NBA Draft 2015: Final Mock draft (lottery only)

Well, being a parent and having a real job means not nearly as much time to putz around working on mock drafts. For 2015, I'm just going to post my final lottery mock, screenshot-ed off of ESPN's Mock Draft Machine to save time. 

Analysis:

1. Towns is an easy top pick, it will be fun to League Pass him and Wiggins learning to play together.
2. The Lakers are trying to be up to stuff, but are probably smart to just grab the big fella and hope his defense develops.
3. The Magic desperately need floor spacing, and having Porzingis could really open up their offense. They'll have to give up at least one good asset to get him.
4. The Knicks are just praying for Russel or Okafor to fall to them, and here they get their guard.
5. I'm sold on the conspiracy theory that the 76ers have targeted Mudiay all along and are happy to squeeze an asset out of Orlando if they can move down and still get their #2 target.
6. Hezonja is perfectly imperfect for the messed-up Kings.
7. Winslow to Denver is basically 2015 draft canon at this point. It just feels like an awesome fit.
8. Apparently Frank is running up the boards at the last minute, and with Greg Monroe one foot out the door he'd be an ideal fit next to Drummond in SVG's front court.
9. The Hornets (I love that the logo on the ESPN Mock Machine is still the Bobcats!) desperately need shooting and Hunter is the best overall basketball player left who is a good shooter.
10. Miami is in serious flux with Wade possibly leaving and Dragic a free agent. It's either going to be a total re-build or a situation where rookies won't be playing too much during a playoff push, so Pat Riley has the luxury of swinging for the fences. Turner would do very well to learn from Chris Bosh, they have some similarities in their physique, game, and early experience.
11. The Pacers have had no luck whenever George Hill is off the floor, so the heady Payne makes sense in a back-up/insurance/future PG perspective.
12. WCS has too much raw defensive talent to fall too much farther than this.
13. The local product happens to be the best player available, so why not? They have a sneaky need at the wing, as Marcus Morris and PJ Tucker don't really seem like long term starters.
14. The Thunder would do very well to pick up the multi-talented Dekker here. Playing on a team where all eyes are on Durant/Westbrook would give him an amazing opportunity to get the ball with space, where he is extremely dangerous.

That's it, there's no way I could say anything of value outside the lottery because I haven't had time to do my homework. Enjoy the draft!

2015 NBA Draft Top 5 Preview and Mock

The Minnesota Timberwolves will feature three consecutive #1 overall picks next season, an unprecedented youth movement coinciding with the likely retirement of the team's best ever player.

The Lakers and Knicks have questionable leadership and mostly barren rosters beyond their aging and injured superstars.

The 76ers and Magic want to win the Eastern Conference. In about four years or so.

These are the undercurrents behind the top 5 picks in this year's NBA Draft; divergent paths and opposite histories headed in all directions. Should be another fascinating lead-up. Here's my first look at how the picks will go down:

1. Minnesota Timberwolves
Reigning Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins is about the only for-sure keeper on this team, though they have some other interesting young players around him. I'm not sold on Rubio being the long-term solution at point guard, though he tends to be undervalued because his excellent defense has been wasted on bad teams. They will go with whoever they think is the best player, which I believe is a difficult decision between Towns and Russell. Towns would be the conventional pick, but a backcourt of Wiggins and Russell could be among the most dangerous in the league in just a few years. Ultimately, if they feel they can find trade partners for Rubio or Kevin Martin, Russell might be the best option. In the end though, Towns is the safer pick by far.

PREDICTION: Karl-Anthony Towns, 6'11" C, University of Kentucky
Pros: Towns projects as a solid 2-way big. He should be able to protect the rim and provide average offense, which is a rare and hugely valuable archetype.
Cons: His offense may not ever develop, which would limit his ceiling to a shorter Tyson Chandler type.

