Welcome to Hell: Denver Nuggets Edition

Take a look at the Denver Nugget's salary cap situation (via HoopsHype.com). Seriously, look at it.

Next season, without including their likely top 10 draft pick (more on that later) or adding anyone in free agency, the Denver Nuggets will have a higher payroll than this season and be well over the salary cap. The salary dump of Professor Andre Miller keeps them under the tax, but after signing their first round draft pick they'll be over $66M in payroll. Oh, and did I mention they're bad at basketball?

Well actually, they're more of a middling basketball team; right in the middle of the league in offensive efficiency and in the bottom third defensively, per ESPN. Their average margin of -2 is certainly not playoff caliber, but it's also not 2011-12 Bobcats awful (-14!!!!). They have one of the league's best point guards in Ty Lawson, who is managing to maintain a high level of play despite having to carry an offense with few other weapons. The Manimal, Kenneth Faried, is the type of role player every team would love to have. Beyond that, the roster is fairly barren.

The problem is, it's hard to see how they get any better. The JaVale McGee contract (>$12M per year for three more seasons) is among the worst in the league and Gallinari's isn't much better (two more years over $11M). Gallo has been hurt on and off for years now, and JaVale was never worth that kind of guaranteed money. Perhaps if both were healthy and performing at their peaks this team would be more dangerous, but there's no reasonable expectation that such scenario will actually occur.

There's a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel, in that they own the New York Knick's 2014 draft pick from the Carmelo trade. Unfortunately, they have to convey their own pick to Orlando (part of the Dwight Howard trade that landed them Iguodala for one year), meaning that in essence this is a pick swap only, and Orlando comes out the real winner. That Knick's pick would be the #9 overall if the season ended today, and is most likely going to fall in the 7-11 range when all is said and done. Without some lottery magic, that's a good pick but not a franchise-changer.

So where do they go from here? Lawson is only 26 years old, just entering his peak. They could try and move him for draft picks, but I doubt they'd get a better player. Rebuilding around him is problematic because of the salary problems, but it can be done if they are committed to bottoming out in the 2014/15 season. Few fans have any idea what the 2015 draft will look like.

Here are some moves which could improve their outlook:

Trade #1:

Celtics receive:
2014 first round draft pick from Knick's ~#9 overall
2014 second round draft pick from Denver ~#43 overall
Danilo Gallinari

Denver receives:
2014 first round draft pick from Hawks/Nets, #17-21 overall
Brandon Bass
Joel Anthony

The salaries match, but Gallo's is one year longer. So in this trade, the Celtics are renting cap space in 2015/16 for the right to get a second pick in the top 10, plus a second rounder as a sweetener. If Gallo gets healthy, he could provide a veteran scoring punch for a very young team. For Denver, they get $10M of cap space cleared for the summer of 2015 and still hold onto a first rounder. Bass is a solid pro and locker room guy, and Anthony would probably be cut. He somehow has a $3.8M player option this summer which he would be insane to decline.

Trade #2:

Oklahoma City receives:
Kenneth Faried

Denver receives:
#21 overall pick (from Dallas)
#29 overall pick (OKC's own)
Hasheem Thabeet

This requires that the Mavs keep up their solid play, as this pick is top 20 protected. But those two picks combined have a similar salary hit to Faried alone in 2014/15, and OKC would much rather have a proven veteran than two more rookies. For Denver, they pick up two "swings" at first rounders for a total of 3 picks in the second half of the draft. Paying Thabeet's final year at $1.2M is the cost of doing business.

The 2014/15 season would be tank-city after these trades; time for coach Brian Shaw to bring in rookies who fit his system (assuming he has one?). In the summer of 2015, they would likely have a top 5 pick and they will be able to decline team options on Wilson Chandler, Timofey Mozgov, and Randy Foye (totaling $15M).

Their entire roster in summer 2015 would come in at around $40M, leaving them about one max contract slot under the cap (currently $58M, probably >$60M by then):

Ty Lawson ($12M)
JaVale McGee ($12M)
Evan Fournier ($2.3M, team can decline option if he doesn't get better)
JJ Hickson ($5.6M, very movable contract)
#17 pick 2014 (~$1.5M)
#21 pick 2014 (~$1M)
#29 pick 2014 (~$1M)
Top 5 pick 2015 ($5M or less)

There's not much chance of a big name star like Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge (both FA's in 2015) signing into that cap space, but OKC and Houston have shown that hoarding cap space and picks can help build a contender quickly. If everything falls just right, they may even be back in the playoffs for the 2015/16 season.

