2014 NBA Mock Draft v2

The 2014 NBA Draft is only a few days away, so here's my final mock draft.

#	Team	Player
1	Cleveland Cavaliers	Andrew Wiggins	It’s time for Cleveland to not overthink things. Wiggins has looked like a #1 for a solid year, and has the rare athletic talent and size to be a dominant wing player. I think his detractors are forgetting how young he is. Like all prospects, development will be key for him.
2	Milwaukee Bucks	Jabari Parker	This seems like an increasingly good fit for both sides. Parker can start his career in the anonymity of Milwaukee and work on his craft.
3	Philadelphia 76ers	Noah Vonleh	The Sixers are as disappointed as any team about Embiid’s injury, because it means Wiggins is less likely to fall to 3. I think they should pair Vonleh with Nerlens Noel and create a dynamic inside tandem with great complementary skills.
4	Orlando Magic	Dante Exum	They’ll be tempted by Embiid, but ultimately the risk is too high with Exum sitting on the board.
5	Utah Jazz	Marcus Smart	The back court of Smart and Burke would be non-traditional for sure, but a smart coach could make it work (see Hornacek, J.)
6	Boston Celtics	Joel Embiid	Danny Ainge knows a rare asset when he sees one, and will likely grab Embiid if available, if for no other reason than to strengthen their bid for Kevin Love.
7	LA Lakers	Julius Randle	Believe it or not, the Lakers are rebuilding. Randle is a forgotten man in this draft, but could easily average a double-double as a rookie and remind everyone why he was considered a top 5 prospect for most of the year.
8	Sacramento Kings	Aaron Gordon	He’s the best player available and fills a need. Clean score for the Kings, who should be getting better soon… right?
9	Charlotte Hornets	Gary Harris	Coach Steve Clifford is smart enough to know that he can’t get away with playing subpar defenders on the wing with Big Al manning the center position. Yes, they need shooters, but those shooters have to be able to stay on the floor defensively. That’s why I like Harris here.
10	Philadelphia 76ers	Nik Stauskas	The best shooter in the draft is a great fit here.
11	Denver Nuggets	Doug McDermott	Nobody knows what type of team Brian Shaw wants to build, but the legacy (and atmosphere) of the team always shifts towards fast-paced offence. Doug has a million tricks up his sleeve and should pair nicely with Ty Lawson.
12	Orlando Magic	James Young	With Aaron Afflalo being shopped, wing depth is a key need. Young is a nice upside pick here.
13	Minnesota T’Wolves	Rodney Hood	The best shooter on the board, Hood can space the floor for Flip Saunder’s offense.
14	Phoenix Suns	Dario Saric	Saric will spend the next 2-3 years in Turkey, which is OK with the Suns.
15	Atlanta Hawks	Elfrid Payton	There are rumors of Payton going much higher than this, but this is probably his floor. The Hawks have never been sold on Jeff Teague as the long-term solution at point guard, so it’s a good fit.
16	Chicago Bulls	Clint Capela	As I mentioned in a previous post, the Bulls are more focused on Melo than this draft. Using this pick on an international “stasher” can help save cap space now. Capela has out of this world length and projected stats, the makings of a future defensive anchor.
17	Boston Celtics	Zach LaVine	Briefly considered a top-10 prospect, LaVine has athleticism in spades but has no idea how to play basketball. Trust me, I’m a UCLA fan. I like the idea of Celtics “royal jelly” working its magic on this kid.
18	Phoenix Suns	Tyler Ennis	Rumors are going around that the Suns are looking for a point guard. Who knows if that’s true or why, but Ennis is a good value here anyways.
19	Chicago Bulls	Adreian Payne	Falling on draft boards due to his age (he’s 6 months older than Kawhi Leonard), Payne could fill a role as a backup big immediately because of his length, rebounding, and shooting ability.
20	Toronto Raptors	Jarnell Stokes	This bruising forward has been charging up draft boards due to his similar stats and measurables to Julius Randle. The Raptors are a good team, so they can develop this talented but raw young big man.
21	OKC Thunder	PJ Hairston	Hairston shot around leave average from 3pt range in the D-League, but was an 87% free throw shooter. This shooting potential, along with his NBA-ready frame, could make him a solid role-player for a shallow Thunder squad.
22	Memphis Grizzlies	Kyle Anderson	Something tells me the Grizz can figure out a way to incorporate Slo-Mo. He’d probably be better than Tayshaun Prince on opening night 2014-15.
23	Utah Jazz	Jusuf Nurkic	Seven footers who can score with their back to the basket used to get drafted in the top 5. This young man from Bosnia could be a terrific scoring big off the bench in a few years.
24	Charlotte Hornets	Shabazz Napier	Napier is a very similar prospect to the dynamic Kemba Walker. What a luxury it would be for Clifford to have a Kemba clone on the bench!
25	Houston Rockets	KJ McDaniels	The perimeter defense on the Rockets is flat horrible. Who guards Durant? Nobody. McDaniels doesn’t have a strong offensive game, but is a fantastic athlete and defender.
26	Miami Heat	Jordan Clarkson	Chalmers likely won’t get an invitation back, so Norris Cole needs a backup. Clarkson may be underrated in this draft due to a challenging junior season and being 22 years old.
27	Phoenix Suns	Cleanthony Early	Early is a great fit with what their building in the desert.
28	LA Clippers	Mitch McGary	The Clippers desperately need another big, and McGary has more skills than the competition at this point.
29	OKC Thunder	TJ Warren	I actually like Warren at #21 for them, so if he falls here he might be hard to pass up.
30	San Antonio Spurs	Jordan Adams	The metrics say Adams is one of the best prospects in this whole draft, and the Spurs certainly know how to get the best out of players passed on by other teams due to perceived limitations.

