The Case for Expansion

So it looks like the Sacramento Kings are staying put for the near future, much to the continued chagrin of Seattle's strong hoops community. Some have suggested a team like the Pacers, Bucks, Wolves, or Bobcats should move up to the Pacific Northwest, but there's no reason to think those cities would want to lose their team any more than Sac-town.

The only other way to resurrect the Sonics is expansion. There are some important considerations to think through, but I think the case for NBA expansion is stronger than most people realize.

Money

It's got to start here. NBA owners are notoriously penurious as a group, so any expansion would have to end up a financial plus for them. The common argument against expansion is that it "splits the pie" one more time. This is absolutely true, but it also assumes that the size of the pie is a constant. If the new team is a success, the pie will be bigger, period. A new Sonics team would be hugely popular, and draw in new customers to increase the dreaded BRI ("basketball related income"). 

With a local population of over 600,000, Seattle has a whole bunch of eyeballs and torsos to fill with broadcasts and jerseys. The short-term gains of a relocation might be nice (basically each owner gets a huge relocation fee check from the moving team), but the long-term win of one more successful team far outweighs the short-term pie-slicing problem. 

Talent 

The league is in a great place right now in terms of talent depth. Some of the worst teams in 2013 - Orlando, Minnesota, Portland, Cleveland, New Orleans and Washington all come to mind - have bright futures, suffering so many losses this season due to injuries and/or deliberate rebuilding. The only truly awful teams are the Bobcats and Suns, who have simply been mismanaged.

The kicker is the 2014 draft, which may be one of the greatest of all time, according to Chad Ford (Insider subscription required). In addition to a ridiculously loaded incoming freshman, a number of top prospects decided to go back to college this year. There could be as many is 6 players in the 2014 draft who would go no lower than #2 overall in the 2013 draft.

Another likely influx of talent comes from across the Pacific. Yao Ming was drafted #1 overall in 2002. Soon after, basketball started gaining in popularity in China. Now, basketball is a legitimate national passion and their basketball academy is growing into a real thing. Kids who grew up in the age of Yao will start to turn 19 (a.k.a. NBA draft eligible) within the next few years, and if you think that a country of 1.3 billion people can't start producing one or two high quality basketball players per year, you are coo-coo-bananas. In case you are worried about height amongst individuals of Asian heritage, I can tell that there are at least as many, if not more 6'2" and above dudes in China than America. Trust me, I'm a geneticist.

Add that to the handful of European and African prospects every year, as well as a growing US population, and you should see a trend towards more and more high quality players entering the league each year. 

Balance

Having an odd number of teams is potentially awkward, particularly for playoff seeding. There are a couple ways to combat this problem. The first is to dispense with conference distinctions and simply have the top 16 teams make the playoffs. This has become an increasingly difficult idea to argue against, particularly with situations like this year when Utah won 5 more games than Milwaukee but the Bucks got a playoff spot and the Jazz did not.

There are scheduling issues to consider for the regular season, but nothing so terrible it can't be resolved with a quick computer script. Also remember that Chicago is 200 miles closer to Portland than Memphis is, but Memphis is in the Western Conference. Geography just isn't a serious problem in the modern game.

The other solution is to expand with two teams. Kansas City has a beautiful arena ready to go. San Diego is the 8th most populous US city at 1.3 million, but hasn't had a team since the 80s. Heck, Virginia Beach and Anaheim made pretty strong runs at the Kings this year. Vancouver looms large as a false-start that should have worked. Or maybe it's time to toss a team across the pond. The London Knights playing long home-stands at the O2 arena? I think a few blokes might show up. Basically, I highly doubt the league would have any trouble sparking a bidding war for a second new franchise.

Conclusions

The NBA should expand to Seattle and probably one other city as soon as possible. The owners will make more money in the long term and basketball fans in two more cities will have colors to wear and great players to cheer for. Plus, 32 is a really nice round number: 16 playoff teams, 16 lottery teams.

Pre-Lottery Team Previews: Orlando Magic

2012-13 Season Review

The year after. The 2011-12 campaign was a horrible slog, marred by the incessant waffling of Dwight Howard and constant friction between coaching, management, and players. It was so bad that the downgrade from a playoff team last year to dead last in the NBA this year comes as a relief to beleaguered Magic fans.

There is definitely reason for optimism now though, beyond the high lottery pick they've "earned" this draft. First off, the team appears to be in excellent hands with young new GM Rob Hennigan. His extremely strong C.V. (4 years each with the Spurs and Thunder) and first-hand basketball IQ (crushed it at D3 Emerson College and was an academic All-American) inspire confidence, and his first year on the job seems to validate his credentials.

As for the on-court product, the Magic as a team were fairly terrible. Though near the bottom of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency, they weren't historically bad or anything. But reading between the lines, 2013 has been an exciting year for player development in Orlando. They brought in a number of young guys who pretty much all played well and showed signs of being useful players. Their development will play a key role going forward.