NBA Team Tiers 2013-2013: Tier IV

In a previous post, I outlined six NBA regular season Team Tiers ranging from title contenders to outright disasters. In this series, I will predict which teams fit into each tier for the 2013-2014 season, starting from the bottom up. As always, teams within this Tier are presented in no particular order.

Tier IV (30-40 wins): Not awful

Los Angeles Lakers

Pau, Kobe, and Nash. With those superstars healthy, the Lakers would be competitive most nights and would be a lock for the playoffs. Two big problems of course: the rest of the roster is a terrible mess, and it is unreasonable to expect a high level of fitness out of those core star players. Kobe suffered a ruptured Achilles, probably the most debilitating injury an athlete can have (excluding those involving the nervous system). He claims the rehab is going well, but I will believe it when I see it. Historically, basketball players with this injury have not ever returned to full strength, let alone in under a year. On top of that, Nash might be past the point of his career where he is an elite guy because of chronic back and leg problems. Pau is the healthiest of the bunch. He played 49 games last season. I predict a borderline disastrous season for the Lakers resulting in a trip to the lottery for the first time since 2005 (Andrew Bynum).

Boston Celtics

Danny Ainge sent a clear message to Celtic nation with the Garnett/Pierce trade: the past is great, the future isn't here yet. While rebuilding around Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, and head coach / savant Brad Stevens is a nice place to start, the talent level on this year's squad isn't nearly high enough to seriously compete for the playoffs. By putting them in Tier IV, I am assuming that Rondo plays (and plays well) for at least 50 games or so. He's good enough to drag a team out of the cellar by himself. If he doesn't come back to his old form, they will sink even lower.

Charlotte Bobcats

The Bobcats went out and signed Al Jefferson to a nice fat contract because they are tired of being a doormat. With solid, underrated young guards in Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson and some development from defensive ace Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, this team should be able to compete night in night out. Unless 4th overall pick Cody Zeller vastly outperforms expectations however, it's doubtful they can compete for a playoff spot in the East.

NBA Team Tiers 2013-2014: Tier V

In a previous post, I outlined six NBA regular season Team Tiers ranging from title contenders to outright disasters. In this series, I will predict which teams fit into each tier for the 2013-2014 season, starting from the bottom up. As always, teams within this Tier are presented in no particular order.

Tier V (20-29 wins): Lottery-bound

Sacramento Kings

The Kings recently had a change in ownership (finally!), and should be back on the road to respectability. But it's going to take some time. DeMarcus Cousins is so talented, they'll have a hard time losing as many games as the Tier VI teams, but it's hard to imagine this roster striking a good balance of offense and defense. Their guards are all essentially one-way players (Grievis Vasquez, Isaiah Thomas, Jimmer, Marcus Thornton), with the possible exception of Ben McLemore. But he's a rookie, so don't expect great shakes from him defensively. At the forward, they have the very limited players. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (8-clap!) is a terrific defender who can't score and Jason Thompsons is a decent rebounder and scorer around the bucket but can't generate his own offense or defend the paint. All told, I think they will perform reasonably well at home and beat some good teams now and then, but will struggle with consistency.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks surprisingly traded their best player, point guard Brandon Jennings, for Brandon Knight, best know for being dunked on. Knight will share the backcourt with free agent acquisition OJ Mayo and Luke Ridnour, an odd match to say the least. They don't have the personnel to defend guards and wings, and I'm guessing that might be a problem in a division with Derrick Rose, Paul George and Kyrie Irving. Luckily they have defensive ace Larry Sanders to clean up the blown coverages (and Zaza to back him up in case of foul trouble), but they've got no offensive pop in the front line. Unless Ilyasova somehow regains his 2011 form.