2. Los Angeles Lakers
With Kobe taking up 2/3 of the teams payroll as of July 1, this is a very lopsided team. Last year's lottery pick Julius Randle played in only one game before breaking his leg and missing his rookie season, so we don't know if he'll be any good. Jordan Clarkson was a nice story in the second half of the year, but most of his success happened long after the games stopped mattering. I feel pretty strongly that they should take Towns or Russell, whoever falls to them. If they are both on the board, I'd take Russell. The league is now dominated by Harden, Curry, Westbrook, Wall, Rose... you name it. Having a star lead guard is the 21st century equivalent of a low-post center in the 70s-80s. With that said, the Lakers have been center obsessed since George Mikan, and because Okafor anchored a team that won an NCAA title for Coach K, he has the pedigree they have always chased. Basically, I don't trust Dr. Buss' children to make the right move and take Russell.

PREDICTION: Jahlil Okafor, 6'11" PF, Duke University
Pros: Possesses skilled post footwork and excellent touch around the basket.
Cons: Lacks defensive chops, meaning that he will need to be paired with a defensive big. That means he's really more of a power forward than center.

3. Philadelphia 76ers
The tank job appears to be working. This seems to be an obvious landing spot for Russell, who would become literally the only PG on the team. If that happens, they may well end up with the best player in three consecutive drafts while picking no higher than 3 (#HinkieForPresident). If he is unavailable, they will take Towns or Okafor off the board and play him in an embarrassment of riches young big-man rotation with Embiid and Noel. One of those three would need to be traded eventually to balance the roster, but they all have plenty of value around the league.

PREDICTION: D'Angelo Russell, 6'5" PG, the Ohio State University
Pros: Can score in many ways, excelled in nearly every way as a 19-year old freshman.
Cons: Has had some trouble against elite wing defenders.

4. New York Knicks
Bad news Knicks fans: still the Knicks. Why did they trade JR and Shump for nothing? Why? I am still mad and confused. Melo, Calderon, Hardaway Jr., and Early are now the only guys on this team. Period. Melo's contract runs through 2018/19, when he will be making $27.9M. I don't care how much the cap is jumping, that's an awful contract. This is easily the most depressing team state in the league. There's basically only one scenario for success: Marc Gasol signs as a FA, Melo gets healthy, they grab a wing or two (Danny Green?), and nail the draft. That's probably a top 5 team in the East. As for the draft, Mudiay makes sense here. They need to swing for the fences, and while he's a very high risk the upside is there.

PREDICTION: Emmanuel Mudiay, 6'5" PG, Republic of the Congo
Pros: Has rare size and athleticism for a point guard.
Cons: Has never played against peers in a meaningful game, so it is impossible to assess his true ability level.

5. Orlando Magic
The Magic have been slowly building a talented team, with a young core of versatile individuals in Vucevic, Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton. But when you fit the pieces together, there are major holes on both sides of the floor. Offensively, none of those guys can shoot threes at a high level. That's a problem. Defensively, they seem to be headed towards rim protector + 4 switchers defense, similar to the lead-leading Warriors and Bucks. The smalls can all guard multiple positions, but Vucevic is not a good enough defender to execute the scheme. So what they really need is an elite rim protector who can shoot threes (possibly relevant side-note: there has never been a player like that). With all that said, the Magic will probably continue with a best available approach. Porzingis is a versatile talent who can learn the trade under Channing Frye.

PREDICTION: Kristaps Porzingis, 6'11" PF, Latvia
Pros: Is a skilled big who played well against adult competition in Europe. He fits well with the modern NBA concept of bigs who can move, shoot, and defend all over the floor.
Cons: Won't be able to bang inside in his first years in the league.

The east: It really isn't so bad any more

The balance of power has shifted again in the NBA. Some of the changes are more subtle than the conference's two best players coming back home (James from Miami and Rose from the surgeon's table). Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson switching teams, the return of Al Horford, and the growth of all those Canadians should have a serious impact. Overall, I think the conference is much stronger now that in was in 2013-14. There are clearly 8 playoff teams now, listed below. None of the top five teams would shock me if they were to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals in 2015.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
The best basketball player in the world plays for this team, if you haven't heard. LeBron with 7 average players has a chance to make the finals every year. With any luck, one or several of Irving, Waiters, Thompson, Wiggins, Varejao, and Bennett will prove above average. Also, Kevin Love.

