finish (or earn fouls) will keep him in the league, but he is probably best suited as a scoring combo guard off the bench. Not really what teams picking in the top 10 want to get.

Jared Sullinger, power forward from Ohio State University

People are all over the map on Sullinger. He clearly has a polished offensive game and has good rebounding instincts. But scouts doubt if he can score against NBA length. I agree it is unlikely he dominates the pro game as effectively as he did the college ranks, but I do think he can model his game after guys like Paul Milsap and David West and be an effective starter.

Jeremy Lamb, wing from the University of Connecticut

A very smooth player who should ably defend most NBA wings (read: everyone except LeBron) right out of the gate, Lamb will need to improve his offensive consistency to be an NBA starter. He's got all the tools and is only 20 years old, so he'd be a great pick in the mid or late lottery.

2012 Bobcats Offseason

What do you do with the worst team of all time?

Rich Cho has a tall task ahead of him this offseason. The Charlotte Bobcats just finished with the worst winning percentage in the relevant history of professional basketball, but no team is cooked forever. It only takes six good players to make the playoffs, and eight to win a championship. In theory, a couple years of good planning can get even this sorry team into contention.

How? Trades, the draft, and free agency are the only ways to pick up new talent, so I'll break down each phase chronologically with a "best-case" scenario option for each. I'll try not to reach so much, as I'm not a Bobcats fan.

Let's see what we can do, shall we?

Trade Kemba

After his rookie season, it seems clear that Kemba's best role in the league is as a spark-plug combo guard providing energy and scoring off the bench. His talents simply aren't suited for full-time lead guard duty. There are teams out there who need a player like him, but the 'Cats simply aren't one of them. They should try to turn Kemba into a young wing player or mid-first draft pick.

Best Scenario:

Kemba Walker to Portland for Luke Babbitt and the #11 pick in the 2012 draft. This is definitely a bit of a stretch for the Blazers. Kemba went #9 last year, and some people thought that was high. But Portland desperately needs some new blood at the lead guard spot after last year's disasters, and with such a weak crop of point guards in this draft, why not? Babbitt is a salary throw-in, a lottery bust who could probably play some minutes on the still-terrible 2012-13 team (more on that later).

2012 DRAFT 

With the second pick in a draft with one star, things aren't perfect. But the second pick does have some value because a bunch of teams would love to have either wing of the stand-out wing players Bradley Beal and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Teams picking fourth or later will be motivated to move ahead of the Wizards to nab one of them. Because the Bobcats have needs at every position, they might be better served to turn one chip into two.

Best Scenario:

Trade #2 to Cleveland for #4 and #24. 

#4: Pick Harrison Barnes, a solid wing who can do a bit of everything offensively. Most agree he's talented enough to start right away and hold a spot for years to come.

#11 (from Portland via Kemba trade): Pick Jared Sullinger, a banger who can rebound and score. Perry Jones, Dion Waiters, and Jeremy Lamb should be on the board if he isn't.

#24: Gamble on Royce White, a top-10 talent who will likely fall because of off the court issues. If he's gone, target another high risk/reward type player.

Free Agency

Let the DJ's walk

Both DJ Augustin and DJ White are restricted free agents, and Charlotte can let them walk or make a deal. For Augistin, there's some sense in offering the qualifying offer at ~$4.4M to play one year. DJ White is not worth his $3M qual.

Throw the Kitchen Sink at Goran Dragic

Hitting unrestricted free agency at 26, the Rockets second point guard is in high demand. But Charlotte has more cap space than pretty much anybody, and since no one is crazy enough to offer him a max deal, they should be able to overpay to get him. 

Fallout

So what does all this leave us with? Here's a tentative depth lineup:

• C, Bismack Biyombo
• PF, Jared Sullinger
• SF, Harrison Barnes
• SG, Royce White
• PG, Goran Dragic

And the bench:

• Bigs, Tyrus Thomas & Byron Mullens
• Wings, Corey Maggette & Gerald Henderson
• Guards, DJ Augustin & Reggie Williams

Ok, so this team would still be AWFUL. Starting three rookies, one of them (White) who may not be able to attend road games due to a phobia of flying, is a recipe for disaster. Even with great player development, this team would struggle to win more than 15 games in a season for at least another year or two. 

 They would definitely have a better set of marketable guys though. Barnes in particular seems obsessed with his "brand", which for most teams would be a bad thing. But for a franchise in desperate need of attention, any kind of attention, it could work in their favor. White is also a very compelling and unique personality, if for different reasons.

But the future would look much much better. A front court of Biyombo and Sullinger is actually really interesting, because they are polar opposites from both a physical and talent standpoint. Not much risk of overlap there.  Mullens showed signs last year when healthy, and could be a solid scoring big off the bench. The other young guys are also talented players who should be good complementary guys eventually.

What they have needed since the start of the franchise is a star. That's not happening this summer, make no mistake about it. But, aside from the Goric splurge, they'd have almost no non-rookie contracts after 2012-13. They can really start hoarding cap space and draft picks, enabling the flexibility to acquire a disgruntled star via trade or a new one by drafting smart. 

So, what do you think?!