2014 NBA Draft Mock v1

The Cavs? Again? REALLY?!

This is going to be a "should do" mock, as in, this is what I think each team should do with their pick(s).

As always, thanks in advance to @ChadFordInsider and www.draftexpress.com for their in depth coverage.

#	Team	Player
1	Cleveland Cavaliers	Joel Embiid	Embiid has the best chance in this draft class to be elite at both ends of the floor. I think the Cavs will actually opt for the "more ready" Wiggins or Parker, but that could be a(nother) costly mistake.
2	Milwaukee Bucks	Jabari Parker	With a new ownership and a bad roster filled with long contracts, the Bucks need a spark to get fans interested, not necessarily championship cornerstones. Parker may not be good enough defensively to ever anchor a contender, but his dazzling offensive arsenal will draw national attention.
3	Philadelphia 76ers	Andrew Wiggins	With a point guard as reigning rookie of the year and last year’s top ranked prospect joining the team to defend the rim, this young team is desperate for wing talent. They would happily snap up Wiggins here and hope he can become a better version of Iguodala.
4	Orlando Magic	Dante Exum	Most NBA nerds are excited about the Oladipo era, and combined with Exum the Magic would have one of the league’s most explosive backcourts. Who cares which one plays point guard?
5	Utah Jazz	Noah Vonleh	Vonleh has ideal size, athleticism, and age for a top 5 prospect. He’s a good rebounder and emerging shooter, leading to favorable comparisons to Chris Bosh. He can play behind Enes Canter and Derrick Favors while he grows up.
6	Boston Celtics	Julius Randle	The players available here are actually quite similar to players they already have. Randle and Jared Sullinger overlap significantly as undersized offense-first power forwards, but Randle is just better all around.
7	LA Lakers	Marcus Smart	The Lakers have very few players. Period. They’ll need someone to actually dribble the ball, so a point guard makes sense. Getting Smart here would be a coup because he has the personality type (and talent) to keep with Kobe, if he ever returns to form.
8	Sacramento Kings	Aaron Gordon	The Kings desperately need a power forward to play with star DeMarcus Cousins. It’s unclear whether or not Gordon can shoot, but his defense-first mentality and unselfish athleticism are ideal to fill that void.
9	Charlotte Hornets	Zach LaVine	As a playoff team with a top-10 pick, the Hornets have fewer needs than typical lottery teams. They have the luxury of swinging for the fences on the talented but unproven UCLA guard. He won’t have to start as a rookie, and if he ends up being a point guard or a wing it doesn't matter to them. Of the players likely available here, he has the most upside.
10	Philadelphia 76ers	Dario Saric	The Sixers are playing the long game, so they don’t mind if Saric stays in Europe another year or so. He’s a top-5 talent with a #10 pick.
11	Denver Nuggets	Gary Harris	His athleticism and shooting are a great fit with this team, and he should be an immediate upgrade over last year’s starter Randy Foye.
12	Orlando Magic	Nik Stauskas	The Magic will continue to shop Jameer Nelson and Arron Afflalo for younger players and draft picks, and Stauskas could fill into the potentially thin guard rotation with excellent shooting.
13	Minnesota T’Wolves	James Young	This team really banked on Chase Buddinger to provide 3pt shooting and wing defense, be he regressed badly after some unfortunate injuries. Young has great potential with excellent physical tools and big performances in the NCAA tournament at only 18 years old.
14	Phoenix Suns	Doug McDermott	PJ Tucker is a free agent, so there may be playing time open for a small forward. McDermott can rain threes while Dragic and Bledsoe cut opposing defenses to pieces.
15	Atlanta Hawks	Rodney Hood	The Hawks really need a wing here, and will have a few to choose from. Hood has the best size and shooting ability of the guys still on the board.
