Wednesday, May 6, 2009

The Tier System

One way to prevent making poor draft choices by balancing Need versus Best Available is to use a Tier System. The idea is to group players into tiers, then prioritize players within each tier. When it's time to pick, you select the highest ranked player in the highest available tier. This strategy prevents teams from passing on good players who don't fit a need, and prevents teams from reaching for a player who does.

Here's how a Tier System could have helped Milwaukee and Atlanta avoid making the mistakes they made:
  • In 2005, the Hawks have the #2 overall pick. There were four players considered to be roughly equal by scouts. Hindsight may be 20/20, but this is what Tier One would look like if the Hawks had decided to prioritize point guard within Tier One. We'll never know if they liked Deron or CP3 better, but they definitely would have taken one of them using a Tier System.
Tier One
1. Chris Paul (PG), Deron Williams (PG)
3. Andrew Bogut (C)
4. Marvin Williams (F)
  • In 2008, the Bucks had the #8 overall pick. In this draft, #8 was a Tier Three pick. Rather than pick the player in Tier Two who fell to them, the Bucks picked their top player at a need position. Alexander would have been a nice pick if the Knicks and Clippers hadn't made mistakes of their own by prematurely reaching into Tier Three for their favorite player.
Tier One
1. Derek Rose
2.Michael Beasley
Tier Two
3. O.J. Mayo (SG)
4. Kevin Love (PF)
5. Russel Westbrook (G)
6. Brook Lopez (C)
Tier 3
7. Joe Alexander (F)
8. Eric Gordon (G)
9. D.J Augustin (G)
10. Danilo Gallinari (F)

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