NBA Draft 2013: Top 5 Comps

Comparing prospects to past or present players is a fun way for analysts and fans of many sports to put potential draftees into context. The problem of course is that no two players are alike. If you need proof, look no further than the several sets of identical twins in the history of the NBA (most recently the Morris and Collins twins): none of them seem to have the same game as their genetic clone.

For this article, I'm going to take a look at five of the top prospects in this draft and find an NBA All-Star who, as a rookie or prospect, shares significant similarities in physique, skills, and weaknesses with the likely top 6. The goal is to contextualize the players' ceilings. Let's roll:

Nerlens Noel <=> Tyson Chandler

Physique: Skinny seven footers, long and athletic
Skills: Shot-blocking
Weakness: Offense
Wildcard: The jersey number 3

Chandler came into the league as a confused high schooler who wanted to be the next Kevin Garnett. That never happened, but he eventually turned into the defensive anchor for the NBA champion Mavs and was named to his first All-Star game in 2013. Noel has that potential defensively, and if he can learn to set good screens and crash the hoop for lobs and offensive rebounds, he could be an All-Star too some day.

Ben McLemore <=> Ray Allen

Physique: Prototypical 2-guards

Skills: Shooting, finishing in transition

Weakness: Defense

Wildcard: Ray Allen, movie star. Ben McLemore, famous rapper (wait, is it the same Macklemore??)

This comparison gets thrown around often because Allen is a near idealization of his position. Superstars are rarely among the great shooters, but Allen and Reggie Miller (also pictured above) stand out. If McLemore plays on a team that gets him open jumpers and he attacks the basket relentlessly, he has great potential.

Anthony Bennett <=> Larry Johnson 

Physique: Strong and quick but undersized power forwards

Skills: Inside/outside power game with shooting range

Weakness: Size

Wildcard: Both are UNLV Runnin' Reb's!

Technically Grandmama never made an All-Star game, but it's an outright travesty that he wasn't on the 92-93 team (Kevin Willis and the immortal Michael Adams were selected as injury replacements for the Eastern Conference, with LJ at home in Charlotte averaging a 22/10... oops!). He enjoyed a long and memorable career because of his incredible knack for scoring and his willingness to bully opponents into the paint. Bennett can do those things and if he, like LJ, can overcome his relatively short stature he's got a bright future.

Otto Porter <=> Danny Granger

Physique: Tall and long small forwards

Skills: Shooting

Weakness: Average athleticism

Wildcard: Hermione Granger's best friend is Harry Porter. Or is it Potter? 

Granger fell to Indiana in the late lottery before making the 2009 All-Star team. His success is due in large part to his ability to get his very effective mid-range shot off over shorter defenders. Porter did exactly the same thing at Georgetown.

Victor Olidapo <=> Dwyane Wade

Physique: Compact, high-flying 2-guards

Skills: Attacking the basket, off-the-charts intangibles

Weakness: Outside shooting

Wildcard: Both probably won "Most likely to have their name misspelled" in their HS yearbook

Wade was more under the radar at Marquette than Olidapo was at Indiana, but exhibited similarly explosive leaping ability and a presence of character that made Pat Riley believe he could be a star. Olidapo has that buzz around him after an out-of-nowhere amazing year at IU. 

NOTE: All images found via Google Image search and are copyright of their respective owners.

2013 NBA Mock Draft v1

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

Anthony Bennett | PF | 6'8" | 240lbs | 20 years | University of Las Vegas Nevada

This is an unconventional pick, but bear with me; there's some logic behind it. First, though it seems Cleveland would love to trade down or out of this draft, the market for presumptive #1 overall prospect Nerlens Noel is luke-warm at best. Next, the Cavs want to start winning some games next season, not just a lottery slot. Also consider that in the past two drafts they have made very unusual picks in the top 5; few teams would have taken either Tristan Thompson or Dion Waiters as high as fourth overall. I think GM Chris Grant will find it difficult to tease apart the top five prospects and end up picking the one who has the best combination of star-potential and fit. I think Bennett's ability to stretch the floor and his elite athleticism will pair very well with Thompson in the front court.

2. Orlando Magic

Nerlens Noel | C | 7'0" | 206lbs | 19 years | University of Kentucky

Any scenario in which Noel falls to Orlando is a windfall for them. They will try to talk themselves into Trey Burke as the point guard of their future, but would be relived to find an ultra-athletic shot-blocker at pick two. They are much happier waiting another year (at least) to be competitive, so Noel's injury and weight issues are less problematic for them. 

