His first five tiers include 28 players, meaning that the Chicago Bulls (selecting #28 & #30 overall) have a 100% chance of getting at worst one top-five Tier player, and very possibly one more should someone slip. Here is my take on how the thirteen players in tier 5 rank for Chicago's needs:
1. Marshon Brooks
The 6'5" shooting guard from Providence might end up being drafted in the lottery. That shouldn't be a huge surprise, given that he is an elite athlete with great size for his position and that he was the second leading scorer in college hoops last year. The biggest knock on him is his age (22), which would actually be a plus for the Bulls, who are solidly in "win now" mode. This is the type of player Chicago would love to add to their backcourt. He is a solid if unspectacular outside shooter, but he draws lots of contact: in college, he more foul shots than 3pt-ers. Basically, there is very little chance he slides all the way down to #28. The Bulls will have to trade up to try and get him. Note here: ESPN's John Hollinger's Draft Rater is highly skeptical of Brooks, attributing his high scoring to playing a high volume of minutes against poor competition.
2. Donatas Motiejunas
Once considered a top-10 pick, the 7-foot forward has slipped over the past six months. It's mostly due to the fact that the other Euro forwards in this draft are better athletes. But 7-footers who can shoot are rare. Even if he's more Bargnani than Nowitzki, he'd be a bargain so late in the draft.
3. Jordan Hamilton
He's a very talented scorer, finding points all over the floor. This is another player who's number one skill is finding his own shot, something the Bulls needed in the playoffs against Miami.
4. Tobias Harris
He's young, deft with the ball, and smart at both ends. Harris is definitely a project, one of the youngest players in this year's draft (turns 19 on July 15), but he's got the type of playmaking skills the Bulls want. He is a hybrid forward, so Coach Thibs would probably have some trouble finding minutes for him in the beginning, but if he fell to #28 he'd be to good a prospect to pass up.
5. Davis Bertans
This is the first player on this list who is likely to be on the board when the Bulls select. He's a bit of a mystery, another 7-foot European forward with outside shooting prowess. Beyond that? Who really knows? The reason I have him so high is that there are rumors going around that the Spurs plan to take him at #29, and they have a quite a history of finding hidden gems at the end of the first round (Manu, Parker, and George Hill chief among them). It's like cheating off the smart kids paper, except it's ok!
6. Tyler Honeycutt
This one's personal. I live within a mile of Pauley Pavilion, and have been a big UCLA fan since I started working there in 2004. I've been lucky enough to see coach Howland navigate the team to three Final Fours and get previews of some terrific NBA players. Kevin Love, Russel Westbrook, Aron Afflalo, Jordan Farmar, Darren Collison, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Jrue Holiday... all of these guys (with the exception of Holiday, who was rather unremarkable in his one season) looked like great prospects to me. For the most part, they have been way above the curve as pros. Though he was injured a few times in his two seasons for the Bruins, Honeycutt passed the eye test in a major way. His basketball IQ is phenomenal, which helps him do the little things well: passing, boxing out, etc. He also has good athleticism and shooting range. I think he could be a great addition to the Bulls, logging minutes at both wing spots off the bench or starting at shooting guard.
7. Nikola Mirotic
If you can't tell, I think the Bull's best option is to pick a young European and let him play overseas for a couple years. If he pans out, you get an impact player on a rookie salary. If he flat out stinks, you aren't stuck with his salary against your cap. Mirotic appears to be in the classic finesse forward mold and will be in the Euroleague for at least one or two more years. If he's half the player Toni Kucoc was, this would be a good pick.
8. Kenneth Faried
This guy is a rebounding monster. He dragged a pretty bad team to the NCAA tournament and helped them upset Louisville in the first round. That's impressive when a player does it offensively, but he was doing it purely on the glass. It was crazy fun to see rebounding used as a weapon, much like Rodman used to do.
Here the remaining players in this tier:
Josh Selby (PG)
Reggie Jackson (PG)
Darius Morris (PG)
Nikola Vucevic (F)
Markeiff Morris (F)
All three poing guards on that list are unlikely to be better than CJ Watson, so I don't see the appeal of drafting any of them. Vucevic has some potential as a stretch four, but I don't see giving him minutes over Taj. Markeiff Morris is similar in many ways to James Johnson, a player the Bulls had no use for.
Here are seven players I would rather the Bulls pick, with a quick rationale:
Malcolm Lee (defense, UCLA pedigree); Nolan Smith (defense, Duke pedigree); Jeremy Tyler (freak athlete, lottery talent?); Justin Harper (size, outside shooting); Chandler Parsons (versatility, team focused); Norris Cole (all-around talent, good trade chip?); Jon Leuer (size, shooting, Omer's broken leg)
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