2. Chicago Bulls
Even if Derrick Rose isn't a major factor, this is a dangerous team. Defense will always be a strength under Thibs, and they may have the best front court in the league. Adding a two-time champion in Gasol (who was awesome offensively last year), the best player in Europe, and the NCAA national college player of the year give this team incredible depth. This team looks like a title contender, at least on paper.

3. Washington Wizards
Stealing Paul Pierce is an underrated off-season move. In addition to adding gravitas and championship experience, he can play small-ball 4 with Gortat when Nene is out. Their soon-to-be-epic back court should only improve, and last year's lottery pick Otto Porter looks to have gained major confidence headed into this season as Ariza's replacement.

4. Toronto Raptors
Without making any serious changes to the rotation, the Raps are betting that another year together and more development from young studs DeRozan and Valanciunas will be enough to contend in the East. I tend to agree.

5. Charlotte Hornets
No longer the Bobcats, no longer a Joke. While power forward is a position of weakness, this team is suddenly loaded with talent. Getting Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson in consecutive summers is a major coup for this franchise. They now have two creative ball-handlers (Lance and Kemba), the league's best post-up center offensively, a terrific coach, and good role players. Nobody will want to play the Hornets. If lottery pick Noah Vonleh can step in and provide floor spacing and rim protection by season's end, this team could make a very deep run.

6. Indiana Pacers
The Pacers trajectory has tailed off dramatically, to the point where I don't think Frank Vogel is guaranteed to make it through the season with his job. They will likely sport a top 5 defense and get into the playoffs without any trouble. But there is no end in sight for the offensive woes of this team.

7. Atlanta Hawks
Similar to Chicago, the Hawks were without their best player last season and still looked like a real playoff team. Having Horford back will make the Hawks far more competitive at both ends. Their depth isn't great, especially on the wings, but they play an interchangeable style and have a good coach so I think they are on the fringe of truly competing for a spot in the East Finals.

8. Miami Heat
LeBron left, dropping the Heat out of Finals contention. But they rebounded nicely by signing Bosh and Deng. Wade is clearly on his last legs and can't carry the team for long stretches, but look for Eric Spoelstra to prove his worth as a coach this year; he really is one of the best. Their ceiling is probably a tough first-round battle, but we're talking about the 8th best team in the East here, so that's a dramatic improvement over previous sub-500 East playoff squads.

Fighting for that 8 spot:
Nets: despite Brook Lopez returning, the loss of Pierce is just too much for Brooklyn.
Knicks: sorry Melo, I just don't think there's enough talent around you in Manhattan. Love the Cleanthony Early pick though.
Pistons: I have no clue what Stan Van Gundy is up to, and neither do you. Maybe there's some voodoo magic out there and he can flip Josh Smith and Gregg Monroe into some better fitting pieces around the terrifying Andre Drummond.

The other teams in the East are all terrible. Terrible. You might see some inflated win totals among the teams listed above because of the competitive imbalance.

2014 NBA Mock Draft v2

The 2014 NBA Draft is only a few days away, so here's my final mock draft.

