NBA Team Tiers 2013-2013: Tier IV

In a previous post, I outlined six NBA regular season Team Tiers ranging from title contenders to outright disasters. In this series, I will predict which teams fit into each tier for the 2013-2014 season, starting from the bottom up. As always, teams within this Tier are presented in no particular order.

Tier IV (30-40 wins): Not awful

Los Angeles Lakers

Pau, Kobe, and Nash. With those superstars healthy, the Lakers would be competitive most nights and would be a lock for the playoffs. Two big problems of course: the rest of the roster is a terrible mess, and it is unreasonable to expect a high level of fitness out of those core star players. Kobe suffered a ruptured Achilles, probably the most debilitating injury an athlete can have (excluding those involving the nervous system). He claims the rehab is going well, but I will believe it when I see it. Historically, basketball players with this injury have not ever returned to full strength, let alone in under a year. On top of that, Nash might be past the point of his career where he is an elite guy because of chronic back and leg problems. Pau is the healthiest of the bunch. He played 49 games last season. I predict a borderline disastrous season for the Lakers resulting in a trip to the lottery for the first time since 2005 (Andrew Bynum).

Boston Celtics

Danny Ainge sent a clear message to Celtic nation with the Garnett/Pierce trade: the past is great, the future isn't here yet. While rebuilding around Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, and head coach / savant Brad Stevens is a nice place to start, the talent level on this year's squad isn't nearly high enough to seriously compete for the playoffs. By putting them in Tier IV, I am assuming that Rondo plays (and plays well) for at least 50 games or so. He's good enough to drag a team out of the cellar by himself. If he doesn't come back to his old form, they will sink even lower.

Charlotte Bobcats

The Bobcats went out and signed Al Jefferson to a nice fat contract because they are tired of being a doormat. With solid, underrated young guards in Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson and some development from defensive ace Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, this team should be able to compete night in night out. Unless 4th overall pick Cody Zeller vastly outperforms expectations however, it's doubtful they can compete for a playoff spot in the East.

NBA Team Tiers 2013-2014: Tier V

In a previous post, I outlined six NBA regular season Team Tiers ranging from title contenders to outright disasters. In this series, I will predict which teams fit into each tier for the 2013-2014 season, starting from the bottom up. As always, teams within this Tier are presented in no particular order.

Tier V (20-29 wins): Lottery-bound

Sacramento Kings

The Kings recently had a change in ownership (finally!), and should be back on the road to respectability. But it's going to take some time. DeMarcus Cousins is so talented, they'll have a hard time losing as many games as the Tier VI teams, but it's hard to imagine this roster striking a good balance of offense and defense. Their guards are all essentially one-way players (Grievis Vasquez, Isaiah Thomas, Jimmer, Marcus Thornton), with the possible exception of Ben McLemore. But he's a rookie, so don't expect great shakes from him defensively. At the forward, they have the very limited players. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (8-clap!) is a terrific defender who can't score and Jason Thompsons is a decent rebounder and scorer around the bucket but can't generate his own offense or defend the paint. All told, I think they will perform reasonably well at home and beat some good teams now and then, but will struggle with consistency.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks surprisingly traded their best player, point guard Brandon Jennings, for Brandon Knight, best know for being dunked on. Knight will share the backcourt with free agent acquisition OJ Mayo and Luke Ridnour, an odd match to say the least. They don't have the personnel to defend guards and wings, and I'm guessing that might be a problem in a division with Derrick Rose, Paul George and Kyrie Irving. Luckily they have defensive ace Larry Sanders to clean up the blown coverages (and Zaza to back him up in case of foul trouble), but they've got no offensive pop in the front line. Unless Ilyasova somehow regains his 2011 form.

Utah Jazz

By letting Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson leave in free agency, the Jazz signaled pretty clearly that they are entering into a new phase for their franchise. But unlike the these other teams, they already have their young nucleus together. Their top 6 guys are Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, Gordon Heyward, Alec Burks, Trey Burke, and Brandon Rush. That's a very talented core that should at least be exciting to watch. However, those guys are all unproven youngsters so it's unlikely they win many games. Plus they have very little depth after taking on salary flotsam (Biedrinds and Richard Jefferson) to get above the salary floor. Expect the Jazz to go into half-time ahead or close on most nights, only go get blown open in the second half by more experienced, deeper teams.