3. Washington Wizards

Otto Porter | SF | 6'9" | 198lbs | 19 years | Georgetown University

With the dynamite backcourt of Wall and Beal, Porter appears to be a terrific fit in Washington. He will likely be able to guard multiple positions on the floor, and will benefit from plenty of open jumpers with all the attention on the guards. 

4. Charlotte Bobcats

Ben McLemore | SG | 6'5" | 189 lbs | 20 years | Kansas University

The Bobcats need some pop in their offense, and McLemore has the shooting ability and physique to be a very effective offensive player.

5. Phoenix Suns

Victor Oladipo | SG | 6'4" | 213lbs | 21 years | Indiana University

The Suns would probably be thrilled to find Oladipo available. Their team needs a major culture change, and Oladipo's contagious competitive fire is exactly what the doctor ordered.

6. New Orleans Pelicans

Trey Burke | PG | 6'1" | 187lbs | 20 years | University of Michigan

Austin Rivers was a disaster last year, and even if he improves dramatically his ceiling is probably as a back-up. Burke can learn the game behind the greatly improved Greivus Vasquez and grow along with last year's #1 overall Anthony Davis.

7. Sacramento Kings

Alex Len | C | 7'1" | 225lbs | 19 years | University of Maryland

With new ownership and an as yet unfilled GM seat, it's hard to peg where the Kings will go with this pick. Len is a good fit because he has the size, skill, and lack of selfishness to play along side mercurial big man DeMarcus Cousins. He is a good value at this point in the draft.

8. Detroit Pistons

Michael Carter-Williams | PG | 6'6" | 184lbs | 21 years | Syracuse University

With nearly $19M tied up in essentially useless players (Villanueva, Stuckey, Kravtsov), the Pistons aren't going anywhere in 2013/14. However, they've got two terrific young bigs in Monroe and Drummond. I think they will be deciding between Carter-Williams and CJ McCollum here, and GMs love to pick the guy who's taller and played for a better college team. Also, he's more of a true point guard, as opposed to McCollum who plays a similar game to other combo guards on the Pistons.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

CJ McCollum | PG/SG | 6'3" | 197lbs | 21 years | Lehigh University

Despite the lack of strong competition at mid-major Lehigh - or possibly because of it - McCollum has some serious Damien Lillard buzz around him. He projects as a dynamic scoring lead guard, and given Ricky Rubio's extraordinary defensive abilities and passing, the two could pair well.

10. Portland Trailblazers

Steven Adams | C | 7'0" | 255lbs | 19 years | University of Pittsburgh

Adams impressed greatly at the combine, displaying his obvious size and athletic prowess as well as sound jumpshot mechanics. He can already do most of what JJ Hickson did so well last season next to Lamarcus Aldridge, but is cheaper and younger.

11. Philadelphia 76ers

Cody Zeller | C/F | 7'0" | 230lbs | 20 years | Indiana University

Bynum or no, the 76ers lack size. Zeller is a skilled and tough inside player who should be able to contribute right away.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

Shabazz Muhammad | G/F | 6'6" | 222lbs | 20 years | University of California Los Angeles

This pick is a luxury for the already dangerous Thunder. They have the culture and talent in place to help Shabazz overcome his immaturity and begin to realize his potential. They've already had some success drafting guards from my employer, UCLA (Go Bruins!).

13. Dallas Mavericks

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | SG | 6'6" | 204lbs | 20 years | University of Georgia

The Mavs have a very clean sheet after Dirk and Shawn Marion, and are rumored to be shopping this pick in an attempt to get enough under the cap to sign a marquee free agent like Dwight Howard or Chris Paul. Although he played for a bad team in college, Caldwell-Pope has ideal size, athleticism, and scoring ability for a shooting guard and represents good value in the late lottery.

14. Utah Jazz

Dario Saric | SF | 6'10" | 223lbs | 19 years | Croatia

The Jazz continue to be imbalanced and uncertain going forward. They really need a point guard, but are better off collecting assets and trying to trade for one rather than reaching on a non-lottery talent here. Saric can play some point forward because of his high level basketball IQ and court vision, so the Jazz can use him as a secondary ball-handler.

15. Milwaukee Bucks

Kelly Olynyk | PF | 7'0" | 234lbs | 22 years | Gonzaga University

The only sure thing in then Bucks' future is LARRY SANDERS! anchoring the defense. Everything Sanders does well, Olynyk doesn't, and vice versa. Olynyk lead the NCAAs in player efficiency (via 2012-13 Hollinger ratings) mainly due to his insane field goal percentage (63% from the floor!) and ability to earn and make free throws (made 4/5 per game on average). 

