Team Needs Countdown: #26 Chicago Bulls

Team Outlook: Chicago is coming off a successful post-trade-deadline rally and a great 7-game series against the defending champions. 2008 #1 pick Derrick Rose appears to be the team's first true star player since MJ, and there is some good talent around him in Joakim Noah, John Salmons, Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng who will return next season to counterbalance the likely loss of free agent Ben Gordon. While the media (and many fans) continue to call for major trades, I think the team is on solid ground without moving anyone.

Draft Needs: Chicago only played 7 players down the strech in 2009. Among them, Gordon is an unrestricted free agent, and Brad Miller will not be able to play extended minutes due to age. The Bulls' two draft picks (#'s 16 & 26 overall) will be needed to provide depth immediately to help return the team to the playoffs. Expect Chicago to select a big man with one pick and a guard with the other. The depth of guards being much stronger this year, it is likely they will pick the big man at #16 and the guard here at #27. John Paxson has shown a dedication to prioritizing players from top-performing programs, so don't be shocked to see more players with Final Four experience selected this year.

Possible Picks: Wayne Ellington (UNC), Nick Calathes (FL), Darren Collison (UCLA), Derrick Brown (Xavier), Danny Green (UNC)

Team Needs Countdown: #27 Memphis Grizzlies

Team Outlook: Memphis, like Chicago a few years ago, has a good stockpile of young complimentary players (Mayo, Gay, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley) but lacks a go-to guy. The direction of this franchise is unclear, and needs abound. No team needs to win the lottery more than Memphis.

Draft Needs: This pick will be the second of the round (likely top 6), and this pick will in part depend on who they get at the top. They will try to add depth with this pick, preferably a hybrid player who can come off the bench and cover multiple positions depending on the situation.

Possible Picks: Sam Young (Pitt), Nick Calathes (FL), Austin Daye (Gonzaga), Wayne Ellington (UNC)

Team Needs Countdown: #28 Minnesota Timberwolves

Team Outlook: It was a tough season for Minnesota. They started out terrible, fired their coach, then played great in early 2009. Unfortunately, Al Jefferson got hurt and they circled the drain. The good news is that they have possibly the best young front line in basketball with Jefferson and last year's lottery pick Kevin Love. Randy Foye made strides in his second season as a combo guard, but the beyond those three there is room for improvement.

Draft Needs: Barring trades, this will be the third selection for Minnesota in the first round (lottery and #18). With this pick, they can afford to gamble on a high risk/reward type player, most likely a guard or wing player.

Possible Picks: Nick Calathes (FL), Patrick Mills (St. Mary's), Sam Young (Pitt), Omri Casspi (Israel)

Team Needs Countdown: #29 L.A. Lakers

Team Overview: Kobe, Pau, Lamar. An extremely talented core group of players who are all in various stages of their prime. Quality young players like Ariza, Bynum, and Farmar need to improve if they are going to win championships, but they have to like the talent they have going forward.

Draft Needs: At first glace, LA is a shockingly deep team. But this season's playoffs have shown they lack toughness inside and consistent play from guards not named Kobe. I expect the Lakers to gamble with their late-round pick trying to address one of these issues. More competition at the open guard spot would be welcome for Phil Jackson, as well as another banger inside.

Possible Picks: Darren Collison (UCLA), Nick Calathes (Florida), Jeff Pendergraph (ASU)

Team Needs Countdown: #30 Cleveland Cavaliers

Team Overview: The tandem of Lebron and Mo Williams has been dynamite, and as long as those two are surrounded by quality role players who defend and/or hit open shots they will be a championship caliber team. Their front line is aging however; both Ilgauskas and Ben Wallace have contracts expiring after next season and are unlikely to contribute as starters in the future.

Draft Needs: This is a great team right now, but their front line after 2010 is a very murky picture. They drafted JJ Hickson last year and will likely resign Anderson Varejao this offseason, but clearly that isn't enough. I would expect Cleveland to target either a big man who can play the pick-and-pop or defend the paint.

Possible Picks: Tyler Hansborough (UNC), Taj Gibson (USC), Derrick Brown (Xavier)

NBA Draft 2009: Top 4 Tiers

As I have described before, I like to think of the draft in terms of tiers. Different teams will order players differently within each tier, but the composition of each should not vary wildly from GM to GM (or blogger to blogger =p). I think the lottery (Top 14 players) this year is shaping into four distinct tiers:

Tier One: "Do Not Pass Go". There's only one player in Tier One this year. Blake Griffin was the dominant force in college basketball last year, and appears to have everything a GM or coach could dream of in a power forward.