16	Chicago Bulls	Adreiane Payne	Payne is a good defender, shooter, and rebounder. His 7’4” wingspan suggests he can both big positions. The major question is his age, 23, which limits his upside. Chicago, in win-now mode, shouldn't be bothered by his maturity.
17	Boston Celtics	Tyler Ennis	He’s got borderline lottery talent and is clearly the best player available. The C's can worry about fit later, this pick is about gathering assets.
18	Phoenix Suns	Cleanthony Early	A fast, high-character freak athlete who can shoot 3's? The more the merrier in the desert.
19	Chicago Bulls	Elfrid Payton	If the Bulls gamble and don’t pick a point guard to back up DRose at #16, they would be thrilled to see Payton fall to them here. He has size and a smooth game and should fit in nicely with the Bull’s annually strong bench.
20	Toronto Raptors	Jerami Grant	The Raptors were very good last year, and have youth enough to get even better through internal development. They can take a swing with Grant; if he ever develops an outside shot, he could be a steal. If not, he’s another athlete off the bench to play some defense.
21	OKC Thunder	T.J. Warren	In case you don’t remember, the Thunder bench had some major problems scoring in the 2014 Western finals. Warren is a crafty and talented scorer who could bolster that meager second unit.
22	Memphis Grizzlies	P.J. Hairston	The strong player culture in Memphis might be perfect to bring out his many talents. He’d get plenty of open looks with ZBo and Gasol up front.
23	Utah Jazz	Clint Capela	With so many young players on the roster already, Utah may be looking for an opportunity to draft and stash. The lanky Swiss has fallen out of favor with scouts due to how raw he is, but he has the best physical tools of all the international prospects.
24	Charlotte Hornets	Mitch McGary	Again, the Hornets can afford take a chance with their pick. McGary has shown flashes of brilliance, especially in the 2013 NCAA tournament, but has seen his stock slide due to a tough sophomore campaign marred by injuries.
25	Houston Rockets	K.J. McDaniels	The Rockets are sorely lacking in wing defenders. McDaniels is a terrific athlete and projects as a good defender. If he can develop a more consistent outside shot he could earn a starting spot for this team.
26	Miami Heat	Shabazz Napier	Mario Chalmers is entering free agency this offseason. If he leaves, Norris Cole will likely take over his starting spot, leaving a vacancy at backup guard. Napier has the confidence to roll with the big boys, as evidenced by his amazing title run at UConn, and should be a good fit with the 4-in-a-row Eastern champs.
27	Phoenix Suns	Nick Johnson	With their 3rd first round pick, the Suns grab the local product with incredible hops and a strong perimeter game. He lacks ideal size, but this team is unconventional enough to make it work.
28	LA Clippers	Kyle Anderson	Another local Pac-12 pick, the Clippers could use some wing depth due to the tragic loss of Jared Dudley’s one half-step of quickness.
29	OKC Thunder	Jusuf Nurkic	This behemoth center is a good draft-and-stash candidate. He could potentially replace Kendrick Perkins as the resident lumberer.
30	San Antonio Spurs	Bogdan Bogdanovic	This Serb is described as a versatile guard with excellent shooting range and court vision. Sounds to me like a future member of the “Foreign Legion.”

2014 Offseason Planning: Chicago Bulls

Pretending to be the GM of the Chicago Bulls is one of my favorite past-times, and there's never been a more interesting time to play the game; this offseason is likely to be one of the most volatile in recent memory. With Joakim Noah emerging as an All-NBA performer and Derrick Rose set to return, the major pieces are in place for a Tom Thibodeau-led charge to the finals in 2014-15. Bulls fans call this putting on the Derrick Rose colored glasses, and if I'm in charge of the team I have to assume that's possible.

The road to a championship roster will require carefully identifying and collecting the right players to surround their triumvirate.