NBA Team Tiers 2013-2014: Tier VI

In a previous post, I outlined six NBA regular season Team Tiers ranging from title contenders to outright disasters. In this series, I will predict which teams fit into each tier for the 2013-2014 season, starting from the bottom up.

Tier VI (fewer than 20 wins): Definitely tanking

Philadelphia 76ers

All the Sixers have done this offseason is watch Andrew Bynum walk (hobble?) away for nothing and trade their most promising young player Jrue Holiday for an injured draft pick. Clearly, this team is hitting the reset button and intends to have a bottom-three record this season. Trading Holiday for Nerlens Noel and a potential late lottery 2014 pick was the right move for the team's future considering the epic strength of the 2014 draft. Plus they've got a valuable veteran in Thad Young as a trade chip. Philly is playing the long game about as well as possible, but I do have a couple nagging problems. First, they really need Evan Turner to be at least an above average starter, something he's not shown he can do for long stretches. Second, they will be starting a rookie point guard who can't shoot in Michael Carter-Williams. I'm worried about these two co-existing and not detracting from each others' development.

Orlando Magic

After pulling a surprisingly good haul out of the Dwightmare fiasco, the Magic are ready to stink again in a very competitive Eastern conference. Similar to the Sixers, this appears to be part of a larger plan to build through young players and the draft. If they can move the contracts of serviceable veterans Jameer Nelson and Aron Afflalo for more young players, draft picks, and cap room, their rebuilding future looks quite bright. Oladipo, Vucevic, Tobias Harris and a top 5 pick in next year's draft is an exciting young core with plenty of room to grow.

Phoenix Suns

I'm not sure the Suns have their future mapped out as well as the teams above. In theory they have a young point guard and center combo to build around, but it's unclear if Bledsoe is good enough at either end in the half court or if Alex Len can play at the NBA level at all (the stress fracture in his foot is a gigantic red flag, mythical training staff be damned). Whereas any top 5 pick in the draft will serve the above teams quite well, the Suns really need a top 2 pick next year to turn things around. Though they'll certainly do their best, no amount of losing can guarantee a top 2 pick.

NBA Regular Season 2013/14 Preview: Defining Team Tiers

As we've seen with the draft, the process of defining tiers and binning prospects into them has become a valuable tool in setting expectations and making predictions. A similar approach can be taken to bin entire teams ahead of the season. While exact final win totals can easily be pushed a few games in one direction or another by common chance events (minor injuries, shaky refereeing, unlikely buzzer-beaters, missed foul shots etc.), the over quality of a team is relatively more predictable. Before we start binning teams ahead of the high-drama 2013/2014 NBA season, let's take a post to set up meaningful groups.

Tier I (54+ wins): Contenders

Overwhelmingly, teams that win the NBA Championship win at least 55 games. That's not to say every team that breaks 55 has a realistic shot in any given year, but the history doesn't lie.

Tier II (48-54 wins): Very good playoff teams

Some teams are, barring injury, practically assured to make the playoffs based on their talent level and past performance. As per usual, context is everything. For some franchises, like the Clippers or Bobcats, this is a great end to strive towards. For others, like the Lakers or Celtics, this is a brutal midpoint; the hardest stage in championship building is going from good to great.

Tier III (41-47 wins): Playoff bubble teams

These teams have a realistic shot at making the postseason, but would be heavily favored to lose in the first round. Often, this tier has a fair number more teams than playoff slots available, meaning that this type of analysis will not formally attempt to predict which teams will grab the 7 and 8 spots. Rather, it admits and accepts the fact that chance plays more of a role than team quality at this level.

Tier IV (30-40 wins): Not awful

Typically either propped up by a single excellent player or by talented young players who don't yet have their talents honed, some teams fight tough and win a bunch of home games but don't have true playoff aspirations.

Tier V (20-29 wins): Lottery-bound

Some teams are just not good.

Tier VI (fewer than 20 wins): Definitely tanking

This doesn't happen every year, as 2012/13 showed. The team with the worst record last season was the Magic with 20.