Floor and Ceiling

In the NBA Draft, it is very popular to talk about potential. Players who have big "upside", or are "raw offensively", or "freakishly athletic" can often get drafted very highly (see Brown, Kwame) despite the fact that they can't play basketball very well. On the other hand, some very productive players get drafted too high even though their game doesn't translate well to the pro game (see Sean May and Shelden Williams). Both potential and production are important qualities. In this blog, I will be referring to Floor and Ceiling.

Floor
A player's floor is the worst case scenario. Every prospect has his detractors (except LeBron, Shaq, Duncan, etc.). To gauge a player's floor, just imagine that all the detractors are right, and that he can't overcome his flaws.

Ceiling
On the flip side of this coin, the ceiling is the best case scenario. If everything came together just right, how good could he really be?

Picking a player with a big gap in between floor and ceiling might be too risky, while picking a sure-thing with a low ceiling can be too conservative. There's no right way to rank players based on floor/ceiling, but it is a good way to compare players.