Utah Jazz

By letting Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson leave in free agency, the Jazz signaled pretty clearly that they are entering into a new phase for their franchise. But unlike the these other teams, they already have their young nucleus together. Their top 6 guys are Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, Gordon Heyward, Alec Burks, Trey Burke, and Brandon Rush. That's a very talented core that should at least be exciting to watch. However, those guys are all unproven youngsters so it's unlikely they win many games. Plus they have very little depth after taking on salary flotsam (Biedrinds and Richard Jefferson) to get above the salary floor. Expect the Jazz to go into half-time ahead or close on most nights, only go get blown open in the second half by more experienced, deeper teams.

NBA Team Tiers 2013-2014: Tier VI

In a previous post, I outlined six NBA regular season Team Tiers ranging from title contenders to outright disasters. In this series, I will predict which teams fit into each tier for the 2013-2014 season, starting from the bottom up.

Tier VI (fewer than 20 wins): Definitely tanking

Philadelphia 76ers

All the Sixers have done this offseason is watch Andrew Bynum walk (hobble?) away for nothing and trade their most promising young player Jrue Holiday for an injured draft pick. Clearly, this team is hitting the reset button and intends to have a bottom-three record this season. Trading Holiday for Nerlens Noel and a potential late lottery 2014 pick was the right move for the team's future considering the epic strength of the 2014 draft. Plus they've got a valuable veteran in Thad Young as a trade chip. Philly is playing the long game about as well as possible, but I do have a couple nagging problems. First, they really need Evan Turner to be at least an above average starter, something he's not shown he can do for long stretches. Second, they will be starting a rookie point guard who can't shoot in Michael Carter-Williams. I'm worried about these two co-existing and not detracting from each others' development.

Orlando Magic

After pulling a surprisingly good haul out of the Dwightmare fiasco, the Magic are ready to stink again in a very competitive Eastern conference. Similar to the Sixers, this appears to be part of a larger plan to build through young players and the draft. If they can move the contracts of serviceable veterans Jameer Nelson and Aron Afflalo for more young players, draft picks, and cap room, their rebuilding future looks quite bright. Oladipo, Vucevic, Tobias Harris and a top 5 pick in next year's draft is an exciting young core with plenty of room to grow.

Phoenix Suns

I'm not sure the Suns have their future mapped out as well as the teams above. In theory they have a young point guard and center combo to build around, but it's unclear if Bledsoe is good enough at either end in the half court or if Alex Len can play at the NBA level at all (the stress fracture in his foot is a gigantic red flag, mythical training staff be damned). Whereas any top 5 pick in the draft will serve the above teams quite well, the Suns really need a top 2 pick next year to turn things around. Though they'll certainly do their best, no amount of losing can guarantee a top 2 pick.

NBA Regular Season 2013/14 Preview: Defining Team Tiers

As we've seen with the draft, the process of defining tiers and binning prospects into them has become a valuable tool in setting expectations and making predictions. A similar approach can be taken to bin entire teams ahead of the season. While exact final win totals can easily be pushed a few games in one direction or another by common chance events (minor injuries, shaky refereeing, unlikely buzzer-beaters, missed foul shots etc.), the over quality of a team is relatively more predictable. Before we start binning teams ahead of the high-drama 2013/2014 NBA season, let's take a post to set up meaningful groups.

Tier I (54+ wins): Contenders

Overwhelmingly, teams that win the NBA Championship win at least 55 games. That's not to say every team that breaks 55 has a realistic shot in any given year, but the history doesn't lie.

Tier II (48-54 wins): Very good playoff teams

Some teams are, barring injury, practically assured to make the playoffs based on their talent level and past performance. As per usual, context is everything. For some franchises, like the Clippers or Bobcats, this is a great end to strive towards. For others, like the Lakers or Celtics, this is a brutal midpoint; the hardest stage in championship building is going from good to great.

Tier III (41-47 wins): Playoff bubble teams

These teams have a realistic shot at making the postseason, but would be heavily favored to lose in the first round. Often, this tier has a fair number more teams than playoff slots available, meaning that this type of analysis will not formally attempt to predict which teams will grab the 7 and 8 spots. Rather, it admits and accepts the fact that chance plays more of a role than team quality at this level.

Tier IV (30-40 wins): Not awful

Typically either propped up by a single excellent player or by talented young players who don't yet have their talents honed, some teams fight tough and win a bunch of home games but don't have true playoff aspirations.

Tier V (20-29 wins): Lottery-bound

Some teams are just not good.

