2013 NBA Draft Grades (Lottery)

"Judge the ball while it's in the air."

I love this coaching cliche because it jibes with my opinion that decision-makers should be judged on their ability to come to logical, evidence-based conclusions in the moment. On the court, this statement places shot selection above the result, be it swish or brick.

Applying this idea to roster management, I think the best time to hand out marks is when there's been just enough time to let the dust settle but before any serious outcomes can be measured. Nobody knows how these young men will develop or get injured or fizzle or bloom, so opinion and conjecture are actually appropriate.

With that in mind, here's my preseason draft grades for the top 13 picks in the draft:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers select Anthony Bennett:
B+
I can't very well hand out a poor grade after I pitched the idea of Bennett as a good idea for the #1 pick on this very blog, can I? I still like this pick because Bennett does multiple things well: shooting from mid-range, muscling his way into the paint, and rebounding. He's young and athletic and showed more basketball skill than nearly anyone else in this class. He doesn't look like a #1, but there simply wasn't one this year.

2. Orlando Magic select Victor Oladipo
B+
Oladipo has basketball nerds falling in love with him. Bill Simmons has repeatedly said that the worst case scenario for him is Tony Allen. That level of infatuation is borderline intoxication. Allen is a no-brainer first-team all defender, and there's really no evidence that Oladipo is world-class. Yet. I agree that he might get there and his offensive game has looked really good over the past year, so I'm excited to see how he turns out. This would have been an A if Noel weren't on the board.

3. Washington Wizards select Otto Porter
D+
This is where it gets ugly. Apparently, the Wiz had decided on Porter ahead of time and just ignored Nerlens Noel. The talent gap between Porter and Noel is huge, and the Wizards have no future bigmen in the pipeline. With Martel Webster already slotted in as a 3-and-D wing player, there was no positional need either. The only reason this isn't and F is because Porter will probably be a solid sixth man or starter for a playoff team next year and that's a clean score for a draft this top-light.

4. Charlotte Bobcats select Cody Zeller
D-
At least he isn't hurt. That's about the best praise I can lavish upon this shockingly poor selection. Zeller has very good skill and size for the PF position, but is a bad rebounder and projects as an average or below average defender at best. If Noel were off the board, I would have gone C+ here, but the Bobcats desperately need an inside game-changer and Zeller is not that type of player.

5. Phoenix Suns select Alex Len
F
Len has strong potential, but his stress fracture injury is potentially much worse long-term than Noel's likely-to-recover-completely knee ligament issue. Given the haul New Orleans raked in for Noel, this looks to be an absolute disaster for the Suns.

6. Philadelphia 76ers (via New Orleans) select Nerlens Noel
Sixers: A-
This is a clear tanking move by the 76ers. My only worry is that there's no guarantee that any of the 3 players they "get" from this trade (Noel, their own lottery pick, and a protected pick from New Orleans) will be as good as Holiday. The range of outcomes from this trade is extremely wide, but it definitely opens the door for a swift and effective re-build.

Pelicans: A
Somebody got an All-Star in the top 10! And they said it couldn't be done. Taking advantage of a team desperate to bottom out under a new regime, the Pellies snapped up a 23 year-old All-Star point guard who plays both ways, doesn't need tons of shots to be effective, and appears to be a model citizen. As much fun as the "block party" would have been, I love this draft/trade for them. The pick they traded away is top-5 protected next year, so worst case scenario they end up at 6 and miss out on a great prospect. But you can't rebuild forever, and they decided that the Holiday/Davis core is good enough to build a contender around.

7. Sacramento Kings select Ben McLemore
B+
This was an easy grab for the newly acquired Kings. While he doesn't appear to have a leader's mentality, McLemore can shoot, defend, and finish at a very high level. The only reason this grade isn't higher is because I have serious doubts as to whether the team situation is a proper fit for a player who needs real nurturing to find his potential. It was definitely the right move for the Kings, but unless the culture gets turned around he could have a fairly forgettable career.

8. Detroit Pistons select Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
B-
This is where the depth of the draft starts to wane a bit. Here they nab a solid shooter and all-around wing talent, but his upside is fairly low. I was surprised that they didn't go with the local kid (see next pick).

9. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota) select Trey Burke
Utah: A-
Utah wanted to come out of the draft with a point guard to pair with their promising young core, and ended up with their top choice. The price was very reasonable (#14 and #21), so it's hard to argue against this move. The fly in the ointment is Burke's small size and propensity to take ludicrous outside shots.

Minnesota: B-
Instead of drafting Shabazz Mohammed at 9, Minnesota traded down and got him and Gorgui Dieng for the price of one. Mohammed is a good luxury gamble for them because they project as a playoff team. If he turns out to be good, they will be dangerous. If he's awful, their development as a team will continue despite him. As an older guy on a rookie deal who can step in right away and defend the paint off the bench, Dieng is a shrewd addition to the roster.

10. Portland Trailblazers select CJ McCollum
B+
While his skill set overlaps somewhat with rookie of the year Damien Lillard, McCollum has a very high talent level for the tenth overall pick and represents good value. Whether he comes off the bench (a glaring weakness for this team last year) or plays alongside Lillard, the Blazers now have a very dangerous backcourt offensively.

11. Philadelphia 76ers select Michael Carter-Williams
B+
Another good value pick, Carter-Williams will be handed the keys to a team with extremely low expectations in terms of win/loss record. He'll get a chance to have tons of reps in his first few years while being allowed to sink as he learns to swim.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder select Steven Adams
C
A "C" grade usually means "average" or "satisfactory." That describes this pick quite well. Adams has tantalizing potential, but right now is a very very young and unpolished player. Even if he does blossom into a productive player, it will probably be after Durant and Westbrook peak as a duo 4-5 years from now. Hard to see how this improves a team looking to win a title now.

13. Boston Celtics (via Dallas) select Kelly Olynyk
Boston: C
Another average selection, as Olynyk will likely always be a one-way player and it's unclear how effective he'll even be at that end of the court. Boston is bottoming out and starting over, but Olynyk is probably best suited as a role player on a good team. I would have swung for the fences instead of taking the safe route.

Dallas: B-
The Mavs drafted Lucas Nogueira and picked up 2 second rounders in this deal. I like Noguiera's potential, and they saved some cash and picked up cheap assets by trading down.

NBA Draft 2013: Final Pre-draft Predictions

Here are some quick predictions on the morning of the 2013 NBA Draft:

• Noel should go #1. Let's not over think this, he's far and away the best prospect.
• Oladipo should go #2. His defensive ability and character are worth the risk offensively.
• I think we'll look back and be surprised by whoever ends up the best PG out of this class. I think Burke and MCW both lack a true NBA skill ("willingness to take insane 30 footers" and "size" are not skills) and will wash out.
• Ben MacLemore has tremendous Darko potential. I have serious doubts about him succeeding as a professional basketball player.
• Anthony Bennet has become under-rated because of his shoulder injury. He may slide to 6-8 in the draft and end up being the second or third best pro.
• There won't be as many significant trades as you think (there almost never are).
• The Thunder will seem overloaded with talent after landing a "slider" at 12 and a high-upside pick at 29, but neither will contribute significantly to their inevitable deep playoff runs in the next couple seasons.
• Cody Zeller's subpar defensive rebounding in college is a major problem. He will struggle to stay on the floor at the NBA level.  
• All the excuses for Alex Len's poor production don't add up. Add in the foot problem (ankle stress fracture is a repetative stress injury, not a freak accident injury like Noel) and I have serious doubts about him as a top 10 prospect.
• 3DA guys (3 point shooting, wing defense, athleticism) who might be in the rotation for playoff teams next season: Reggie Bullock and Tim Hardaway Jr..
• Boston will do something strange with the #16 pick. Tony Mitchell? Greek Freak? Ricardo Ledo? I think they'll swing for the fences on this one.
• Dieng has become underrated because of his age and poor offense. He's a rotation player right away for defense and rebounding.
• Jeff Withey will have a better pro career than Kelly Olynyk despite being drafted 10-20 spots lower.
• That Caldwell-Pope rebounded and scored efficiently on a terrible team with defenses geared to stop him - at age 20 -  is a great sign. I'd consider taking him as high as 6 overall (ahead of Len), projecting as a future starter.

