The Minnesota Timberwolves will feature three consecutive #1 overall picks next season, an unprecedented youth movement coinciding with the likely retirement of the team's best ever player.
The Lakers and Knicks have questionable leadership and mostly barren rosters beyond their aging and injured superstars.
The 76ers and Magic want to win the Eastern Conference. In about four years or so.
These are the undercurrents behind the top 5 picks in this year's NBA Draft; divergent paths and opposite histories headed in all directions. Should be another fascinating lead-up. Here's my first look at how the picks will go down:
1. Minnesota Timberwolves
Reigning Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins is about the only for-sure keeper on this team, though they have some other interesting young players around him. I'm not sold on Rubio being the long-term solution at point guard, though he tends to be undervalued because his excellent defense has been wasted on bad teams. They will go with whoever they think is the best player, which I believe is a difficult decision between Towns and Russell. Towns would be the conventional pick, but a backcourt of Wiggins and Russell could be among the most dangerous in the league in just a few years. Ultimately, if they feel they can find trade partners for Rubio or Kevin Martin, Russell might be the best option. In the end though, Towns is the safer pick by far.
PREDICTION: Karl-Anthony Towns, 6'11" C, University of Kentucky
Pros: Towns projects as a solid 2-way big. He should be able to protect the rim and provide average offense, which is a rare and hugely valuable archetype.
Cons: His offense may not ever develop, which would limit his ceiling to a shorter Tyson Chandler type.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
With Kobe taking up 2/3 of the teams payroll as of July 1, this is a very lopsided team. Last year's lottery pick Julius Randle played in only one game before breaking his leg and missing his rookie season, so we don't know if he'll be any good. Jordan Clarkson was a nice story in the second half of the year, but most of his success happened long after the games stopped mattering. I feel pretty strongly that they should take Towns or Russell, whoever falls to them. If they are both on the board, I'd take Russell. The league is now dominated by Harden, Curry, Westbrook, Wall, Rose... you name it. Having a star lead guard is the 21st century equivalent of a low-post center in the 70s-80s. With that said, the Lakers have been center obsessed since George Mikan, and because Okafor anchored a team that won an NCAA title for Coach K, he has the pedigree they have always chased. Basically, I don't trust Dr. Buss' children to make the right move and take Russell.
PREDICTION: Jahlil Okafor, 6'11" PF, Duke University
Pros: Possesses skilled post footwork and excellent touch around the basket.
Cons: Lacks defensive chops, meaning that he will need to be paired with a defensive big. That means he's really more of a power forward than center.
3. Philadelphia 76ers
The tank job appears to be working. This seems to be an obvious landing spot for Russell, who would become literally the only PG on the team. If that happens, they may well end up with the best player in three consecutive drafts while picking no higher than 3 (#HinkieForPresident). If he is unavailable, they will take Towns or Okafor off the board and play him in an embarrassment of riches young big-man rotation with Embiid and Noel. One of those three would need to be traded eventually to balance the roster, but they all have plenty of value around the league.
PREDICTION: D'Angelo Russell, 6'5" PG, the Ohio State University
Pros: Can score in many ways, excelled in nearly every way as a 19-year old freshman.
Cons: Has had some trouble against elite wing defenders.
4. New York Knicks
Bad news Knicks fans: still the Knicks. Why did they trade JR and Shump for nothing? Why? I am still mad and confused. Melo, Calderon, Hardaway Jr., and Early are now the only guys on this team. Period. Melo's contract runs through 2018/19, when he will be making $27.9M. I don't care how much the cap is jumping, that's an awful contract. This is easily the most depressing team state in the league. There's basically only one scenario for success: Marc Gasol signs as a FA, Melo gets healthy, they grab a wing or two (Danny Green?), and nail the draft. That's probably a top 5 team in the East. As for the draft, Mudiay makes sense here. They need to swing for the fences, and while he's a very high risk the upside is there.
PREDICTION: Emmanuel Mudiay, 6'5" PG, Republic of the Congo
Pros: Has rare size and athleticism for a point guard.
Cons: Has never played against peers in a meaningful game, so it is impossible to assess his true ability level.
5. Orlando Magic
The Magic have been slowly building a talented team, with a young core of versatile individuals in Vucevic, Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton. But when you fit the pieces together, there are major holes on both sides of the floor. Offensively, none of those guys can shoot threes at a high level. That's a problem. Defensively, they seem to be headed towards rim protector + 4 switchers defense, similar to the lead-leading Warriors and Bucks. The smalls can all guard multiple positions, but Vucevic is not a good enough defender to execute the scheme. So what they really need is an elite rim protector who can shoot threes (possibly relevant side-note: there has never been a player like that). With all that said, the Magic will probably continue with a best available approach. Porzingis is a versatile talent who can learn the trade under Channing Frye.
PREDICTION: Kristaps Porzingis, 6'11" PF, Latvia
Pros: Is a skilled big who played well against adult competition in Europe. He fits well with the modern NBA concept of bigs who can move, shoot, and defend all over the floor.
Cons: Won't be able to bang inside in his first years in the league.
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