16. Boston Celtics

Mason Plumlee | C | 7'0" | 238lbs | 23 years | Duke University

By now, most sophisticated NBA fans know how rough it is for the Celtics when KG is on the bench; their lack of depth up front has really hurt them. Plumlee does many things well, and is a little older so he should be physically mature enough to handle the NBA game right away. Also, he spent 4 years learning from Coach K, so Doc can assume a pretty high level of maturity and professionalism. 

17 and 18. Atlanta Hawks

Jamaal Franklin | SG/SF | 6'5" | 191lbs | 21 years | San Diego State University
Rudy Gobert | 7'2" | 238lbs | 20 years | France

With a projected starters Jeff Teague and Lou Williams, Atlanta could use Franklin's defense, toughness, and rebounding at the third guard spot. He has the potential to become a starter if he can develop a three point shot. With their second pick, the Hawks can swing for the fences with Gobert, the player with the longest measured standing reach in NBA draft history. Whether or not he can actually play basketball is a story for another day.

19. Cleveland Cavaliers

Reggie Bullock | SF | 6'7" | 200lbs | 22 years | University of North Carolina

I've gone with another unconventional pick for the Cavs, but they are absolutely desperate for wing players. Bullock put up decent numbers against top competition in the ACC. He can shoot and rebound, and is big enough to guard NBA small forwards. Plus he's a Tarheel, just like one that got away (Danny Green).

20. Chicago Bulls

Jeff Withey | C | 7'0" | 222lbs | 23 years | Kansas University

Chicago needs shooters and improved frontcourt depth, and would prefer an older, more NBA-ready player. Withey was very efficient at Kansas, and while he doesn't wow with lottery-type potential, he could turn out to be a very solid fourth big for Chicago.

21. Utah Jazz

Dennis Schroeder | PG | 6'2" | 165lbs | 19 years | Germany

If they don't pick a PG with the 14th pick, it is likely they'll take one here. Schoroeder is a high risk/reward prospect, the kind of player worth gambling an "extra" first rounder on.

22. Brooklyn Nets

Tony Mitchell | SF | 6'8" | 220lbs | 21 years | University of North Texas

Gerald Wallace's steep decline really hurt the Nets this year, and was a major reason why they couldn't advance past a depleted Bulls team in round 1. Mitchell is a similar type of player, but has much younger legs.

23. Indiana Pacers

Shane Larkin | PG | 6'0" | 171lbs | 20 years | University of Miami 

The Pacers are currently having their most successful season since a run to the Finals against the Lakers over a decade ago. The one glaring weakness of this team is the weak bench, partly due to Danny Granger's injuries. Larkin projects as a terrific "microwave" guard, and could give them a Nate Robinson style punch in the second unit. I love this fit.

24. New York Knicks

Sergey Karasev | SG | 6'7" | 197lbs | 19 years | Russia

Karasev is a good fit for the "Carmelo plus four shooters" formula that lead to so much early-season success for the 2012-13 Knicks.

25. Los Angeles Clippers

Gorgui Dieng | C | 6'11" | 230lbs. | 23 years | University of Louisville

Dieng committed fewer than one foul per 10 minutes and hit about two thirds of his free throws while providing excellent interior defense for the NCAA champion Cardinals. If he can do all that for 18 minutes per night for the Clippers, this pick could really help round out their team.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves

Allen Crabbe | SG | 6'6" | 197lbs | 21 years | University of California Berkeley

Shooting. And some more shooting. The Wolves could use both, and Crabbe is lethal from distance. 

27. Denver Nuggets

Lucas Nogueira | C | 6'11" | 218lbs | 20 years | Brazil

The Nuggets are a deep team right now, and probably won't have space in their rotation for whomever they draft here. Nogueira is a great long-term asset for them.

28. San Antonio Spurs

Alex Abrines | SG | 6'5" | 195lbs | 20 years | Spain

Congrats to the champions of the Western Conference! You know the Spurs will pick someone off the radar here. The basics about Abrines (athletic slasher, good shooter) sound just like a young Manu...

29. Oklahoma City Thunder

Giannis Antetokounmpo | SF | 6'9" | 218lbs | 19 years | Greece

This pick has "Euro stash" written all over it, and Giannis is a likely suspect.

30. Phoenix Suns

Glenn Rice Jr. | SG | 6'6" | 211lbs | 22 years | NBDL

The Suns need talent all over the court, and Rice Jr. has plenty. He might have a chance to play some minutes next year for them.

Pre-Lottery Team Previews: Phoenix Suns

The final team with a >10% chance at winning the lottery (tomorrow, May 21st) is the Phoenix Suns.