The Pelicans, in Brief

The New Orleans Pelicans are an up-and-coming team featuring a fresh new name, a budding star* in Anthony Davis, an elite** two-way guard in Eric Gordon, and one of the brightest young minds in basketball with head coach Monty Williams. They also own the sixth overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft, which happens to have about 7 players worth of a top 5 pick.

With their two core guys able to play multiple positions in today's NBA, the Pelicans are in an ideal spot to draft the best player available. Here's a look at some players who fit really well:

Alex Len is a skilled center with good size and athleticism. While Anthony Davis can play center, if his rookie season was any indication, Monty Williams would prefer to have him at power forward next to a true man-in-the-middle center. Robin Lopez played well last year, but Len has a much much higher ceiling.

Anthony Bennett can really score, and offensively he could be a real mismatch as a small forward. He reminds me of a stronger version of Michael Beasley, without the crazy. That's a pretty enticing package.

Trey Burke could be a nice solution at point guard. He is a strong enough shooter to rotate ball-handling duties with Eric Gordon.

Ben McLemore has talents which overlap Eric Gordon pretty strongly. Neither quite has the size to guard small forwards or the pure point abilities to run the team, so there's a bit of a problem with fit. However, I think a trade could be worked out with the Phoenix Suns to swap Eric Gordon for the #5 pick and some contracts. This would have to take place later in the summer, as Gordon signed an offer sheet with the Suns and cannot be traded there for one full calendar year.





* IF HE CAN STAY HEALTHY
** IF HE CAN GET AND STAY HEALTHY

NBA Draft 2013: Top 5 Comps

Comparing prospects to past or present players is a fun way for analysts and fans of many sports to put potential draftees into context. The problem of course is that no two players are alike. If you need proof, look no further than the several sets of identical twins in the history of the NBA (most recently the Morris and Collins twins): none of them seem to have the same game as their genetic clone.

For this article, I'm going to take a look at five of the top prospects in this draft and find an NBA All-Star who, as a rookie or prospect, shares significant similarities in physique, skills, and weaknesses with the likely top 6. The goal is to contextualize the players' ceilings. Let's roll:

Nerlens Noel <=> Tyson Chandler

Physique: Skinny seven footers, long and athletic
Skills: Shot-blocking
Weakness: Offense
Wildcard: The jersey number 3

Chandler came into the league as a confused high schooler who wanted to be the next Kevin Garnett. That never happened, but he eventually turned into the defensive anchor for the NBA champion Mavs and was named to his first All-Star game in 2013. Noel has that potential defensively, and if he can learn to set good screens and crash the hoop for lobs and offensive rebounds, he could be an All-Star too some day.

Ben McLemore <=> Ray Allen

Physique: Prototypical 2-guards

Skills: Shooting, finishing in transition

Weakness: Defense

Wildcard: Ray Allen, movie star. Ben McLemore, famous rapper (wait, is it the same Macklemore??)

This comparison gets thrown around often because Allen is a near idealization of his position. Superstars are rarely among the great shooters, but Allen and Reggie Miller (also pictured above) stand out. If McLemore plays on a team that gets him open jumpers and he attacks the basket relentlessly, he has great potential.

Anthony Bennett <=> Larry Johnson 

Physique: Strong and quick but undersized power forwards

Skills: Inside/outside power game with shooting range

Weakness: Size

Wildcard: Both are UNLV Runnin' Reb's!

Technically Grandmama never made an All-Star game, but it's an outright travesty that he wasn't on the 92-93 team (Kevin Willis and the immortal Michael Adams were selected as injury replacements for the Eastern Conference, with LJ at home in Charlotte averaging a 22/10... oops!). He enjoyed a long and memorable career because of his incredible knack for scoring and his willingness to bully opponents into the paint. Bennett can do those things and if he, like LJ, can overcome his relatively short stature he's got a bright future.

Otto Porter <=> Danny Granger

Physique: Tall and long small forwards

Skills: Shooting

Weakness: Average athleticism

Wildcard: Hermione Granger's best friend is Harry Porter. Or is it Potter? 

Granger fell to Indiana in the late lottery before making the 2009 All-Star team. His success is due in large part to his ability to get his very effective mid-range shot off over shorter defenders. Porter did exactly the same thing at Georgetown.

