NBA Draft 2009: Top 4 Tiers

As I have described before, I like to think of the draft in terms of tiers. Different teams will order players differently within each tier, but the composition of each should not vary wildly from GM to GM (or blogger to blogger =p). I think the lottery (Top 14 players) this year is shaping into four distinct tiers:

Tier One: "Do Not Pass Go". There's only one player in Tier One this year. Blake Griffin was the dominant force in college basketball last year, and appears to have everything a GM or coach could dream of in a power forward.

• Blake Griffin: PF, Oklahoma. He is head and shoulders above the rest of this year's draft class, end of story. Gotta love how hard he plays on top of all that talent.
  

Tier Two: "The Good, The Tall, and the Flashy". By my estimation, there are three guys in the second tier this year. The two guards are risky, high ceiling guys. The center is far less risky, but might not be able to contribute much on offense.

• Ricky Rubio: PG, Spain. There is a ton of hype around this young, flashy point guard, and he is likely to be selected in the top five because of his dynamic playmaking ability. He has both a high ceiling and a low floor, I am very interested to see him in uniform next year, provided he can arrange a buyout from his European team.
  
• Hasheem Thabeet: C, Connecticut. He is a safe pick because of his sheer size at 7'3". His terrific defensive game translates well to the pros because of his unique size/quickness combination.
• DeMar DeRozan: SG, Southern Cal. As a UCLA fan, I hate to admit that this guy is one of my favorites in the draft. He had a so-so year in collge, but he has all the tools to be a really good two-way player in the NBA. He likely won't contend for rookie of the year, but I think down the line he will challenge Griffin as the best player from this draft.

Tier Three: "Lost In Translation". Each of the five players in this Tier are consensus top prospects, but no one can agree how their game will translate to the NBA game.

• James Harden: SG, Arizona State. He was one of the toughest guards in college last year, putting up great numbers all season. Until the NCAA tournament, where he was fairly ineffective. He isn't as tall or explosive as scouts would like, but he is strong and crafty,
  
• Jordan Hill: PF, Arizona. The intra-state antithesis of Harden, Hill relies on effort and brute force rather than wits and skill. His solid rebounding numbers bode well, but it is unclear what kind of offensive player he can be in the pros.
• Stephen Curry: PG, Davidson. The leading scorer in the NCAA has a sweet shot and has put on some fantastic shows in big games the last two seasons. There will be a big learning curve in the pros where he will be expected to play point guard and face much better defense.
• Brandon Jennings: G, U.S.A. He has to be the biggest question mark in this draft. The first (to my knowledge) elite American born prospect to play in Europe rather than the NCAA. His lack of success in the Euro game is hard to put into perspective, but he has a high ceiling.
• Tyreke Evans: PG, Memphis. Reminiscent of Penny Hardaway, Evans is a great scoring lead guard with superb size. His ability to defend and make plays for teammates will determine how far he goes as a pro.

Tier Four: "Little Fish Big Fish". Four of these players were complementary players for big-time programs. The other (Maynor) was a star player for a small-time program.

• Earl Clark: F, Louiville. He reminds be a bit of Josh Smith on Atlanta in that he has elite help defense skills and scores more effectively than you'd think. In the right situation, he could be a great pick.
• Jrue Holiday: G, UCLA. From a scouting (and Bruin fan) perspective, he should return for another year to be the starting lead guard for UCLA. Right now, it's hard to know what type of player he will be. I like his all around skill level and smarts, but he lacked assertiveness and agression in his only year in Westwood.
• Eric Maynor: PG, VCU. By all accounts, this guy is very talented. Because he played in obscurity until the end of the season, he is another hard-to-gauge prospect. If a team takes an NFL quarterback approach (play backup, learn from a vet for a few years), I like his odds.
• James Johnson: SF, Wake Forest. This guy has some Igoudala in him. He has great athleticism for a wing player, but doesn't have deep range on his shot. He could be a dangerous 2nd or 3rd option on a developing team, but doesn't have much star potential.
• Gerald Henderson: SG, Duke. He seemed to finally start to figure things out in his last year under Coach K. He is a solid all around prospect, but looks like a good complementary player at best.