• Blake Griffin: PF, Oklahoma. He is head and shoulders above the rest of this year's draft class, end of story. Gotta love how hard he plays on top of all that talent.
  

Tier Two: "The Good, The Tall, and the Flashy". By my estimation, there are three guys in the second tier this year. The two guards are risky, high ceiling guys. The center is far less risky, but might not be able to contribute much on offense.

• Ricky Rubio: PG, Spain. There is a ton of hype around this young, flashy point guard, and he is likely to be selected in the top five because of his dynamic playmaking ability. He has both a high ceiling and a low floor, I am very interested to see him in uniform next year, provided he can arrange a buyout from his European team.
  
• Hasheem Thabeet: C, Connecticut. He is a safe pick because of his sheer size at 7'3". His terrific defensive game translates well to the pros because of his unique size/quickness combination.
• DeMar DeRozan: SG, Southern Cal. As a UCLA fan, I hate to admit that this guy is one of my favorites in the draft. He had a so-so year in collge, but he has all the tools to be a really good two-way player in the NBA. He likely won't contend for rookie of the year, but I think down the line he will challenge Griffin as the best player from this draft.

Tier Three: "Lost In Translation". Each of the five players in this Tier are consensus top prospects, but no one can agree how their game will translate to the NBA game.

• James Harden: SG, Arizona State. He was one of the toughest guards in college last year, putting up great numbers all season. Until the NCAA tournament, where he was fairly ineffective. He isn't as tall or explosive as scouts would like, but he is strong and crafty,
  
• Jordan Hill: PF, Arizona. The intra-state antithesis of Harden, Hill relies on effort and brute force rather than wits and skill. His solid rebounding numbers bode well, but it is unclear what kind of offensive player he can be in the pros.
• Stephen Curry: PG, Davidson. The leading scorer in the NCAA has a sweet shot and has put on some fantastic shows in big games the last two seasons. There will be a big learning curve in the pros where he will be expected to play point guard and face much better defense.
• Brandon Jennings: G, U.S.A. He has to be the biggest question mark in this draft. The first (to my knowledge) elite American born prospect to play in Europe rather than the NCAA. His lack of success in the Euro game is hard to put into perspective, but he has a high ceiling.
• Tyreke Evans: PG, Memphis. Reminiscent of Penny Hardaway, Evans is a great scoring lead guard with superb size. His ability to defend and make plays for teammates will determine how far he goes as a pro.

Tier Four: "Little Fish Big Fish". Four of these players were complementary players for big-time programs. The other (Maynor) was a star player for a small-time program.

• Earl Clark: F, Louiville. He reminds be a bit of Josh Smith on Atlanta in that he has elite help defense skills and scores more effectively than you'd think. In the right situation, he could be a great pick.
• Jrue Holiday: G, UCLA. From a scouting (and Bruin fan) perspective, he should return for another year to be the starting lead guard for UCLA. Right now, it's hard to know what type of player he will be. I like his all around skill level and smarts, but he lacked assertiveness and agression in his only year in Westwood.
• Eric Maynor: PG, VCU. By all accounts, this guy is very talented. Because he played in obscurity until the end of the season, he is another hard-to-gauge prospect. If a team takes an NFL quarterback approach (play backup, learn from a vet for a few years), I like his odds.
• James Johnson: SF, Wake Forest. This guy has some Igoudala in him. He has great athleticism for a wing player, but doesn't have deep range on his shot. He could be a dangerous 2nd or 3rd option on a developing team, but doesn't have much star potential.
• Gerald Henderson: SG, Duke. He seemed to finally start to figure things out in his last year under Coach K. He is a solid all around prospect, but looks like a good complementary player at best.
  

Floor and Ceiling

In the NBA Draft, it is very popular to talk about potential. Players who have big "upside", or are "raw offensively", or "freakishly athletic" can often get drafted very highly (see Brown, Kwame) despite the fact that they can't play basketball very well. On the other hand, some very productive players get drafted too high even though their game doesn't translate well to the pro game (see Sean May and Shelden Williams). Both potential and production are important qualities. In this blog, I will be referring to Floor and Ceiling.