Tier VI (fewer than 20 wins): Definitely tanking

This doesn't happen every year, as 2012/13 showed. The team with the worst record last season was the Magic with 20.

2013 NBA Draft Grades (Lottery)

"Judge the ball while it's in the air."

I love this coaching cliche because it jibes with my opinion that decision-makers should be judged on their ability to come to logical, evidence-based conclusions in the moment. On the court, this statement places shot selection above the result, be it swish or brick.

Applying this idea to roster management, I think the best time to hand out marks is when there's been just enough time to let the dust settle but before any serious outcomes can be measured. Nobody knows how these young men will develop or get injured or fizzle or bloom, so opinion and conjecture are actually appropriate.

With that in mind, here's my preseason draft grades for the top 13 picks in the draft:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers select Anthony Bennett:
B+
I can't very well hand out a poor grade after I pitched the idea of Bennett as a good idea for the #1 pick on this very blog, can I? I still like this pick because Bennett does multiple things well: shooting from mid-range, muscling his way into the paint, and rebounding. He's young and athletic and showed more basketball skill than nearly anyone else in this class. He doesn't look like a #1, but there simply wasn't one this year.

2. Orlando Magic select Victor Oladipo
B+
Oladipo has basketball nerds falling in love with him. Bill Simmons has repeatedly said that the worst case scenario for him is Tony Allen. That level of infatuation is borderline intoxication. Allen is a no-brainer first-team all defender, and there's really no evidence that Oladipo is world-class. Yet. I agree that he might get there and his offensive game has looked really good over the past year, so I'm excited to see how he turns out. This would have been an A if Noel weren't on the board.

3. Washington Wizards select Otto Porter
D+
This is where it gets ugly. Apparently, the Wiz had decided on Porter ahead of time and just ignored Nerlens Noel. The talent gap between Porter and Noel is huge, and the Wizards have no future bigmen in the pipeline. With Martel Webster already slotted in as a 3-and-D wing player, there was no positional need either. The only reason this isn't and F is because Porter will probably be a solid sixth man or starter for a playoff team next year and that's a clean score for a draft this top-light.

4. Charlotte Bobcats select Cody Zeller
D-
At least he isn't hurt. That's about the best praise I can lavish upon this shockingly poor selection. Zeller has very good skill and size for the PF position, but is a bad rebounder and projects as an average or below average defender at best. If Noel were off the board, I would have gone C+ here, but the Bobcats desperately need an inside game-changer and Zeller is not that type of player.

5. Phoenix Suns select Alex Len
F
Len has strong potential, but his stress fracture injury is potentially much worse long-term than Noel's likely-to-recover-completely knee ligament issue. Given the haul New Orleans raked in for Noel, this looks to be an absolute disaster for the Suns.

6. Philadelphia 76ers (via New Orleans) select Nerlens Noel
Sixers: A-
This is a clear tanking move by the 76ers. My only worry is that there's no guarantee that any of the 3 players they "get" from this trade (Noel, their own lottery pick, and a protected pick from New Orleans) will be as good as Holiday. The range of outcomes from this trade is extremely wide, but it definitely opens the door for a swift and effective re-build.

Pelicans: A
Somebody got an All-Star in the top 10! And they said it couldn't be done. Taking advantage of a team desperate to bottom out under a new regime, the Pellies snapped up a 23 year-old All-Star point guard who plays both ways, doesn't need tons of shots to be effective, and appears to be a model citizen. As much fun as the "block party" would have been, I love this draft/trade for them. The pick they traded away is top-5 protected next year, so worst case scenario they end up at 6 and miss out on a great prospect. But you can't rebuild forever, and they decided that the Holiday/Davis core is good enough to build a contender around.

7. Sacramento Kings select Ben McLemore
B+
This was an easy grab for the newly acquired Kings. While he doesn't appear to have a leader's mentality, McLemore can shoot, defend, and finish at a very high level. The only reason this grade isn't higher is because I have serious doubts as to whether the team situation is a proper fit for a player who needs real nurturing to find his potential. It was definitely the right move for the Kings, but unless the culture gets turned around he could have a fairly forgettable career.

8. Detroit Pistons select Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
B-
This is where the depth of the draft starts to wane a bit. Here they nab a solid shooter and all-around wing talent, but his upside is fairly low. I was surprised that they didn't go with the local kid (see next pick).

9. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota) select Trey Burke
Utah: A-
Utah wanted to come out of the draft with a point guard to pair with their promising young core, and ended up with their top choice. The price was very reasonable (#14 and #21), so it's hard to argue against this move. The fly in the ointment is Burke's small size and propensity to take ludicrous outside shots.

Minnesota: B-
Instead of drafting Shabazz Mohammed at 9, Minnesota traded down and got him and Gorgui Dieng for the price of one. Mohammed is a good luxury gamble for them because they project as a playoff team. If he turns out to be good, they will be dangerous. If he's awful, their development as a team will continue despite him. As an older guy on a rookie deal who can step in right away and defend the paint off the bench, Dieng is a shrewd addition to the roster.

10. Portland Trailblazers select CJ McCollum
B+
While his skill set overlaps somewhat with rookie of the year Damien Lillard, McCollum has a very high talent level for the tenth overall pick and represents good value. Whether he comes off the bench (a glaring weakness for this team last year) or plays alongside Lillard, the Blazers now have a very dangerous backcourt offensively.

11. Philadelphia 76ers select Michael Carter-Williams
B+
Another good value pick, Carter-Williams will be handed the keys to a team with extremely low expectations in terms of win/loss record. He'll get a chance to have tons of reps in his first few years while being allowed to sink as he learns to swim.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder select Steven Adams
C
A "C" grade usually means "average" or "satisfactory." That describes this pick quite well. Adams has tantalizing potential, but right now is a very very young and unpolished player. Even if he does blossom into a productive player, it will probably be after Durant and Westbrook peak as a duo 4-5 years from now. Hard to see how this improves a team looking to win a title now.

13. Boston Celtics (via Dallas) select Kelly Olynyk
Boston: C
Another average selection, as Olynyk will likely always be a one-way player and it's unclear how effective he'll even be at that end of the court. Boston is bottoming out and starting over, but Olynyk is probably best suited as a role player on a good team. I would have swung for the fences instead of taking the safe route.

Dallas: B-
The Mavs drafted Lucas Nogueira and picked up 2 second rounders in this deal. I like Noguiera's potential, and they saved some cash and picked up cheap assets by trading down.

NBA Draft 2013: Final Pre-draft Predictions

Here are some quick predictions on the morning of the 2013 NBA Draft:

• Noel should go #1. Let's not over think this, he's far and away the best prospect.
• Oladipo should go #2. His defensive ability and character are worth the risk offensively.
• I think we'll look back and be surprised by whoever ends up the best PG out of this class. I think Burke and MCW both lack a true NBA skill ("willingness to take insane 30 footers" and "size" are not skills) and will wash out.
• Ben MacLemore has tremendous Darko potential. I have serious doubts about him succeeding as a professional basketball player.
• Anthony Bennet has become under-rated because of his shoulder injury. He may slide to 6-8 in the draft and end up being the second or third best pro.
• There won't be as many significant trades as you think (there almost never are).
• The Thunder will seem overloaded with talent after landing a "slider" at 12 and a high-upside pick at 29, but neither will contribute significantly to their inevitable deep playoff runs in the next couple seasons.
• Cody Zeller's subpar defensive rebounding in college is a major problem. He will struggle to stay on the floor at the NBA level.  
• All the excuses for Alex Len's poor production don't add up. Add in the foot problem (ankle stress fracture is a repetative stress injury, not a freak accident injury like Noel) and I have serious doubts about him as a top 10 prospect.
• 3DA guys (3 point shooting, wing defense, athleticism) who might be in the rotation for playoff teams next season: Reggie Bullock and Tim Hardaway Jr..
• Boston will do something strange with the #16 pick. Tony Mitchell? Greek Freak? Ricardo Ledo? I think they'll swing for the fences on this one.
• Dieng has become underrated because of his age and poor offense. He's a rotation player right away for defense and rebounding.
• Jeff Withey will have a better pro career than Kelly Olynyk despite being drafted 10-20 spots lower.
• That Caldwell-Pope rebounded and scored efficiently on a terrible team with defenses geared to stop him - at age 20 -  is a great sign. I'd consider taking him as high as 6 overall (ahead of Len), projecting as a future starter.