Victor Olidapo <=> Dwyane Wade

Physique: Compact, high-flying 2-guards

Skills: Attacking the basket, off-the-charts intangibles

Weakness: Outside shooting

Wildcard: Both probably won "Most likely to have their name misspelled" in their HS yearbook

Wade was more under the radar at Marquette than Olidapo was at Indiana, but exhibited similarly explosive leaping ability and a presence of character that made Pat Riley believe he could be a star. Olidapo has that buzz around him after an out-of-nowhere amazing year at IU. 

NOTE: All images found via Google Image search and are copyright of their respective owners.

2013 NBA Mock Draft v1

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

Anthony Bennett | PF | 6'8" | 240lbs | 20 years | University of Las Vegas Nevada

This is an unconventional pick, but bear with me; there's some logic behind it. First, though it seems Cleveland would love to trade down or out of this draft, the market for presumptive #1 overall prospect Nerlens Noel is luke-warm at best. Next, the Cavs want to start winning some games next season, not just a lottery slot. Also consider that in the past two drafts they have made very unusual picks in the top 5; few teams would have taken either Tristan Thompson or Dion Waiters as high as fourth overall. I think GM Chris Grant will find it difficult to tease apart the top five prospects and end up picking the one who has the best combination of star-potential and fit. I think Bennett's ability to stretch the floor and his elite athleticism will pair very well with Thompson in the front court.

2. Orlando Magic

Nerlens Noel | C | 7'0" | 206lbs | 19 years | University of Kentucky

Any scenario in which Noel falls to Orlando is a windfall for them. They will try to talk themselves into Trey Burke as the point guard of their future, but would be relived to find an ultra-athletic shot-blocker at pick two. They are much happier waiting another year (at least) to be competitive, so Noel's injury and weight issues are less problematic for them. 

3. Washington Wizards

Otto Porter | SF | 6'9" | 198lbs | 19 years | Georgetown University

With the dynamite backcourt of Wall and Beal, Porter appears to be a terrific fit in Washington. He will likely be able to guard multiple positions on the floor, and will benefit from plenty of open jumpers with all the attention on the guards. 

4. Charlotte Bobcats

Ben McLemore | SG | 6'5" | 189 lbs | 20 years | Kansas University

The Bobcats need some pop in their offense, and McLemore has the shooting ability and physique to be a very effective offensive player.

5. Phoenix Suns

Victor Oladipo | SG | 6'4" | 213lbs | 21 years | Indiana University

The Suns would probably be thrilled to find Oladipo available. Their team needs a major culture change, and Oladipo's contagious competitive fire is exactly what the doctor ordered.

6. New Orleans Pelicans

Trey Burke | PG | 6'1" | 187lbs | 20 years | University of Michigan

Austin Rivers was a disaster last year, and even if he improves dramatically his ceiling is probably as a back-up. Burke can learn the game behind the greatly improved Greivus Vasquez and grow along with last year's #1 overall Anthony Davis.

7. Sacramento Kings

Alex Len | C | 7'1" | 225lbs | 19 years | University of Maryland

With new ownership and an as yet unfilled GM seat, it's hard to peg where the Kings will go with this pick. Len is a good fit because he has the size, skill, and lack of selfishness to play along side mercurial big man DeMarcus Cousins. He is a good value at this point in the draft.

8. Detroit Pistons

Michael Carter-Williams | PG | 6'6" | 184lbs | 21 years | Syracuse University

With nearly $19M tied up in essentially useless players (Villanueva, Stuckey, Kravtsov), the Pistons aren't going anywhere in 2013/14. However, they've got two terrific young bigs in Monroe and Drummond. I think they will be deciding between Carter-Williams and CJ McCollum here, and GMs love to pick the guy who's taller and played for a better college team. Also, he's more of a true point guard, as opposed to McCollum who plays a similar game to other combo guards on the Pistons.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

CJ McCollum | PG/SG | 6'3" | 197lbs | 21 years | Lehigh University

Despite the lack of strong competition at mid-major Lehigh - or possibly because of it - McCollum has some serious Damien Lillard buzz around him. He projects as a dynamic scoring lead guard, and given Ricky Rubio's extraordinary defensive abilities and passing, the two could pair well.