Current Roster (screenshot directly from HoopsHype):

Current cap is $58.6M
Current tax is $71.7M

Assets:

Draft rights to Nikola Mirotic
Own first round draft pick (likely #18-21)
Charlotte Bobcats first round draft pick (likely #15-18)
Own second round draft pick (approximately #48 overall)
Amnesty provision available for Joakim Noah or Carlos Boozer

Get rid of Carlos Boozer's contract.

• Option #1: Use the amnesty provision to cut Carlos Boozer.
• Why I would do it: It's a single season buyout for a player who simply isn't worth the $16.8M salary cap hit. Because he is still somewhat effective offensively and as a rebounder, a team well under the cap may bid on his contract to soften to financial hit by $4-6M.
• Option #2: Trade Carlos Boozer (and his now expiring contract) and their own first round draft pick on draft day to a rebuilding team with cap space for a second round pick (#37 from Utah, or #32/#39 from Philadelphia). The Jazz and Sixers are the best candidates, as they both have second rounders in this draft and are expected to be below the salary floor). 
• Why Chicago should do it: This frees up a huge amount of space for me to work with, without using the amnesty provision that owner Jerry Reinsdorf may refused to allow. The cost is moving down 12-20 spots in the draft. The Bulls likely cannot afford or find playing time for two first round rookies next season anyways.
• Why Uta/Phi should do it: These teams have hoarded cap space with the express purpose of "renting" it out in exchange for first round picks or trades. This fits that strategy to a T. As a bonus, Boozer is a good locker room guy and a veteran who can still play a little. He even has history with the Jazz.

NBA Draft:

Let's assume these picks will be #16, #19, and #48. It's a bit too early to do a mock draft, as there are still a few weeks before the deadline for college players to declare. No matter what, I would try and package these picks to move up (or out), as there will not be much playing time for rookies next year. It is a fairly strong draft though, so getting a solid role player for the bench isn't out of the question.

Free agency:

Once I've rid myself of Boozer's contract and used both first round draft picks and my second round pick, I will have about $50M in committed salaries to 9 players. That leaves 3 roster spots and something around $10M in cap space to fill out the roster in free agency.

My first goal in free agency will be to attempt to sign Nikola Mirotic. From what I've seen (big props to DraftExpress), Mirotic seems to have a game similar to Louis Scola if the Argentine also had a lethal 3pt shot. That's a nice combination offensively, and at  23 years old Mirotic should be valuable as a bench scorer in the NBA right away. He has played at an All-Star level for Real Madrid for the past 18 months or so, and finally has the flexibility to arrange a buyout and come to the NBA if he wants.

Valuating Mirotic is something I already spent and entire post on, which you can read here. My guess it that a three year contract of $6M per year should get it done.

Next, I'll work to re-sign Kirk Hinrich. It seems that after a few down seasons, Tom Thibodeau discovered that the best way to use Hinrich is to limit his minutes. Playing fewer than 30 minutes a night, Kirk's shooting statistics have risen to career-bests. Even at age 33, he's still a very good role player especially because he can defend both guard positions. I think the veteran minimum of around $1.5M is fair for Captain Kirk.

Next I would try and re-sign DJ Augustine. He has returned to form as a creative attacking scorer who, while inefficient, can put points on the board off the bench. He's earned Thib's trust as an "irrational confidence guy", and has played enough defense to stay on the court. I'd offer him a chunk of my remaining cap space to stay, say $1.5M, but I wouldn't chase him if another team offered him a lucrative deal.

Finally, I'd use my last scrap of cap space to sign a cheap big man to replace Nazr Mohammed. Greg Smith of the Houston Rockets is one example; he's young, long, and shown some flashes as a rebounder and rim protector. Buried on the bench behind Dwight Howard and former Bull Omer Asik, the market for his services will probably be depressed.

End game

After all these wheelings and dealings, here's what my roster looks like:
PG: Rose, DJ
Wings: Butler, Hinrich, Dunleavy, Snell
Bigs: Noah, Gibson, Mirotic, Greg Smith
Other: Two first round rookies and one second round rookie

Two All-NBA first team candidates in Rose and Noah. The league's second best coach (after Pop). A deep and battle-proven group of role players, lead by Gibson and Butler. A wildcard with tons of potential in Mirotic. Two top-20 picks in a potentially great draft. This recipe is good enough at both ends to contend for a title, and it's all possible under the salary cap, let alone the tax line.