2012-2013 Season Review

Record: 25-57

Scoring Margin: -6.48 (28th)

The Suns were a hot mess this past season. Based on points per 100 possessions  they were the second worst offense, "bested" by only the disastrous Wizards. At least DC was a top 10 defense, poor Phoenix was in the bottom third defensively as well. 

Team Strengths

Free agent point guard Goran Dragic was good (PER 17.5), but certainly not good enough to be a franchise player. He's a good scorer and distributor, but only shot 32% from distance.

Marcin Gortat is a decent rim protector and does a good job on the boards and scoring on putbacks. Louis Scola is a highly skilled big who struggles to guard his position. Jared Dudley is a terrific glue guy but fairly useless on a team this bad.

Looking ahead, they'll potentially have decent cap space in the summer of 2014.

Team Weaknesses

Direction. In this post-Nash era, nobody knows where they Suns are going. Certainly not their players and coaches. Establishing a winning culture and attitude is paramount here. Interim head coach Lindsay Hunter is a well respected veteran player, but his chops as a coach are as yet unknown. Can he turn this thing around? 

If they win the lottery...

If this section feels repetitive across teams, that's because it is. The Suns won't be good any time soon so Nerlens Noel is the type of long-term prospect they could start to build off.

If they don't win the lottery...

They will likely have a top 6 pick.

Ben McLemore will probably get a long look even at #1 for them. Michael Beasley failed terribly as a primary scoring option last season, and McLemore would be an instant upgrade.

Anthony Bennett could do a lot worse than learning the ins and outs of the power forward position from Louis Scola. If he can add a few tricks from the offensively crafty Argentinean to his athletic frame, he could be dangerous.

Victor Oladipo has the type of winning character, toughness, athleticism, and defensive willingness that coach Hunter is craving. He wouldn't provide the offensive punch they need right now, but Oladipo might be the best pick to help change the team culture.

Otto Porter has so much talent, if the guys above are off the board he's a no-brainer as an asset moving forward.

Alex Len is the seven-footer du jour and could be a nice long-term project.

Dark Horse Alert

If they decide that Dragic isn't the answer at PG, they might consider drafting Trey Burke and try to trade The Dragon. His contract is semi-palatable for an above-average starter (3 years $22.5M).

A New Big for the Bulls

The San Antonio Spurs plotted an amazing course to its 3 post-David Robinson championships. With late draft picks in Tony Parker (2001, 28th overall) and Manu Ginobili (1999, 57th overall), they landed Hall of Fame players to complement their franchise #1 overall Tim Duncan. They've also plucked out an amazing range of players in the late first or second round, including: Louis Scola, Leandro Barbosa, Benoh Udrih, George Hill, DeJuan Blair, Tiago Splitter, and others. That amazing knack for picking up assets has a lot to do with how they've been able to remain contenters for the entirety of Duncan's career.

The Chicago Bulls clearly want to follow this mold, and have had some success in the Thibodeau era. Recent picks Taj Gibson, Omer Asik, and Jimmy Butler have all turned out to be terrific pros. Two more in the pipeline, rookie Marquis Teague and Real Madrid's starting power forward Nikola Mirotic are young guys with great talent. 

This season the Bulls own the 20th overall pick and, due to the a managerial error of not matching Houston's offer for Asik, lack a young big man to develop. There are some interesting options for the Bulls to explore, as this is a draft deep in potential rotation players. One luxury of being a further along team like Chicago is that age isn't as big a factor. Some players might scare off lottery teams by being 22 or 23 years old, but the Bulls can afford to take lower-ceiling players who are ready now.

Probably won't be there:

There are three guys who will likely hear their name called early on draft night, but have enough uncertainty surrounding them to make a fall out of the top 20 a slim but real possibility.

Kelly Olynyk (22 years, 7'0", Gonzaga University) is a mobile, long-haired scoring big man with agility and range. Offensively, he was lights out for the Bulldogs, posting a massive PER (36.6). He isn't yet known as a rim protector, but has the athleticism and size to excel in that role. It would be a shock if he slipped too far into the teens, let alone #20.

Gorgui Dieng (?? years, 6'11", Louisville University) wowed the whole country with his strong defensive play in the NCAA tournament. He has amazing length and moves really well. His age is a question, (probably 23 years old) so his lack of skill on offense will scare away lottery teams. He might be a steal though in the mid-late teens.

Rudy Gobert (20 years, 7'1", France) is a long lean athlete who's range as a prospect is nearly as long as his arms. He might not be good enough to play professional basketball in the US, or he might develop into an All Star. A classic project, but someone will gamble on him.

More realistic:

These three players suffer from a Goldilocks problem: we've either seen too much of them, or too little. Each deserves to be a first round pick, and most scenarios have at least one of them available at 20 overall.