10. Portland Trailblazers

Steven Adams | C | 7'0" | 255lbs | 19 years | University of Pittsburgh

Adams impressed greatly at the combine, displaying his obvious size and athletic prowess as well as sound jumpshot mechanics. He can already do most of what JJ Hickson did so well last season next to Lamarcus Aldridge, but is cheaper and younger.

11. Philadelphia 76ers

Cody Zeller | C/F | 7'0" | 230lbs | 20 years | Indiana University

Bynum or no, the 76ers lack size. Zeller is a skilled and tough inside player who should be able to contribute right away.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

Shabazz Muhammad | G/F | 6'6" | 222lbs | 20 years | University of California Los Angeles

This pick is a luxury for the already dangerous Thunder. They have the culture and talent in place to help Shabazz overcome his immaturity and begin to realize his potential. They've already had some success drafting guards from my employer, UCLA (Go Bruins!).

13. Dallas Mavericks

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | SG | 6'6" | 204lbs | 20 years | University of Georgia

The Mavs have a very clean sheet after Dirk and Shawn Marion, and are rumored to be shopping this pick in an attempt to get enough under the cap to sign a marquee free agent like Dwight Howard or Chris Paul. Although he played for a bad team in college, Caldwell-Pope has ideal size, athleticism, and scoring ability for a shooting guard and represents good value in the late lottery.

14. Utah Jazz

Dario Saric | SF | 6'10" | 223lbs | 19 years | Croatia

The Jazz continue to be imbalanced and uncertain going forward. They really need a point guard, but are better off collecting assets and trying to trade for one rather than reaching on a non-lottery talent here. Saric can play some point forward because of his high level basketball IQ and court vision, so the Jazz can use him as a secondary ball-handler.

15. Milwaukee Bucks

Kelly Olynyk | PF | 7'0" | 234lbs | 22 years | Gonzaga University

The only sure thing in then Bucks' future is LARRY SANDERS! anchoring the defense. Everything Sanders does well, Olynyk doesn't, and vice versa. Olynyk lead the NCAAs in player efficiency (via 2012-13 Hollinger ratings) mainly due to his insane field goal percentage (63% from the floor!) and ability to earn and make free throws (made 4/5 per game on average). 

16. Boston Celtics

Mason Plumlee | C | 7'0" | 238lbs | 23 years | Duke University

By now, most sophisticated NBA fans know how rough it is for the Celtics when KG is on the bench; their lack of depth up front has really hurt them. Plumlee does many things well, and is a little older so he should be physically mature enough to handle the NBA game right away. Also, he spent 4 years learning from Coach K, so Doc can assume a pretty high level of maturity and professionalism. 

17 and 18. Atlanta Hawks

Jamaal Franklin | SG/SF | 6'5" | 191lbs | 21 years | San Diego State University
Rudy Gobert | 7'2" | 238lbs | 20 years | France

With a projected starters Jeff Teague and Lou Williams, Atlanta could use Franklin's defense, toughness, and rebounding at the third guard spot. He has the potential to become a starter if he can develop a three point shot. With their second pick, the Hawks can swing for the fences with Gobert, the player with the longest measured standing reach in NBA draft history. Whether or not he can actually play basketball is a story for another day.

19. Cleveland Cavaliers

Reggie Bullock | SF | 6'7" | 200lbs | 22 years | University of North Carolina

I've gone with another unconventional pick for the Cavs, but they are absolutely desperate for wing players. Bullock put up decent numbers against top competition in the ACC. He can shoot and rebound, and is big enough to guard NBA small forwards. Plus he's a Tarheel, just like one that got away (Danny Green).

20. Chicago Bulls

Jeff Withey | C | 7'0" | 222lbs | 23 years | Kansas University

Chicago needs shooters and improved frontcourt depth, and would prefer an older, more NBA-ready player. Withey was very efficient at Kansas, and while he doesn't wow with lottery-type potential, he could turn out to be a very solid fourth big for Chicago.

21. Utah Jazz

Dennis Schroeder | PG | 6'2" | 165lbs | 19 years | Germany

If they don't pick a PG with the 14th pick, it is likely they'll take one here. Schoroeder is a high risk/reward prospect, the kind of player worth gambling an "extra" first rounder on.