Team Strengths

Nikola Vucevic had some monster games this year. Who holds the Magic record for most rebounds in a game? It's not Shaq, it's not Dwight, it's the 22 year-old Montenegran from USC with 29 (and 20 points that night). He's a rebounding machine with good touch around the rim and out to 18 feet. At 7'0", he can play either big man position and really solidifies this team's front court moving forward.

Three young guys - Mo Harkless, Andrew Nicholson, and Tobias Harris - all took off under expanded roles as the season progressed. It will be a major test of coach Jaque Vaughn's abilities to develop these guys. None look like future All-Stars, but definitely rotation guys.

Aaron Afflalo was hurt for much of the year, but is a solid defender when he wants to be and does enough on offense to justify a starting position. He really needs to get back to being a lock-down guy and stop trying to be a primary offensive weapon.

Team Weaknesses

Youth and lack of star power. Many of their rotation guys are too young to win consistently, as evidenced by strong individual and poor team success this campaign. Nobody on this team looks like an All-Star, but the supporting cast is really strong if they actually had anyone to support. They also lack a lead guard of the future, as Jameer Nelson appears to be at the end of his prime.

If they win the lottery...

... they probably won't over-think things too much. Pair Nerlens Noel with Vucevic and you might have a dynamite front line. Similar to the Bobcats, the Magic are taking the long view and wouldn't mind being terrible again next year. 

If they don't win the lottery...

... Orlando will most likely have a pick between 2-4. They are likely disappointed that Marcus Smart went back to school, as he would have been a high priority prospect for them. Of the guys remaining, a few possibilities stand out:

Anthony Bennett (PF, University of Nevada Las Vegas) could be a #1 scoring option for this team. Similar to Nicholson but better across the board, he is an agressive scorer from all over the court.

Victor Olidapo (SG, Indiana University) has the leadership and other intangibles everyone is looking for these days. He and Afflalo have similar games, but he'd be a strong upgrade.

Trey Burke (PG, University of Michigan) showed the whole country what elite leadership looks like during the NCAAs this year. Unfortunately, his lack of size and propensity for taking crazy tough shots are a bit of a turn-off. The Magic really do crave a lead guard though, and may pull the trigger with a top pick.

Dark Horse Alert: Alex Len (C, University of Maryland) is a skilled big guy who played on a bad team in college. He had ups and downs, but it's hard to know whether that came from him or his teammates. I don't love the fit with any of the top-5 guys, so I wouldn't be shocked to see a reach here.

Pre-Lottery Team Previews: Charlotte Bobcats

2012-13 Season Review

The Charlotte Bobcats were legendarily bad this year. Again. After starting a surprisingly competent 7-5, they swooned hard and will end up winning around 20 games for the whole season. According to ESPN's "Hollinger Team Statistics", they are going to finish dead last (or within the margin of error of dead last) in both offensive, defensive efficiency, and rebounding. 

Team Strengths

Kemba Walker's sophomore improvement got buried a bit by the team's overall terribleness. He is a tough lead guard who is active attacking the hoop. He doesn't draw enough fouls and he doesn't shoot well from outside, but he improved 5 points on his embarassing rookie year TS% (46.4 to a still barely acceptable  51.3). At 22, he should get better in these areas and is an above average defender by today's PG standards.

Michael Kidd Gilchrist, last year's #2 overall pick, still has great potential despite and up and down rookie year. His PER of 14 (slightly below average) is acceptable given that he is already an elite defensive player. 

Team Weaknesses

With no scoring presence inside nor anyone to protect the rim, the Bobcats constantly lose the battle for easy baskets. Also, they are a terrible 3-point shooting team. Also they give up more made threes than anyone else per game. In a typical Bobcats game, the opponent makes about 3 more threes than they do. It's an awful mess out there.

If they win the lottery...

...Charlotte would almost certainly select Nerlens Noel with the #1 overall pick should they land it. They don't mind if he has to sit out his rookie season while they stink it up for next year's loaded lottery.

If they don't win the lottery...

... they will still have a pick no worse than 4th overall. Assuming Noel is off the board, that means they'll have to narrow it down to three guys.

Ben McLemore would be a nice option for the Bobcats; he would instantly be the team's most dangerous perimeter shooting option. One gets the sense that Kemba isn't an unwilling passer, just that he's never had anyone to pass to (including at UConn). Offensively, these two could make a nice pair.

Anthony Bennett would be the team's best big man, especially offensively. A little two-man game with Walker and Bennett could be effective.

Victor Oladipo fits in with the culture the Bobcats are apparently trying to build: super hardworking, competitive, high character players with elite athleticism. He's not the shooter or scorer that McLemore is, but Oladipo and MKG defending on the wings would be terrifying for opponents. Without anyone to defend the paint, they'd still give up a ton of points, but they may be able to play a manic uptempo game keyed by excessive ball-pressure on defense.