#	Team	Player
1	Cleveland Cavaliers	Andrew Wiggins	It’s time for Cleveland to not overthink things. Wiggins has looked like a #1 for a solid year, and has the rare athletic talent and size to be a dominant wing player. I think his detractors are forgetting how young he is. Like all prospects, development will be key for him.
2	Milwaukee Bucks	Jabari Parker	This seems like an increasingly good fit for both sides. Parker can start his career in the anonymity of Milwaukee and work on his craft.
3	Philadelphia 76ers	Noah Vonleh	The Sixers are as disappointed as any team about Embiid’s injury, because it means Wiggins is less likely to fall to 3. I think they should pair Vonleh with Nerlens Noel and create a dynamic inside tandem with great complementary skills.
4	Orlando Magic	Dante Exum	They’ll be tempted by Embiid, but ultimately the risk is too high with Exum sitting on the board.
5	Utah Jazz	Marcus Smart	The back court of Smart and Burke would be non-traditional for sure, but a smart coach could make it work (see Hornacek, J.)
6	Boston Celtics	Joel Embiid	Danny Ainge knows a rare asset when he sees one, and will likely grab Embiid if available, if for no other reason than to strengthen their bid for Kevin Love.
7	LA Lakers	Julius Randle	Believe it or not, the Lakers are rebuilding. Randle is a forgotten man in this draft, but could easily average a double-double as a rookie and remind everyone why he was considered a top 5 prospect for most of the year.
8	Sacramento Kings	Aaron Gordon	He’s the best player available and fills a need. Clean score for the Kings, who should be getting better soon… right?
9	Charlotte Hornets	Gary Harris	Coach Steve Clifford is smart enough to know that he can’t get away with playing subpar defenders on the wing with Big Al manning the center position. Yes, they need shooters, but those shooters have to be able to stay on the floor defensively. That’s why I like Harris here.
10	Philadelphia 76ers	Nik Stauskas	The best shooter in the draft is a great fit here.
11	Denver Nuggets	Doug McDermott	Nobody knows what type of team Brian Shaw wants to build, but the legacy (and atmosphere) of the team always shifts towards fast-paced offence. Doug has a million tricks up his sleeve and should pair nicely with Ty Lawson.
12	Orlando Magic	James Young	With Aaron Afflalo being shopped, wing depth is a key need. Young is a nice upside pick here.
13	Minnesota T’Wolves	Rodney Hood	The best shooter on the board, Hood can space the floor for Flip Saunder’s offense.
14	Phoenix Suns	Dario Saric	Saric will spend the next 2-3 years in Turkey, which is OK with the Suns.
15	Atlanta Hawks	Elfrid Payton	There are rumors of Payton going much higher than this, but this is probably his floor. The Hawks have never been sold on Jeff Teague as the long-term solution at point guard, so it’s a good fit.
16	Chicago Bulls	Clint Capela	As I mentioned in a previous post, the Bulls are more focused on Melo than this draft. Using this pick on an international “stasher” can help save cap space now. Capela has out of this world length and projected stats, the makings of a future defensive anchor.
17	Boston Celtics	Zach LaVine	Briefly considered a top-10 prospect, LaVine has athleticism in spades but has no idea how to play basketball. Trust me, I’m a UCLA fan. I like the idea of Celtics “royal jelly” working its magic on this kid.
18	Phoenix Suns	Tyler Ennis	Rumors are going around that the Suns are looking for a point guard. Who knows if that’s true or why, but Ennis is a good value here anyways.
19	Chicago Bulls	Adreian Payne	Falling on draft boards due to his age (he’s 6 months older than Kawhi Leonard), Payne could fill a role as a backup big immediately because of his length, rebounding, and shooting ability.
20	Toronto Raptors	Jarnell Stokes	This bruising forward has been charging up draft boards due to his similar stats and measurables to Julius Randle. The Raptors are a good team, so they can develop this talented but raw young big man.
21	OKC Thunder	PJ Hairston	Hairston shot around leave average from 3pt range in the D-League, but was an 87% free throw shooter. This shooting potential, along with his NBA-ready frame, could make him a solid role-player for a shallow Thunder squad.
22	Memphis Grizzlies	Kyle Anderson	Something tells me the Grizz can figure out a way to incorporate Slo-Mo. He’d probably be better than Tayshaun Prince on opening night 2014-15.
23	Utah Jazz	Jusuf Nurkic	Seven footers who can score with their back to the basket used to get drafted in the top 5. This young man from Bosnia could be a terrific scoring big off the bench in a few years.
24	Charlotte Hornets	Shabazz Napier	Napier is a very similar prospect to the dynamic Kemba Walker. What a luxury it would be for Clifford to have a Kemba clone on the bench!
25	Houston Rockets	KJ McDaniels	The perimeter defense on the Rockets is flat horrible. Who guards Durant? Nobody. McDaniels doesn’t have a strong offensive game, but is a fantastic athlete and defender.
26	Miami Heat	Jordan Clarkson	Chalmers likely won’t get an invitation back, so Norris Cole needs a backup. Clarkson may be underrated in this draft due to a challenging junior season and being 22 years old.
27	Phoenix Suns	Cleanthony Early	Early is a great fit with what their building in the desert.
28	LA Clippers	Mitch McGary	The Clippers desperately need another big, and McGary has more skills than the competition at this point.
29	OKC Thunder	TJ Warren	I actually like Warren at #21 for them, so if he falls here he might be hard to pass up.
30	San Antonio Spurs	Jordan Adams	The metrics say Adams is one of the best prospects in this whole draft, and the Spurs certainly know how to get the best out of players passed on by other teams due to perceived limitations.