22. Brooklyn Nets

Tony Mitchell | SF | 6'8" | 220lbs | 21 years | University of North Texas

Gerald Wallace's steep decline really hurt the Nets this year, and was a major reason why they couldn't advance past a depleted Bulls team in round 1. Mitchell is a similar type of player, but has much younger legs.

23. Indiana Pacers

Shane Larkin | PG | 6'0" | 171lbs | 20 years | University of Miami 

The Pacers are currently having their most successful season since a run to the Finals against the Lakers over a decade ago. The one glaring weakness of this team is the weak bench, partly due to Danny Granger's injuries. Larkin projects as a terrific "microwave" guard, and could give them a Nate Robinson style punch in the second unit. I love this fit.

24. New York Knicks

Sergey Karasev | SG | 6'7" | 197lbs | 19 years | Russia

Karasev is a good fit for the "Carmelo plus four shooters" formula that lead to so much early-season success for the 2012-13 Knicks.

25. Los Angeles Clippers

Gorgui Dieng | C | 6'11" | 230lbs. | 23 years | University of Louisville

Dieng committed fewer than one foul per 10 minutes and hit about two thirds of his free throws while providing excellent interior defense for the NCAA champion Cardinals. If he can do all that for 18 minutes per night for the Clippers, this pick could really help round out their team.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves

Allen Crabbe | SG | 6'6" | 197lbs | 21 years | University of California Berkeley

Shooting. And some more shooting. The Wolves could use both, and Crabbe is lethal from distance. 

27. Denver Nuggets

Lucas Nogueira | C | 6'11" | 218lbs | 20 years | Brazil

The Nuggets are a deep team right now, and probably won't have space in their rotation for whomever they draft here. Nogueira is a great long-term asset for them.

28. San Antonio Spurs

Alex Abrines | SG | 6'5" | 195lbs | 20 years | Spain

Congrats to the champions of the Western Conference! You know the Spurs will pick someone off the radar here. The basics about Abrines (athletic slasher, good shooter) sound just like a young Manu...

29. Oklahoma City Thunder

Giannis Antetokounmpo | SF | 6'9" | 218lbs | 19 years | Greece

This pick has "Euro stash" written all over it, and Giannis is a likely suspect.

30. Phoenix Suns

Glenn Rice Jr. | SG | 6'6" | 211lbs | 22 years | NBDL

The Suns need talent all over the court, and Rice Jr. has plenty. He might have a chance to play some minutes next year for them.

Pre-Lottery Team Previews: Phoenix Suns

The final team with a >10% chance at winning the lottery (tomorrow, May 21st) is the Phoenix Suns.

2012-2013 Season Review

Record: 25-57

Scoring Margin: -6.48 (28th)

The Suns were a hot mess this past season. Based on points per 100 possessions  they were the second worst offense, "bested" by only the disastrous Wizards. At least DC was a top 10 defense, poor Phoenix was in the bottom third defensively as well. 

Team Strengths

Free agent point guard Goran Dragic was good (PER 17.5), but certainly not good enough to be a franchise player. He's a good scorer and distributor, but only shot 32% from distance.

Marcin Gortat is a decent rim protector and does a good job on the boards and scoring on putbacks. Louis Scola is a highly skilled big who struggles to guard his position. Jared Dudley is a terrific glue guy but fairly useless on a team this bad.

Looking ahead, they'll potentially have decent cap space in the summer of 2014.

Team Weaknesses

Direction. In this post-Nash era, nobody knows where they Suns are going. Certainly not their players and coaches. Establishing a winning culture and attitude is paramount here. Interim head coach Lindsay Hunter is a well respected veteran player, but his chops as a coach are as yet unknown. Can he turn this thing around? 

If they win the lottery...

If this section feels repetitive across teams, that's because it is. The Suns won't be good any time soon so Nerlens Noel is the type of long-term prospect they could start to build off.

If they don't win the lottery...

They will likely have a top 6 pick.

Ben McLemore will probably get a long look even at #1 for them. Michael Beasley failed terribly as a primary scoring option last season, and McLemore would be an instant upgrade.

Anthony Bennett could do a lot worse than learning the ins and outs of the power forward position from Louis Scola. If he can add a few tricks from the offensively crafty Argentinean to his athletic frame, he could be dangerous.

