Welcome to Hell: Denver Nuggets Edition

Take a look at the Denver Nugget's salary cap situation (via HoopsHype.com). Seriously, look at it.

Next season, without including their likely top 10 draft pick (more on that later) or adding anyone in free agency, the Denver Nuggets will have a higher payroll than this season and be well over the salary cap. The salary dump of Professor Andre Miller keeps them under the tax, but after signing their first round draft pick they'll be over $66M in payroll. Oh, and did I mention they're bad at basketball?

Well actually, they're more of a middling basketball team; right in the middle of the league in offensive efficiency and in the bottom third defensively, per ESPN. Their average margin of -2 is certainly not playoff caliber, but it's also not 2011-12 Bobcats awful (-14!!!!). They have one of the league's best point guards in Ty Lawson, who is managing to maintain a high level of play despite having to carry an offense with few other weapons. The Manimal, Kenneth Faried, is the type of role player every team would love to have. Beyond that, the roster is fairly barren.

The problem is, it's hard to see how they get any better. The JaVale McGee contract (>$12M per year for three more seasons) is among the worst in the league and Gallinari's isn't much better (two more years over $11M). Gallo has been hurt on and off for years now, and JaVale was never worth that kind of guaranteed money. Perhaps if both were healthy and performing at their peaks this team would be more dangerous, but there's no reasonable expectation that such scenario will actually occur.

There's a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel, in that they own the New York Knick's 2014 draft pick from the Carmelo trade. Unfortunately, they have to convey their own pick to Orlando (part of the Dwight Howard trade that landed them Iguodala for one year), meaning that in essence this is a pick swap only, and Orlando comes out the real winner. That Knick's pick would be the #9 overall if the season ended today, and is most likely going to fall in the 7-11 range when all is said and done. Without some lottery magic, that's a good pick but not a franchise-changer.

So where do they go from here? Lawson is only 26 years old, just entering his peak. They could try and move him for draft picks, but I doubt they'd get a better player. Rebuilding around him is problematic because of the salary problems, but it can be done if they are committed to bottoming out in the 2014/15 season. Few fans have any idea what the 2015 draft will look like.

Here are some moves which could improve their outlook:

Trade #1:

Celtics receive:
2014 first round draft pick from Knick's ~#9 overall
2014 second round draft pick from Denver ~#43 overall
Danilo Gallinari

Denver receives:
2014 first round draft pick from Hawks/Nets, #17-21 overall
Brandon Bass
Joel Anthony

The salaries match, but Gallo's is one year longer. So in this trade, the Celtics are renting cap space in 2015/16 for the right to get a second pick in the top 10, plus a second rounder as a sweetener. If Gallo gets healthy, he could provide a veteran scoring punch for a very young team. For Denver, they get $10M of cap space cleared for the summer of 2015 and still hold onto a first rounder. Bass is a solid pro and locker room guy, and Anthony would probably be cut. He somehow has a $3.8M player option this summer which he would be insane to decline.

Trade #2:

Oklahoma City receives:
Kenneth Faried

Denver receives:
#21 overall pick (from Dallas)
#29 overall pick (OKC's own)
Hasheem Thabeet

This requires that the Mavs keep up their solid play, as this pick is top 20 protected. But those two picks combined have a similar salary hit to Faried alone in 2014/15, and OKC would much rather have a proven veteran than two more rookies. For Denver, they pick up two "swings" at first rounders for a total of 3 picks in the second half of the draft. Paying Thabeet's final year at $1.2M is the cost of doing business.

The 2014/15 season would be tank-city after these trades; time for coach Brian Shaw to bring in rookies who fit his system (assuming he has one?). In the summer of 2015, they would likely have a top 5 pick and they will be able to decline team options on Wilson Chandler, Timofey Mozgov, and Randy Foye (totaling $15M).

Their entire roster in summer 2015 would come in at around $40M, leaving them about one max contract slot under the cap (currently $58M, probably >$60M by then):

Ty Lawson ($12M)
JaVale McGee ($12M)
Evan Fournier ($2.3M, team can decline option if he doesn't get better)
JJ Hickson ($5.6M, very movable contract)
#17 pick 2014 (~$1.5M)
#21 pick 2014 (~$1M)
#29 pick 2014 (~$1M)
Top 5 pick 2015 ($5M or less)

There's not much chance of a big name star like Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge (both FA's in 2015) signing into that cap space, but OKC and Houston have shown that hoarding cap space and picks can help build a contender quickly. If everything falls just right, they may even be back in the playoffs for the 2015/16 season.