Mason Plumlee (23 years, 6'10", Duke University), younger brother of Indiana Pacer benchwarmer Miles, played four solid years for Coach K where he demonstrated good athleticism, a strong basketball IQ, and a reliable mid-range jumper. Not a terrifically exciting player on paper, but a very useful one.

Steven Adams (19 years, 7'0", University of Pittsburgh) has size and youth to spare. He plays hard and has a ton of potential. It is unclear if he will ever build up the skill to be more than an end of the bench guy.

Jeff Withey (23 years, 7'0", Kansas University) is another solid senior from a great program who isn't getting much hype. He figures to be a plus defender and is confident scoring near the basket, a nice combination for Coach Thibs and company to play with.

Dark Horse:

The dropoff is pretty significant after those first six young men. In all likelihood, if all six are off the board the Bulls will take the best player available rather than staunchly stick with picking a big. They may even be able to draft this player with their second round pick (#49 overall).

Lucas Nogueira (20 years, 6'11", Brazil) reminds many of his similarly coiffed countryman Anderson Varejao at this age. Bouncy, energetic, and long, Nogueira has been developing in Spain and could be a steal.

Pre-Lottery Team Previews: Cleveland Cavaliers

2012-13 Season Review

Record: 24-58

Scoring margin: -4.7 (26th overall)

It was a strange season for the Cavs. Injuries aplayed a big role, particularly an early season-ending medical scare for outstanding center Anderson Varejao (blood clot in the lung, nothing to be taken lightly) and some nagging issues with budding (budded?) superstar Kyrie Irving. Youth and lack of depth on the wings also submarined any chances at a playoff appearance, but generally the Cavs were a tough out. Head coach Byron Scott was ousted in favor of the man who had his job only three seasons ago, Mike Brown. This appears to signal a divorce from any plans to woo back LeBron, as his relationship with coach Brown is apparently strained (or worse).

Team Strengths

Kyrie Irving was spectacular offensively, albiet in only 59 games. It remains difficult to judge his playmaking ability due to the lack of talent around him, and his defense remains among the worst in the league. But there is no doubt that he is a franchise player. 

Last year's lottery pick at #4 overall, Dion Waiters had an up-and-down rookie year. He was pretty good at getting to the line and managed a decent overall scoring rate, but he was not efficient (41/31/74 shooting splits). Without a reliable outside shot, defenders can play off him and make it difficult to drive. 

Tristan Thompson, another #4 overall pick (2012) showed signs of at least being a rotation player. He proved to be durable, a good rebounder, and good at getting to the line. His FT% improved from 55% to 60%, which is still fairly terrible. If he can push that up into the 70s and continue getting better on defense, he's a pretty valuable player.

Team Weaknesses

It is unclear if Irving and Waiters are a good complement in the backcourt. Waiters may be better served as a career sixth man, but they need him to play big minutes on this team due to lack of wing depth. Varejao's future with the club is uncertain, and he would be difficult to trade because of his complicated health picture. 

If they win the lottery...

... the Cavs will likely take Nerlens Noel. This team is practicing patience and favors long-term growth over quick fixes, so Noel is a great project for them. They can then focus on him and Thompson and their front court of the future and try to build up Varejao's trade value while waiting for Noel to heal up. 

If they don't win the lottery...

... GM Chris Grant will be looking at a top 5 pick. Maybe the third year will be a charm for the fourth overall pick to Cleveland? This draft shakes out well for them, as most of the top prospects are not point guards, the one spot they have set in stone. For the most part, these young men project as complementary players rather than stars, which is not ideal but better for a team like the Cavs who are building up a new foundation.

Anthony Bennett just had shoulder surgery, but should be good to go to start the season. His inside scoring presence would be a welcome addition to this team.

Ben McLemore paired with Irving could be one of the top outside shooting backcourts outside of Golden State. He figures to be a much better complement to Irving than Waiters. His lack of star-level leadership, a negative for most lottery teams, is much less problematic on a team with a clear franchise player already in place.

Otto Porter is a jack-of-all-trades type wing player, and also projects as a complementary guy. The wing situation is so dire on this team, he could be of tremendous value just soaking up minutes and playing defense. Not a super sexy pick, but solid.

Alex Len has size and skill, providing an inside weapon for Irving. Similar to Noel, having Len would allow them to shop Varejao for wing depth or draft picks.

Dark horse alert: Dario Saric (F, Croatia) and Shabazz Mohammed (F, UCLA) are the best wing players after Porter. If Otto is off the board, the Cavs may reach a little for one of these long, athletic scorers. Saric is younger, so he may have the edge.