Victor Oladipo has the type of winning character, toughness, athleticism, and defensive willingness that coach Hunter is craving. He wouldn't provide the offensive punch they need right now, but Oladipo might be the best pick to help change the team culture.

Otto Porter has so much talent, if the guys above are off the board he's a no-brainer as an asset moving forward.

Alex Len is the seven-footer du jour and could be a nice long-term project.

Dark Horse Alert

If they decide that Dragic isn't the answer at PG, they might consider drafting Trey Burke and try to trade The Dragon. His contract is semi-palatable for an above-average starter (3 years $22.5M).

A New Big for the Bulls

The San Antonio Spurs plotted an amazing course to its 3 post-David Robinson championships. With late draft picks in Tony Parker (2001, 28th overall) and Manu Ginobili (1999, 57th overall), they landed Hall of Fame players to complement their franchise #1 overall Tim Duncan. They've also plucked out an amazing range of players in the late first or second round, including: Louis Scola, Leandro Barbosa, Benoh Udrih, George Hill, DeJuan Blair, Tiago Splitter, and others. That amazing knack for picking up assets has a lot to do with how they've been able to remain contenters for the entirety of Duncan's career.

The Chicago Bulls clearly want to follow this mold, and have had some success in the Thibodeau era. Recent picks Taj Gibson, Omer Asik, and Jimmy Butler have all turned out to be terrific pros. Two more in the pipeline, rookie Marquis Teague and Real Madrid's starting power forward Nikola Mirotic are young guys with great talent. 

This season the Bulls own the 20th overall pick and, due to the a managerial error of not matching Houston's offer for Asik, lack a young big man to develop. There are some interesting options for the Bulls to explore, as this is a draft deep in potential rotation players. One luxury of being a further along team like Chicago is that age isn't as big a factor. Some players might scare off lottery teams by being 22 or 23 years old, but the Bulls can afford to take lower-ceiling players who are ready now.

Probably won't be there:

There are three guys who will likely hear their name called early on draft night, but have enough uncertainty surrounding them to make a fall out of the top 20 a slim but real possibility.

Kelly Olynyk (22 years, 7'0", Gonzaga University) is a mobile, long-haired scoring big man with agility and range. Offensively, he was lights out for the Bulldogs, posting a massive PER (36.6). He isn't yet known as a rim protector, but has the athleticism and size to excel in that role. It would be a shock if he slipped too far into the teens, let alone #20.

Gorgui Dieng (?? years, 6'11", Louisville University) wowed the whole country with his strong defensive play in the NCAA tournament. He has amazing length and moves really well. His age is a question, (probably 23 years old) so his lack of skill on offense will scare away lottery teams. He might be a steal though in the mid-late teens.

Rudy Gobert (20 years, 7'1", France) is a long lean athlete who's range as a prospect is nearly as long as his arms. He might not be good enough to play professional basketball in the US, or he might develop into an All Star. A classic project, but someone will gamble on him.

More realistic:

These three players suffer from a Goldilocks problem: we've either seen too much of them, or too little. Each deserves to be a first round pick, and most scenarios have at least one of them available at 20 overall.

Mason Plumlee (23 years, 6'10", Duke University), younger brother of Indiana Pacer benchwarmer Miles, played four solid years for Coach K where he demonstrated good athleticism, a strong basketball IQ, and a reliable mid-range jumper. Not a terrifically exciting player on paper, but a very useful one.

Steven Adams (19 years, 7'0", University of Pittsburgh) has size and youth to spare. He plays hard and has a ton of potential. It is unclear if he will ever build up the skill to be more than an end of the bench guy.

Jeff Withey (23 years, 7'0", Kansas University) is another solid senior from a great program who isn't getting much hype. He figures to be a plus defender and is confident scoring near the basket, a nice combination for Coach Thibs and company to play with.

Dark Horse:

The dropoff is pretty significant after those first six young men. In all likelihood, if all six are off the board the Bulls will take the best player available rather than staunchly stick with picking a big. They may even be able to draft this player with their second round pick (#49 overall).

Lucas Nogueira (20 years, 6'11", Brazil) reminds many of his similarly coiffed countryman Anderson Varejao at this age. Bouncy, energetic, and long, Nogueira has been developing in Spain and could be a steal.