2014 NBA Draft Mock v1

The Cavs? Again? REALLY?!

This is going to be a "should do" mock, as in, this is what I think each team should do with their pick(s).

As always, thanks in advance to @ChadFordInsider and www.draftexpress.com for their in depth coverage.

#	Team	Player
1	Cleveland Cavaliers	Joel Embiid	Embiid has the best chance in this draft class to be elite at both ends of the floor. I think the Cavs will actually opt for the "more ready" Wiggins or Parker, but that could be a(nother) costly mistake.
2	Milwaukee Bucks	Jabari Parker	With a new ownership and a bad roster filled with long contracts, the Bucks need a spark to get fans interested, not necessarily championship cornerstones. Parker may not be good enough defensively to ever anchor a contender, but his dazzling offensive arsenal will draw national attention.
3	Philadelphia 76ers	Andrew Wiggins	With a point guard as reigning rookie of the year and last year’s top ranked prospect joining the team to defend the rim, this young team is desperate for wing talent. They would happily snap up Wiggins here and hope he can become a better version of Iguodala.
4	Orlando Magic	Dante Exum	Most NBA nerds are excited about the Oladipo era, and combined with Exum the Magic would have one of the league’s most explosive backcourts. Who cares which one plays point guard?
5	Utah Jazz	Noah Vonleh	Vonleh has ideal size, athleticism, and age for a top 5 prospect. He’s a good rebounder and emerging shooter, leading to favorable comparisons to Chris Bosh. He can play behind Enes Canter and Derrick Favors while he grows up.
6	Boston Celtics	Julius Randle	The players available here are actually quite similar to players they already have. Randle and Jared Sullinger overlap significantly as undersized offense-first power forwards, but Randle is just better all around.
7	LA Lakers	Marcus Smart	The Lakers have very few players. Period. They’ll need someone to actually dribble the ball, so a point guard makes sense. Getting Smart here would be a coup because he has the personality type (and talent) to keep with Kobe, if he ever returns to form.
8	Sacramento Kings	Aaron Gordon	The Kings desperately need a power forward to play with star DeMarcus Cousins. It’s unclear whether or not Gordon can shoot, but his defense-first mentality and unselfish athleticism are ideal to fill that void.
9	Charlotte Hornets	Zach LaVine	As a playoff team with a top-10 pick, the Hornets have fewer needs than typical lottery teams. They have the luxury of swinging for the fences on the talented but unproven UCLA guard. He won’t have to start as a rookie, and if he ends up being a point guard or a wing it doesn't matter to them. Of the players likely available here, he has the most upside.
10	Philadelphia 76ers	Dario Saric	The Sixers are playing the long game, so they don’t mind if Saric stays in Europe another year or so. He’s a top-5 talent with a #10 pick.
11	Denver Nuggets	Gary Harris	His athleticism and shooting are a great fit with this team, and he should be an immediate upgrade over last year’s starter Randy Foye.
12	Orlando Magic	Nik Stauskas	The Magic will continue to shop Jameer Nelson and Arron Afflalo for younger players and draft picks, and Stauskas could fill into the potentially thin guard rotation with excellent shooting.
13	Minnesota T’Wolves	James Young	This team really banked on Chase Buddinger to provide 3pt shooting and wing defense, be he regressed badly after some unfortunate injuries. Young has great potential with excellent physical tools and big performances in the NCAA tournament at only 18 years old.