Floor
A player's floor is the worst case scenario. Every prospect has his detractors (except LeBron, Shaq, Duncan, etc.). To gauge a player's floor, just imagine that all the detractors are right, and that he can't overcome his flaws.

Ceiling
On the flip side of this coin, the ceiling is the best case scenario. If everything came together just right, how good could he really be?

Picking a player with a big gap in between floor and ceiling might be too risky, while picking a sure-thing with a low ceiling can be too conservative. There's no right way to rank players based on floor/ceiling, but it is a good way to compare players.

The Tier System

One way to prevent making poor draft choices by balancing Need versus Best Available is to use a Tier System. The idea is to group players into tiers, then prioritize players within each tier. When it's time to pick, you select the highest ranked player in the highest available tier. This strategy prevents teams from passing on good players who don't fit a need, and prevents teams from reaching for a player who does.

Here's how a Tier System could have helped Milwaukee and Atlanta avoid making the mistakes they made:

• In 2005, the Hawks have the #2 overall pick. There were four players considered to be roughly equal by scouts. Hindsight may be 20/20, but this is what Tier One would look like if the Hawks had decided to prioritize point guard within Tier One. We'll never know if they liked Deron or CP3 better, but they definitely would have taken one of them using a Tier System.
  

Tier One

1. Chris Paul (PG), Deron Williams (PG)
3. Andrew Bogut (C)
4. Marvin Williams (F)

• In 2008, the Bucks had the #8 overall pick. In this draft, #8 was a Tier Three pick. Rather than pick the player in Tier Two who fell to them, the Bucks picked their top player at a need position. Alexander would have been a nice pick if the Knicks and Clippers hadn't made mistakes of their own by prematurely reaching into Tier Three for their favorite player.
  

Tier One
1. Derek Rose
2.Michael Beasley

Tier Two
3. O.J. Mayo (SG)
4. Kevin Love (PF)
5. Russel Westbrook (G)
6. Brook Lopez (C)
Tier 3
7. Joe Alexander (F)
8. Eric Gordon (G)
9. D.J Augustin (G)
10. Danilo Gallinari (F)

Draft Strategy Types

Teams clearly take different strategies in how they prepare for the draft. This can depend heavily on draft order and the specific situation in which each team finds itself. But in general, each GM balances two major different philosophies:

Need: Every team has needs, even the champs. One draft philosophy is to simply take the available player who best serves that specific need.

• Good Example: 2008 #4, Russell Westbrook to the Thunder. OKC needed a tough lead guard to defend and complement their star player Kevin Durant. They "reached" for Westbrook which appears to be a great move.
  
• Bad Example: 2008 #8, Joe Alexander to the Bucks. Milwaukee had a need at small forward. Brook Lopez was available, but because previous #1 overall Andrew Bogut is considered an anchor at center, they pass on him.

Best Available: This was a popular choice for GMs after the Trailblazers passed on Michael Jordan. Simply rank each player in a straight line and take your favorite, regardless of the make-up of your team.

• Good Example: 2008 #1, Derek Rose to the Bulls. With glaring needs at power forward and a glut of guards, the Chicago Bulls select Derek Rose #1 overall. After a stellar Rookie of the Year season, he appears poised to lead Chicago for years to come. Some called for them to select Michael Beasley, projected as a top power forward prospect. Turns out, he's actually a wing player.
  
• Bad Example: 2005 #2, Marvin Williams to the Hawks. This pick has been the topic of much discussion. Rather than address a need at point guard by selecting Deron Williams or Chris Paul, the Hawks went with their favorite player who did not fill a team need. The team was very unbalanced for several years, and Williams has never lived up to the pick while Deron and CP3 are All-Stars.

Introduction to the 2009 NBA Draft

Welcome to the Draft Guide! The 2009 NBA Draft might not be as loaded with talent as the 2008, but there are some very intriguing players, team situations, and financial changes coming into the league that make this a fun event to follow.

Here are the top five things to know about the 2009 NBA Draft:

1. The first pick will be Blake Griffin, a sophmore forward from the University of Oklahoma.
2. As we learned last year with Chicago landing the top pick (1.7% chance), anything can happen with the lottery (May 19) so teams picking 1-13 cannot be sure of where they will be selecting.
   
3. Non-lottery teams (picks 14-30) know exactly where they will be selecting now that all the tie-breakers have been performed.
4. There is great depth at the point guard position this year, and far less depth than usual at all other positions.
5. Other than Blake Griffin, there are no players in this draft who are consensus star players.

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