14	Phoenix Suns	Doug McDermott	PJ Tucker is a free agent, so there may be playing time open for a small forward. McDermott can rain threes while Dragic and Bledsoe cut opposing defenses to pieces.
15	Atlanta Hawks	Rodney Hood	The Hawks really need a wing here, and will have a few to choose from. Hood has the best size and shooting ability of the guys still on the board.
16	Chicago Bulls	Adreiane Payne	Payne is a good defender, shooter, and rebounder. His 7’4” wingspan suggests he can both big positions. The major question is his age, 23, which limits his upside. Chicago, in win-now mode, shouldn't be bothered by his maturity.
17	Boston Celtics	Tyler Ennis	He’s got borderline lottery talent and is clearly the best player available. The C's can worry about fit later, this pick is about gathering assets.
18	Phoenix Suns	Cleanthony Early	A fast, high-character freak athlete who can shoot 3's? The more the merrier in the desert.
19	Chicago Bulls	Elfrid Payton	If the Bulls gamble and don’t pick a point guard to back up DRose at #16, they would be thrilled to see Payton fall to them here. He has size and a smooth game and should fit in nicely with the Bull’s annually strong bench.
20	Toronto Raptors	Jerami Grant	The Raptors were very good last year, and have youth enough to get even better through internal development. They can take a swing with Grant; if he ever develops an outside shot, he could be a steal. If not, he’s another athlete off the bench to play some defense.
21	OKC Thunder	T.J. Warren	In case you don’t remember, the Thunder bench had some major problems scoring in the 2014 Western finals. Warren is a crafty and talented scorer who could bolster that meager second unit.
22	Memphis Grizzlies	P.J. Hairston	The strong player culture in Memphis might be perfect to bring out his many talents. He’d get plenty of open looks with ZBo and Gasol up front.
23	Utah Jazz	Clint Capela	With so many young players on the roster already, Utah may be looking for an opportunity to draft and stash. The lanky Swiss has fallen out of favor with scouts due to how raw he is, but he has the best physical tools of all the international prospects.
24	Charlotte Hornets	Mitch McGary	Again, the Hornets can afford take a chance with their pick. McGary has shown flashes of brilliance, especially in the 2013 NCAA tournament, but has seen his stock slide due to a tough sophomore campaign marred by injuries.
25	Houston Rockets	K.J. McDaniels	The Rockets are sorely lacking in wing defenders. McDaniels is a terrific athlete and projects as a good defender. If he can develop a more consistent outside shot he could earn a starting spot for this team.
26	Miami Heat	Shabazz Napier	Mario Chalmers is entering free agency this offseason. If he leaves, Norris Cole will likely take over his starting spot, leaving a vacancy at backup guard. Napier has the confidence to roll with the big boys, as evidenced by his amazing title run at UConn, and should be a good fit with the 4-in-a-row Eastern champs.
27	Phoenix Suns	Nick Johnson	With their 3rd first round pick, the Suns grab the local product with incredible hops and a strong perimeter game. He lacks ideal size, but this team is unconventional enough to make it work.
28	LA Clippers	Kyle Anderson	Another local Pac-12 pick, the Clippers could use some wing depth due to the tragic loss of Jared Dudley’s one half-step of quickness.
29	OKC Thunder	Jusuf Nurkic	This behemoth center is a good draft-and-stash candidate. He could potentially replace Kendrick Perkins as the resident lumberer.
30	San Antonio Spurs	Bogdan Bogdanovic	This Serb is described as a versatile guard with excellent shooting range and court vision. Sounds to me like a future member of the “Foreign Legion.”